Financials Vale S.A. BME

Equities

XVALO

BRVALEACNOR0

Iron & Steel

Real-time Estimate Tradegate Other stock markets 09:00:16 26/06/2024 BST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
10.85 ^EUR	+1.69%		-1.30%	-22.90%

06-24	Brazil prosecutors seek $668 million from Vale, BHP for gender violations in reparations	RE
06-21	Morgan Stanley Adjusts Vale Price Target to $15.50 From $18, Maintains Overweight Rating	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	68,013	86,310	68,381	76,311	68,470	47,699	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	73,719	90,163	73,861	76,311	78,030	59,961	59,526	58,391
P/E ratio	-40.2 x	17.7 x	3.13 x	4.15 x	8.7 x	5.22 x	5.94 x	5.89 x
Yield	-	7.11%	19.7%	-	-	8.04%	7.77%	7.9%
Capitalization / Revenue	1.81 x	2.16 x	1.25 x	1.74 x	1.64 x	1.17 x	1.16 x	1.16 x
EV / Revenue	1.96 x	2.25 x	1.36 x	1.74 x	1.87 x	1.48 x	1.45 x	1.42 x
EV / EBITDA	4.1 x	4.11 x	2.36 x	3.83 x	4.34 x	3.42 x	3.33 x	3.25 x
EV / FCF	9.94 x	9.11 x	3.61 x	12.6 x	10.8 x	12.2 x	11.8 x	9.57 x
FCF Yield	10.1%	11%	27.7%	7.91%	9.28%	8.22%	8.46%	10.5%
Price to Book	1.85 x	2.48 x	2.03 x	-	-	1.04 x	0.92 x	0.83 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	5,128,282	5,129,911	4,891,940	4,542,591	4,302,854	4,280,331	-	-
Reference price ²	13.26	16.82	13.98	16.80	15.91	11.14	11.14	11.14
Announcement Date	20/02/20	25/02/21	24/02/22	16/02/23	22/02/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	37,570	40,018	54,502	43,839	41,784	40,634	40,992	41,158
EBITDA ¹	17,987	21,954	31,343	19,931	17,961	17,542	17,850	17,960
EBIT ¹	14,261	18,720	28,309	16,760	14,891	13,931	13,628	13,355
Operating Margin	37.96%	46.78%	51.94%	38.23%	35.64%	34.28%	33.25%	32.45%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-2,775	4,969	29,541	19,781	11,151	13,013	11,967	11,998
Net income ¹	-1,683	4,881	22,445	18,788	7,983	9,514	8,933	8,583
Net margin	-4.48%	12.2%	41.18%	42.86%	19.11%	23.41%	21.79%	20.85%
EPS ²	-0.3300	0.9500	4.470	4.050	1.830	2.136	1.875	1.892
Free Cash Flow ¹	7,420	9,892	20,449	6,039	7,245	4,929	5,034	6,103
FCF margin	19.75%	24.72%	37.52%	13.78%	17.34%	12.13%	12.28%	14.83%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	41.25%	45.06%	65.24%	30.3%	40.34%	28.1%	28.2%	33.98%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	-	202.66%	91.11%	32.14%	90.76%	51.81%	56.36%	71.11%
Dividend per Share ²	-	1.196	2.753	-	-	0.8961	0.8656	0.8800
Announcement Date	20/02/20	25/02/21	24/02/22	16/02/23	22/02/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2020 S1	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2
Net sales ¹	14,487	12,500	11,260	11,157	9,929	11,941	8,434	9,673	10,378	13,054	8,459	10,121	10,632	12,108	9,164	10,539
EBITDA ¹	6,627	4,528	6,385	5,254	3,666	4,626	3,576	3,874	4,085	6,334	3,438	4,648	4,633	5,280	3,942	4,672
EBIT ¹	5,005	3,774	5,699	4,444	2,891	3,726	2,920	3,095	3,323	5,479	2,448	3,427	3,622	4,683	3,039	-
Operating Margin	34.55%	30.19%	50.61%	39.83%	29.12%	31.2%	34.62%	32%	32.02%	41.97%	28.94%	33.86%	34.07%	38.68%	33.16%	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-	9,046	6,569	-	5,248	2,908	-	-	2,912	3,151	2,135	3,006	3,157	4,023	2,826	-
Net income ¹	-	5,427	4,458	6,151	4,455	3,724	1,837	892	2,769	2,418	1,679	2,433	2,691	3,175	2,178	2,462
Net margin	-	43.42%	39.59%	55.13%	44.87%	31.19%	21.78%	9.22%	26.68%	18.52%	19.85%	24.04%	25.31%	26.23%	23.77%	23.36%
EPS ²	-	1.130	0.9300	1.320	0.9800	0.8300	0.4100	0.2000	0.6411	0.5600	0.3900	0.5338	0.5500	0.6769	-	-
Dividend per Share ²	-	0.1309	0.1435	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.3400	-	-	-
Announcement Date	30/07/20	24/02/22	27/04/22	28/07/22	27/10/22	16/02/23	26/04/23	28/07/23	26/10/23	22/02/24	24/04/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	5,706	3,853	5,480	-	9,560	12,262	11,827	10,692
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	0.3172 x	0.1755 x	0.1748 x	-	0.5323 x	0.699 x	0.6626 x	0.5953 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	7,420	9,892	20,449	6,039	7,245	4,929	5,034	6,103
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	19.4%	13.2%	63.9%	-	20.4%	23.3%	20.6%	17.8%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	9.02%	5.31%	24.7%	21.3%	8.82%	9.74%	9.45%	9.34%
Assets ¹	-18,649	91,860	90,724	88,168	90,510	97,698	94,483	91,888
Book Value Per Share ²	7.190	6.790	6.870	-	-	10.70	12.20	13.40
Cash Flow per Share ²	-	-	5.110	2.480	3.010	3.030	2.420	-
Capex ¹	3,372	4,430	5,227	5,446	5,920	6,434	6,380	6,278
Capex / Sales	8.98%	11.07%	9.59%	12.42%	14.17%	15.83%	15.56%	15.25%
Announcement Date	20/02/20	25/02/21	24/02/22	16/02/23	22/02/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Vale S.A.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

11.14 USD

Average target price

14.48 USD

Spread / Average Target

+29.93%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Iron Ore Mining

	1st Jan change	Capi.
FORTESCUE LTD	-25.47%	44.25B
NMDC LIMITED	+18.87%	9.06B
KUMBA IRON ORE LIMITED	-26.15%	7.83B
SHOUGANG HIERRO PERU S.A.A.	+0.91%	5.85B
CSN MINERAÇÃO S.A.	-34.99%	5.13B
NMDC STEEL LIMITED	+11.40%	2.02B
HAINAN MINING CO., LTD.	-2.28%	1.76B
HBIS RESOURCES CO., LTD.	+3.81%	1.57B
LABRADOR IRON ORE ROYALTY CORPORATION	-6.27%	1.4B

Iron Ore Mining