Iran aims for 5.7mn b/d liquids output capacity by 2030

Iran's state-owned NIOC has set out an ambitious target to boost the sanctions-hit country's crude and condensate production capacity to 5.7mn b/d by 2030, from around 4.6mn b/d today.

Iran's current crude production capacity is around 3.8mn b/d, and its condensate capacity 800,000 b/d. The plan would raise the former to 4.7mn b/d and the latter to 1mn b/d, "by attracting investment", NIOC's director of integrated planning Karim Zobeidi told a meeting of NIOC and capital market representatives late yesterday.

NIOC also aims to boost domestic gas output to 1.5bn m³/d over this period, from close to 1bn m³/d today, Zobeidi said, through completion of key projects including the development of phase 11 of the offshore giant South Pars gas field, and the Kish and North Pars fields. All these are currently under Iranian operatorship.

Zobeidi did not disclose the capital expenditure requirement for such an expansion, highlighting only the "important" role that domestic investors could play, particularly at a time when Iran is unable to attract any serious foreign investment because of US sanctions.

"The participation of local investors to fund the drilling of new wells is most important," he said. "And projects to maintain production levels through the work-over of existing wells, and construct processing facilities and new pipelines can also be funded through domestic investment."

Pipe dream

Iran has been trying to press ahead with capacity expansion plans through the severe restraints placed on its economy by sanctions former US President Donald Trump re-imposed after he unilaterally exited the nuclear deal in 2018. NIOC has awarded domestic companies key field-development contracts that were originally earmarked for foreign companies before the sanctions were reintroduced, including for the South Azadegan oil field, South Pars phase 11 and the Farzad gas field.

But unless the US lifts sanctions these latest targets may prove to be little more than a pipe dream. Iran does not have the necessary funds, technology or know-how to deliver on its own. A similarly-ambitious capacity expansion plan put forward in 2016, but ultimately shelved because of sanctions, was said at the time to require $130bn in investment.

Argus estimated Iran's crude output at 2.47mn b/d in December, up from below 2mn b/d in the third quarter of last year but down markedly from the 3.83mn b/d it produced pre-sanctions in the first quarter of 2018.

By Nader Itayim