MPC Energy N : Q3 2023 Webcast Transcript

Transcript for Q3 2023 Results

MPC Energy Solutions N.V.

TRANSCRIPT FOR MPC ENERGY SOLUTIONS Q3 2023 RESULTS

00:00:01 - 00:00:45

Maria: Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Q3 2023 webcast of MPC Energy Solutions. I have the pleasure of guiding you through the presentation and the Q&A later on. This morning at 7:00 AM, MPC Energy Solutions published its results for the third quarter of 2023. We would therefore like to take the opportunity to walk you through some of the highlights of the results and share some insights into project updates over the last few weeks with you. After our presentation, we will as usual hold a Q&A session in which we'd be happy to answer any questions that you may have. You can send in your questions via the text function at any time during the presentation, and we will answer them at the end.

00:00:46 - 00:01:50

Maria: This webcast is being recorded and will be published later together with a transcript on our website. Before we get started, let me remind everyone that certain statements made on this call, including financial estimates and comments about our plans, expectations, beliefs, or business prospects, and other statements that are not historical in nature may constitute forward-looking statements under the securities laws. We make these statements on the basis of our views and assumptions regarding future events and business performance at the time we make them, and we do not undertake any obligation to update these statements in the future. Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from the results expressed or implied in light of a variety of factors, including factors contained in our financial statements, filings, and other releases. Now I would like to hand over to Stefan Meichsner, the CFO of MPC Energy Solutions. Good morning, Stefan.

00:01:54 - 00:02:44

Stefan Meichsner: Thank you, Maria, and good morning, everyone. I appreciate that you're joining us today for our third-quarter update. When I spoke to you a few months ago, our company had just undergone a leadership change, and I'm happy to say that we have taken the time since to define adjustments to our strategic approach, and to really narrow down and prioritize our short-term goals and needs. Some decisions in this regard have already been taken, others will follow in the coming weeks and months, and I will share today what I can. However, before we look ahead into the future and what to expect from us, I'd like to take some time to review the year-to- date, starting with the most relevant updates on the project and company side.

00:02:44 - 00:03:52

Stefan Meichsner: As you know from our press releases, part of the strategic adjustment that we have made is the decision to exit our second CHP project in Puerto Rico. This project was under construction, in the early stages of construction and procurement, and we decided to use an opportunity to get out of the project and repatriate the funds that we had already invested. As a consequence, we are also no longer on the line for the funds that we originally committed. Why did we make this decision? Because neither combined heat and power nor Puerto Rico, for a number of reasons, is currently the focus of our activities. It's a market that is clearly more acceptable to US investors, especially when you look at the debt market and available funding for these sizes of projects along with other projects in the pipeline of our partner Enernet. That has a lot of appeals and a lot of merits for other investors, I'm sure, but they simply do not fit our own approach and our own priorities, neither strategically nor financially.

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00:03:52 - 00:04:21

Stefan Meichsner: As I said, the upside is that we will soon recover USD 2.4 million of the money that we already invested, which in turn will shore up our free cash reserves, which we can then redeploy. We no longer have to provide the funding to complete the construction of the project. If you remember, the total investment costs for MPCES for this project were up to $6 million, and we no longer need to invest the $6 million, which of course fits us very nicely.

00:04:22 - 00:05:00

Stefan Meichsner: Another update concerns our joint venture in Colombia, the solar PV plant Planeta Rica. This is a 50/50 joint venture we have with the French developer Akuo, who's also the construction manager for the project. The project, at least the solar plant has completed construction, actually did so a while ago and underwent the necessary testing that could be done without being connected to the grid. Unfortunately, the connection to the grid continues to being delayed. This is out of our scope. It's the responsibility of the local grid operator, and at the moment, there is nothing that we can do other than be supportive and wait.

