October 27, 2023
Good profitability and strong operating cash flow despite lower prices and higher wood raw material costs
EBITDA margin on 33%
Sales decreased 14% vs Q3 2022
- Price/mix -30%, volume 9%, currency 7%
EBITDA decreased 43% vs Q3 2022
- Lower prices
- Higher delivery volumes
- Positive currency effects
SEK 1.7 bn investment in wind power, securing SCAs high degree of self sufficiency in electricity
3
EBITDA (SEKm) | Industrial ROCE 1 |
1,417 | 12% |
EBITDA margin | Net debt/EBITDA |
32.9% | 1.4x |
1. LTM
EBITDA (SEKm) and EBITDA margin
3,121 | -43% | ||||||
2,684 | 2,806 | ||||||
2,608 | |||||||
2,484 | |||||||
1,981 | 2,055 | ||||||
59% | 1,700 | ||||||
53% | 52% | 53% | 50% | 1,417 | |||
41% | 43% | ||||||
37% | |||||||
33% | |||||||
Q3 '21 | Q4 '21 | Q1 '22 | Q2 '22 | Q3 '22 | Q4 '22 | Q1 '23 | Q2 '23 | Q3 '23 |
4
Net sales (SEKm) | EBITDA (SEKm) | EBITDA margin | |||||||
+17% | +20% | ||||||||
1,878 | 724 | 37.3% | 38.5% | ||||||
1,612 | 601 | ||||||||
Q3 2022 | Q3 2023 | Q3 2022 | Q3 2023 | Q3 2022 | Q3 2023 |
Price development - Pulpwood and Sawlogs
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
Q3 '21 | Q4 '21 | Q1 '22 | Q2 '22 | Q3 '22 | Q4 '22 | Q1 '23 | Q2 '23 | Q3 '23 |
Pulpwood Sawlogs
Stable wood supply to industries
Sales up 17%
- Higher prices
EBITDA up 20%
- Higher harvesting level own forest
- Higher prices
5
Net sales (SEKm) | EBITDA (SEKm) | EBITDA margin | |||||
-12% | -54% | ||||||
1,412 | 351 | 24.9% | |||||
1,244 |
161 | 13.0% |
Q3 2022 | Q3 2023 | Q3 2022 | Q3 2023 | Q3 2022 | Q3 2023 |
Price development - Solid Wood Products
120
100
80
60
40
Q3 '21 | Q4 '21 | Q1 '22 | Q2 '22 | Q3 '22 | Q4 '22 | Q1 '23 | Q2 '23 | Q3 '23 |
Price index SEK
Sales down 12%
- Lower prices
- Higher volumes
EBITDA down 54%
- Lower prices
6
Stock of sawn pine and spruce wood, Sweden and Finland (k m3) | Price development sawn pine and spruce, Sweden (index) |
6,000 | Normalized monthly level |
5,000 | |
4,000 | |
3,000 | |
2,000 | |
1,000 | |
0 |
Production of sawn pine and spruce wood, Sweden and Finland (k m3)
3,000 | Normalized monthly level |
2,500 | |
2,000 | |
1,500 | |
1,000 | |
500 | |
0 |
340 | ||||||||||||||
290 | ||||||||||||||
240 | ||||||||||||||
Spruce | ||||||||||||||
190 | ||||||||||||||
Pine | ||||||||||||||
140 | ||||||||||||||
90 | ||||||||||||||
Jan-16 | Jul-16 | Jan-17 | Jul-17 | Jan-18 | Jul-18 | Jan-19 | Jul-19 | Jan-20 | Jul-20 | Jan-21 | Jul-21 | Jan-22 | Jul-22 | Jan-23 |
- Low consumption but balanced producer stock levels
- Lower production in all regions
- Low consumer stock levels
7
Note: Normalized monthly level 2016-2022.
Source: Skogsindustrierna.
Net sales (SEKm) | EBITDA (SEKm) | EBITDA margin | ||||
-14% | -80% | |||||
1,897 | 848 | 44.7% | ||||
1,636 |
173 | 10.5% | ||||||
Q3 2022 | Q3 2023 | Q3 2022 | Q3 2023 | Q3 2022 | Q3 2023 |
Price development - NBSK
140
120
100
80
Q3 '21 | Q4 '21 | Q1 '22 | Q2 '22 | Q3 '22 | Q4 '22 | Q1 '23 | Q2 '23 | Q3 '23 |
Price index SEK
Ramp up of new CTMP line according to plan
Sales down 14%
- Lower prices
- Higher volumes
- Positive currency effects
EBITDA down 80%
- Lower prices
- Higher wood raw material costs + Positive currency effects
Planned maintenance stop in Östrand started at end of quarter
8
NBSK pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries (Mt)
15.0
14.5
14.0
13.5
13.0
12.5
NBSK deliveries | NBSK PIX Price Europe (RHS) | |
Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply)
60 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
55 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
45 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
40 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
35 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
30 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
25 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | Apr-17 | Jul-17 | Apr-18 | Jul-18 | Apr-19 | Jul-19 | Apr-20 | Jul-20 | Apr-21 | Jul-21 | Apr-22 | Jul-22 | Apr-23 | Jul-23 | ||||||||||||
Jan-17 | Oct-17 | Jan-18 | Oct-18 | Jan-19 | Oct-19 | Jan-20 | Oct-20 | Jan-21 | Oct-21 | Jan-22 | Oct-22 | Jan-23 |
Hardwood pulp inventories (days of supply)
1,600 | 80 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1,500 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1,400 | 70 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1,300 | 60 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1,200 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1,100 | 50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1,000 | 40 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
900 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
30 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
800 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
700 | 20 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
600 | Apr-17 | Jul-17 | Oct-17 | Apr-18 | Jul-18 | Oct-18 | Apr-19 | Jul-19 | Oct-19 | Apr-20 | Jul-20 | Oct-20 | Apr-21 | Jul-21 | Oct-21 | Apr-22 | Jul-22 | Oct-22 | Apr-23 | Jul-23 | |||||||
Jan-17 | Jan-18 | Jan-19 | Jan-20 | Jan-21 | Jan-22 | Jan-23 | |||||||||||||||||||||
- European price reached bottom in Q3, price increases announced from October
- Improving demand in China since May
- Inventories still on high levels for softwood pulp
9
Net sales (SEKm) | EBITDA (SEKm) | EBITDA margin | ||||
-18% | -65% | |||||
1,694 | 719 | 42.4% | ||||
1,385 |
253 | 18.3% |
Q3 2022 | Q3 2023 | Q3 2022 | Q3 2023 | Q3 2022 | Q3 2023 |
Price development - Kraftliner
Ramp up new paper machine Obbola according to plan
Sales down 18%
- Lower prices
- Higher volumes
- Positive currency effects
EBITDA down 65%
- Lower prices
140
120
100
80
Q3 '21 | Q4 '21 | Q1 '22 | Q2 '22 | Q3 '22 | Q4 '22 | Q1 '23 | Q2 '23 | Q3 '23 |
Planned maintenance stop in Munksund
Price index SEK
10
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SCA - Svenska Cellulosa AB published this content on 27 October 2023 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 27 October 2023 08:27:40 UTC.