International trade seems back on track with the signing of the Phase 1 deal between China and the US, central banks remain accommodative, bonds are high, housing demand is rising in US and UK, and there is no apparent inflation.

No reason to worry then? Unfortunately, there might be. The Guardian reports that Kristalina Georgieva, the new head of the International Monetary Fund, warned last week that the global economy risks a return of the Great Depression, driven by inequality and financial sector instability.

Basically, our situation is very similar to the “roaring 1920s”, which, as we know, ended with the great market crash of 1929.

“In the UK, for example, the top 10% now control nearly as much wealth as the bottom 50% (…) this troubling trend is reminiscent of the early part of the 20th century – when the twin forces of technology and integration led to the first gilded age, the roaring 20s, and, ultimately, financial disaster.”

Meanwhile, world stocks were trading just below record highs today. The American stock market is closed for the holiday dedicated to Martin Luther King. Investors’minds are on this week's central bank meetings, economic data and earnings. Also present is the rise on oil prices after blockades affected two Libyan oilfields.

The Davos Forum will be held from Tuesday to Friday and the first 2020 meeting of the ECB on Thursday. Major indicators are in sight: the German ZEW Financial Confidence Index (Tuesday) and the IHS Markit flash PMI indices for the world's major economies on Friday.

The beginning of the week is relatively quiet on the macroeconomic front, especially with the closure of Wall Street for a holiday. This morning, Japan's Industrial Production for December was revised down from -0.9% on first reading to -1%.