00:05:00 - 00:05:23

Stefan Meichsner: The new updated timeline that we have aligned with the grid operator is that the plant will connect in mid-November and that it will then start to generate income for its shareholders. Unfortunately, given that we believed the plant would connect earlier this year, it is indeed a bit of a downside for our year-end projec- tions, and we'll get to that later today.

00:05:25 - 00:06:10

Stefan Meichsner: Then, finally, our overall strategic partnership with the Enernet, has also seen a change. We noted this in this morning's released Q3 report. We did have an agreement with Enernet Global that allowed us a right of first refusal to the projects that they developed in selected countries. We have decided to end this collaboration agreement because the countries, especially Puerto Rico, and the CHP projects that Enernet is develop- ing, they are no longer part of our strategic focus and our financial focus. We also wanted to give Enernet the flexibility to engage with other investors in these projects from the very beginning and not be tied down to an agreement that we knew we would not make use of in the coming years.

00:06:11 - 00:06:38

Stefan Meichsner: We are still a shareholder in Enernet and we will remain a shareholder in Enernet. The company is a microgrid developer and is active not only in the Caribbean but also in Africa and Australia. It has a lot of potential. It has a strong portfolio. Just because the portfolio no longer fits our needs, it does fit the needs of other companies and investors. We believe there are a lot of upsides that Enernet can achieve, and that's why we, for now, will remain invested in the company.

00:06:43 - 00:08:03

Stefan Meichsner: Looking at the financials year to date, it is no surprise that all the numbers, output revenue, project EBITDA -the key metrics that we track during the year - are up. This is due to the fact that we have simply connected more projects to the grid. Three more came online this year. You see a natural uptick of course, in the

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TRANSCRIPT FOR MPC ENERGY SOLUTIONS Q3 2023 RESULTS

numbers. I'm also proud to say that, and we will get to that on the next slide, the third quarter of 2023 was the strongest quarter that we ever had in terms of output, in terms of revenue, in terms of project EBITDA. The numbers all outweighed previous quarters and certainly the previous year. To be more specific, year-to-date, we generated nearly 75 gigawatt hours of electricity and sold these to several off-takers. This corresponds to nearly USD 7 million in revenues and USD 3 million in project EBITDA. If you just look at the power-producing assets, if you exclude the trading losses that we had to incur in Colombia earlier this year connected to our solar PV plant, then the numbers are actually USD 6.3 million in revenue and USD 3.6 million in project EBITDA, reflecting that negative impact on the trading side. These losses from trading have now been contained, as you know, in early, late Q2, apologies.

00:08:03 - 00:08:52

Stefan Meichsner: Los Girasoles is connected to the grid. It is now fully operational. It is feeding electricity into the grid and it's generating income under the power purchase agreement. The trading losses are contained, and the losses that we incurred in the first half of the year will no longer impact the project down the road, which is, of course, a major milestone. We also remain well-capitalized. Our equity ratio is still significantly above 50 percent, as we did not amp up leverage on the corporate level this year, as we originally anticipated. During the Capital Markets Day, we shared that we wanted to benefit from the foreseeable downside trend of interest rates. Year-to- date, this has not happened, and therefore we have been very quiet on raising capital on the debt side, on a corporate level.

00:08:55 - 00:09:28

Stefan Meichsner: Looking at each individual quarter of this year, you can see that the portfolio, now that the projects are coming online and operational, started to show their full potential, we are clearly not where we want to be, but you can see that quarter over quarter, we have significantly increased our output because more projects came online. Also, this is part of the seasonal pattern that we see in most of our solar PV projects. Correspondingly revenues have gone up and project EBITDA has also gone up.

