And in this respect, it's fair to say that the latest data makes it possible to imagine a return to cheap money. Falling bond yields are fueling this fantasy. The latest test came today, with inflation figures for the United States. Inflation continues to fall, with the Core Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index – excluding volatile components such as food and oil - up 3.5% on an annual basis, which is in line with expectations.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis also showed the PCE Price Index showed a 3% gain on a yearly basis in October, which was below 3.4% the previous month and also in line with expectations.

Since the start of the month, the S&P500 is already up 8.6%, better than any month since July 2022. As for the Nasdaq 100, after an 11% rise since November 1, it's less than 5% away from its 2021 peak. And I'm not even talking about the bond market, which is set to have its best month since... 2008.

Weekly jobless claims also came in in line with expectations, at 218,000 last week. Futures reacted well to this new confirmation that inflation and the job market is cooling.

Yesterday, European stock markets moved forward again, but at a slower pace. The publication of lower-than-expected preliminary German and Spanish inflation figures for November had little effect. Only London took a nosedive, hampered by oil stocks.

With corporate earnings likely to resume their upward trend, the prospect of lower interest rates, the economy holding up well and volatility low, investors are delighted to see the stars aligning in such a way. It also fuels the caution of the eternal sceptics, who always have trouble with such good configurations.

The Fed's Beige Book, published yesterday, pointed to a slowdown in economic growth in the United States, visible in durable goods orders and employment. There is talk of a weakening economy, especially after a solid Q3, which was revised upwards only yesterday. In the end, this gradual slowdown is entirely consistent with a soft landing, the preferred scenario of equity investors.

The rest of the news is dominated by OPEC+, which meets today to set production targets for 2024. This summit will take place entirely online.  Initially scheduled for last week, it was postponed due to disagreements between certain countries over production quotas. At the heart of the differences is the thorny issue of production quotas to support oil prices. Not all producers are equal in their ability to ease up on production. Saudi Arabia is struggling to halt the decline in the price of a barrel of oil, despite its considerable firepower in cutting production. As a result, Riyadh is putting pressure on its allies to do their bit too. Will the group find a compromise? The stakes are high, since the outlook for oil markets depends directly on OPEC's policy.

In the Asia-Pacific region, Tokyo continued to press the accelerator pedal, advancing by around 0.50%, enabling the Japanese index to close November with a gain of around 8%. The mood is more subdued in China, which is still reeling from mixed economic data overnight. The PMI indices are still hovering around the waterline, at 49.4 points for the manufacturing PMI and 50.2 points for the services PMI. In both cases, economists were expecting a tad better.

Today's economic highlights:

On the agenda today, Japan's retail consumption and industrial production figures, followed by China's PMIs. In France, economic confidence, EU harmonized CPI and PPI are on the agenda. Germany will publish the change in unemployment and the EU will present the November CPI and unemployment rate. In the US, we have new jobless claims, the PCE Core deflator, personal income and household consumption, the MNI Chicago PMI and, finally, ongoing GM home resales. The full agenda is here. 

The dollar is up 0.4% against the euro and the pound to EUR 0.9149 and GBP 0.7909. The ounce of gold is trading at USD 2037. Oil regained ground, with North Sea Brent at USD 83.85 a barrel and US light crude WTI at USD 78.74. The yield on 10-year US debt fell to 4.30%. Bitcoin is trading at around USD 37,700.

In corporate news:

  • Occidental Petroleum is in talks to buy CrownRock, a major energy producer in Texas, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday. The deal could value CrownRock at more than $10 billion, including debt.
  • Rover Group - The pet care company announced Wednesday that private equity firm BLACKSTONE will buy it in a $2.3 billion all-cash deal.
  • Vista Outdoor - The board of directors of the sports and outdoor goods group rejected a $1.91 billion cash-and-stock merger offer from Czech arms manufacturer Colt CZ Group.
  • Synopsis on Wednesday forecast first-quarter sales ahead of Wall Street expectations, with artificial intelligence boosting demand for the company's chip design software. The stock gained 1.9% after the close. Synopsys forecasts sales for the current quarter of between $1.63 billion and $1.66 billion, above the consensus of $1.60 billion.
  • Salesforce was up 8% after the close, as the company raised its annual earnings forecast and anticipated fourth-quarter sales of between $9.18 and $9.23 billion, against consensus of $9.21 billion.
  • PVH - The apparel company fell by 4% after the close, with third-quarter sales of $2.36 billion below consensus of $2.41 billion.
  • Pure Storage - The data storage company was down 14.3% after the close, as the company forecast fourth-quarter sales of $782 million, against analysts' estimates of $919.4 million.
  • Snowflake - The data storage company rises 7.6% after the close, with third-quarter revenues of $698.5 million exceeding consensus of $673.3 million.
  • United Auto Workers said Wednesday it was launching a groundbreaking initiative to unionize the entire U.S. auto industry, including Tesla and Rivian.
  • Phillips 66 - Elliott Investment Management took a $1 billion stake in the oil refiner and urged it to reorganize its board to improve performance.
  • Victoria’s Secret - The clothing retailer is down 1.44% after the close, as the company forecasts adjusted earnings for the fiscal year of $1.85 to $2.25 per share, against a consensus of $2.16.
  • Broadcom - The chipmaker will review its strategic options for two business units of VMware, acquired in November, Insider reports Wednesday.
  • Discover Financial Services said Wednesday it was considering a sale of its student loan portfolio.
  • Robinhood Markets - The trading app operator said on Thursday that it would roll out its brokerage service in the UK.
  • Meta Platforms - The group's ad-free paid subscription service, rolled out in Europe this month, breaches European consumer law, the bloc's largest consumer group said on Thursday, filing a complaint with consumer protection authorities.

Analyst recommendations:

  • Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.: CIBC Capital Markets maintains its outperform rating and reduces the target price from CAD 88 to CAD 84.
  • B&M European Value Retail S.A.: Peel Hunt upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from GBX 520 to GBX 700.
  • Blackrock, Inc.: Goldman Sachs maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 719 to USD 793.
  • Blackstone Inc.: Goldman Sachs maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 105 to USD 115.
  • Brookfield Asset Management Ltd.: Goldman Sachs maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from CAD 50.92 to CAD 41.
  • Costco Wholesale Corporation: Telsey Advisory Group maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 600 to USD 625.
  • Crowdstrike Holdings, Inc.: DZ Bank AG Research maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 215 to USD 245.
  • Dollar Tree, Inc.: Goldman Sachs maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 137 to USD 144.
  • Duke Energy Corporation: Wells Fargo upgrades to overweight from equalweight with a price target raised from USD 94 to USD 103.
  • Eli Lilly And Company: Berenberg maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 600 to USD 680.
  • Ge Healthcare Technologies Inc.: Jefferies initiates a Hold recommendation with a target price of USD 80.
  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company: Morgan Stanley upgrades to equal weight from underweight with a target price of USD 16.
  • Hormel Foods Corporation: Morningstar downgrades to hold from buy with a price target reduced from USD 37 to USD 31.
  • Icon Public Limited Company: Deutsche Bank maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 295 to USD 320.
  • Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. L.P.: Goldman Sachs maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 79 to USD 87.
  • Mcdonald's Corporation: Citigroup remains neutral recommendation with a price target raised from USD 280 to USD 310.
  • Moody's Corporation: Wolfe Research maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 390 to USD 405.
  • Nutrien Ltd.: BNP Paribas Exane downgrades to neutral from outperform with a price target reduced from USD 66 to USD 56.
  • Okta, Inc.: Wells Fargo downgrades to equalweight from overweight with a price target reduced from USD 80 to USD 70.
  • Pinterest, Inc.: Jefferies upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from USD 32 to USD 41.
  • S&P Global, Inc.: Wolfe Research maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 453 to USD 480.
  • Salesforce.com, Inc.: Piper Sandler & Co maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target raised from USD 232 to USD 266.
  • Servicenow, Inc.: Wells Fargo maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 675 to USD 725.
  • Shell Plc: Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg downgrades to hold from buy with a target price of GBX 2600.
  • Snap Inc.: Jefferies upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from USD 12 to USD 16.
  • Snowflake Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 215 to USD 230.
  • Synopsys Inc.: Wolfe Research maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 485 to USD 595.
  • T. Rowe Price Group Inc.: Goldman Sachs maintains its sell recommendation and raises the target price from USD 82 to USD 90.
  • Trane Technologies Plc: CICC initiates an outperform recommendation with a target price of USD 252.96.
  • Walt Disney Company (The): President Capital Management Corp maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 105 to USD 115.
  • Wise Plc: Autonomous Research upgrades to outperform from underperform with a price target raised from GBP 4.90 to GBP 9.90.