"Patience is the mother of all virtues" This proverb also applies to us investors. And more than that, it should keep you away from that irresistible urge for action that often characterizes our "FOMO" behavior. The fear of missing an opportunity has lost more billions than you could ever count. So relax, take time to think, and when the right opportunity presents itself, act.

Why such a digression? Let's return to the case of the dollar-yen. Last September 11, we ran the headline "BOJ intervention likely?" in reference to a possible change in monetary policy, one of the corollaries of which would have been a weaker yen. We went on to say that "the break of 144.45 will confirm the end of the rise initiated in 2023, with a first return to 138.07/137.20". YES, there's a difference between having an idea (macro or micro) and translating it into a trade with a high probability of success. I'm a fan of confirming an idea by price action. In other words, it's important to have a list of themes under one's belt and then wait for the market to confirm the idea. This is what happened with the USDJPY. On November 20, we noted in reference to the turn taken by the dollar that "even the USDJPY is starting to show signs of running out of steam. We'll be keeping a close eye on 149.10 to sell off our long positions and attempt a trend reversal with 144.67 as our target."

What happens next?

After touching above 144.67, a low was recorded around 141.70, and a stabilization phase should follow, with initial resistance around 146.10/33 max 148.15, before considering a new downtrend to 139.60/138.86 max 136.70.

Elsewhere in the news, the US dollar continues to recover above 102.50/20 and is closing in on its first resistance at 104.65. Should this be breached, we could see a more significant recovery towards 105.50/90 before a new bearish sequence. The kiwi and aussie have unsurprisingly seen some profit-taking around the 0.6190 and 0.6700/10 levels. If these levels are breached, much more ambitious targets can be envisaged for the months ahead. In the meantime, we can watch for initial support at 0.6085 and 0.6505 to contain the current weakness.

A brief aside on the GBPAUD. The pair is currently evolving within a narrow consolidation channel whose limits lie at 1.89 and 1.93. We'll be waiting for the lower boundary to break before taking a sell position in the next few months.