00:09:29 - 00:10:34

Stefan Meichsner: If we look at the individual projects that we have, our portfolio is still quite small, so it makes sense to look at each project individually. Our Santa Rosa/Villa Sol solar project in El Salvador is performing very well. It's one of our two prime assets that we currently hold. The same goes for Los Santos in Mexico, a project that we acquired in early 2022. On the downside, Neol CHP, one of our projects in Puerto Rico is unfortunately not running at full capacity. This is due to the fact that the off-taker this year has lower energy demands because he's undergoing restructuring, realigning its manufacturing site. Next year we will see an upside in that capacity. However, for now, the plant is not reaching its full output potential, and subsequently, revenues are below our expectations while costs are fairly fixed for these kinds of installations. This is another reason why we believe it makes sense to focus more on solar PV and less on more fixed, cost-driven CHP installations in the Caribbean.

00:10:36 - 00:11:31

Stefan Meichsner: For Los Girasoles, I've mentioned this before. The trading losses are what's keeping project EBITDA down overall, and what's creating a slightly negative impact on the overall result. However, we will see better numbers down the road because, as mentioned, the trading losses have been contained. All of this, unfor- tunately, forces us to lower our year-end outlook. We previously shared an expectation of USD 10 million in revenue and USD 7 million in project EBITDA. We are now lowering that outlook to USD 9 to 9.5 million in revenue

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TRANSCRIPT FOR MPC ENERGY SOLUTIONS Q3 2023 RESULTS

and USD 5 to 5.5 million in project EBITDA, having to factor in all of the downsides from the trading losses and the subdued operational performance from Neol CHP, and of course, the aforementioned delay of Planeta Rica to connect to the grid.

00:11:36 - 00:12:24

Stefan Meichsner: I do apologize. I have been dealing with a wasting cough this week and it's still not totally gone. If I am taking a break every now and then, thank you for your understanding. While 2023 is so far not entirely matching our expectations, we see a lot of upside potential for 2024. Due to the fact that, as I mentioned before, Neol CHP will not only see its full operational year for the first time, but the off-taker is also due to complete its restructuring of the manufacturing site, meaning that capacity of production on the side will go up and consequently energy demand will also go up so that our plant can produce closer to its full capacity.

00:12:25 - 00:12:58

Stefan Meichsner: For Santa Rosa and Villa Sol, the project that is already doing very well, we will see an uptick in the PPA price. The project experienced a small delay compared to what was defined in the power purchase agreement, which triggered a discount that had to be applied for the PPA price in 2023. That discount will go away in 2024, and therefore we should see power prices to increase by as much as 20 percent for next year, which will in turn elevate the output and the performance of the plant EBITDA.

00:13:00 - 00:14:04

Stefan Meichsner: To our plant Los Santos I we have made technical improvements during the year, both on the maintenance and the maintenance CapEx side. This is why the overall EBITDA margin from the project this year is a little bit lower than you would normally anticipate, but this will lead to improved output next year to increase production, the margins will return to the level that we expect them to be, which is around 75 percent of revenue. Los Girasoles, we no longer incur training losses. We will also be able to see the full operational year. We will actually be able to supply under the PPA and to just operate the project in its normal way. That means next year we will also see solid solar PV plant margins from the plant, and not something that is so dramatically lowered by energy trading in the spot market, which in Colombia, because of the massive draught this year, has been extremely challenging. Hedging instruments were not available, spot market prices were just significantly high.

00:14:04 - 00:14:32

Stefan Meichsner: The country relies on hydropower for its electricity demands, and when there is a significant draught, spot prices simply go up significantly. In the El Niño year that we are having this year, we just didn't see an opportunity to adequately hedge the exposure and that is why we incurred the losses. With Planeta RicA, of course, a fifth plant will soon connect to the grid, and this will overall give us an uptick in the performance.

00:14:32 - 00:15:38

Stefan Meichsner: There is plenty of upside for 2024, and we are 100 percent certain that we can benefit from these upsides, and that 2024 will see a significant elevation of the overall numbers that we can see from our portfolio. Another key metric that's important for us is our free cash position. We defined this as the cash that we have actually free to disburse for project investments, for funding our overhead and for spending it on development

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expenses. We stood at around 8 million by the end of September, the end of the third quarter. This does, of course, not yet factor in the 2.4 million we will return from the Añasco project in Puerto Rico. This will happen latest by March 2024. That is the time we gave our partner to make the repayment. Then we have other measures underway that I cannot elaborate on in detail today that we believe will also significantly ramp up our cash reserves by the end of the year.

00:15:38 - 00:16:45

Stefan Meichsner: For the simple purpose that I will go into in a minute. Where do we go from here? I spoke about strategic adjustments earlier in the call, and about steps that we're taking to really turn this company in the right direction. What I mean by that is that we're trying to build, in the short run, a profitable, self-sustaining business. The key measure for this is to shore up our free cash reserves. We are sitting on a solid cushion of free cash at the moment. We will improve this further, and we believe that this cash is relevant to really create the maximum number of alternatives. If we are not reliant on external funding to invest in new projects in an environ- ment, quite frankly, where interest rates are high, where debt funding is expensive, where equity funding is more expensive because return expectations are higher. If we have the cash reserves and if we find the right projects with the right returns, the returns that meet our benchmarks, then we can act very, very flexibly, and we do not have to rely on third-party funding to make this work.

00:16:45 - 00:17:02

Stefan Meichsner: This is why shoring up the cash reserves by exiting projects is one of the key measures that we are taking so that we can really be more flexible than we are today, and therefore have all the alternatives that we need, options that we need to have to make the right decisions.

00:17:04 - 00:17:41

Stefan Meichsner: We also need to optimize the performance of our portfolio. I have elaborated on what has not worked so well this year to date and the upsides that we will see in 2024. We have a good team working on this so that in 2024, we can eliminate the remaining issues that we're having in the operating portfolio. We will no longer see the ramp-up costs required in the first few months of operation so we should also see much better portfolio performance in 2024. This is clearly part of the necessary steps that we need to take in order to balance the cash flows that we see from our projects with the overhead and development spending.

00:17:42 - 00:18:18

Stefan Meichsner: On the other side, we want to be profitable in the short run. We want to be self-sustainable. The project cash flow is the source of income that we primarily need to make that happen. We will also put a much greater focus on greenfield developments. If you look at our portfolio today, there's one project that was already operational that we acquired. There are two projects that were developed by a third party, if you include Planeta Rica. There are two projects that we developed ourselves and that we brought online ourselves and took them all the way through construction.

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00:18:18 - 00:18:44

Stefan Meichsner: We will remain a full cycling IPP. However, at the same time, the greenfield development is really where we can create the greatest value, where we can make sure that if we bring in co-investors, we are the ones collecting a development fee and not paying a development fee. This, of course, can boost returns significantly, and this is what we will focus on more, and which project is particularly concerned I will go into on the next slide.

00:18:45 - 00:19:25

Stefan Meichsner: We have spoken about selective farmdowns before. We are still in the process of making these transactions happen and I believe down the road, the lesson learned is also we don't have to invest 100 percent for each project ourselves. It's perfectly fine to develop a project to ready-to-build, then farm down, sell part of the project pre-construction, bring in a co-investor, thereby collect the development fee, reduce our own capital requirements, and still be able to build our operating portfolio by staying invested. This is what we will try to achieve with the upcoming projects, and this is why the greater focus on greenfield development to form the basis for this is so important.

00:19:30 - 00:20:18

Stefan Meichsner: Another key aspect that was elaborated on in our Q3 report as well, is that we need to reduce our overhead costs. We're not growing as quickly as we anticipated because of the many market challenges that we have faced. Our short-term need is to reduce overall overhead spending. We predict that we can achieve 1.5 to 2 million in cuts next year. A significant part of this is one-off items that we faced this year for certain measures that we took and certain initiatives that we started. This is fully reflected in our P&L year-to-date. So around 4 million overhead costs you see in our P&L roughly a million is for one-off items that we simply will no longer see in 2024.

00:20:18 - 00:20:59

Stefan Meichsner: There's already a significant driver and cost reduction that we can anticipate, and on top of that, we will focus on fewer projects to move forward to ready-to-build, which in turn reduces a lot of support costs that we have for the individual project companies. There are several hundred thousand dollars that we can save on that front. Then, depending on the FIDs that we're taking or not taking, this will, of course, impact the overall staffing that we require, depending on whether we take an FID or we decide to sell a project, that will, of course, have an impact on the overall headcount that we need, and potential redundancies that we will see.

00:20:59 - 00:21:32

Stefan Meichsner: We will definitely see costs coming down. Whether it's one and a half or two million depends on the investment decisions that we will be taking in the next months. Speaking about this, there are in particular two projects in our development backlog that currently see a lot of momentum. The first one is our solar PV plant in Guatemala. The plant has already secured its construction permit. Due diligence with the bank is underway. We have secured exceptionally positive debt terms for this project, which we are very happy with.

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00:21:32 - 00:22:15

Stefan Meichsner: Our team is now working hard to conclude the development phase, to conclude the financing negotiations, and we are also actively looking for co-investors for this project. The FID will come up soon. We have not yet made a decision, but it's clear that especially this project in San Patricio has not only seen exceptional progress, so far it also checks all the right boxes when it comes to potential returns and when it comes to the overall structure of the project. I'm highly confident that even with the available cash that we have bringing in co- investors, this is a positive FID that we will take in the coming weeks. However, nothing is decided yet, and once we've taken a decision either way we will, of course, give you an update.

00:22:15 - 00:23:06

Stefan Meichsner: The other one is the Project Acacia in Jamaica. The long-expected tender in Jamaica has finally been announced. Final tender documents are being shared. The deadline for submitting a bid is in February of next year. We believe our project is in a very good position in a competitive environment to make a successful bid, but we are still assessing whether we should enter the bid alone, whether we should bring in the co-investors, or whether we should part with the project now and have someone else take the opportunity, because, of course, there's no definite outcome to the tender and we need to be very selective about which projects we pursue, especially given that we have so many other good developments in Guatemala, Panama, and El Salvador that we ultimately want to pursue. It's very challenging to do all of this with our small setup at the same time, and that's why we will be very selective.

00:23:06 - 00:23:47

Stefan Meichsner: Again, a FID for Jamaica has not been taken, but this is also a decision that we will be facing in the upcoming months, and we're doing everything to be in the right position to make the right decisions. Our backlog, overall, it remains significant in size. It remains very strong. I do believe it deserves a fair value assessment that we're currently not seeing reflected in the valuation of our company, and we are working on steps to make sure that we can provide price points and data points to the market to be more transparent on this. This is basically, built on the solid foundation that we already have, what the company can look like in the upcoming years is reflected here in our development backlog.

00:23:51 - 00:24:09

Stefan Meichsner: This already concludes my prepared remarks for today. Of course, as always, more than happy to take any questions you might have, and I will, first of all, thank you for listening. Then hand the call back to Maria to moderate the Q&A. Thank you very much.

00:24:10 - 00:24:41

Maria: Thank you very much, Stefan. We will now continue with the Q&A session. Just a small note from my side. Please note that depending on your screen size, you may have to scroll a little bit down the page in order to see the chat box at the bottom of the page. I can see that the first questions already came in. Let me start with the first question. Stefan, do you already have initial talks with any partners to co-invest within your project pipeline?

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00:24:42 - 00:25:06

Stefan Meichsner: The answer is yes, but please understand that we cannot share any details for the matter of confidentiality. However, of course, once we have reached certain milestones in these discussions, we will immediately release the update to the market, but the answer is yes. Co-investments are a cornerstone of every future investment that we will make. Also the farmdown plans that we have. Of course, we are in active discussions.

00:25:08 - 00:25:18

Maria: Thank you. The next question that came in regarding Los Girasoles project. What is the expected margin levels in 2024 on this project?

00:25:19 - 00:25:41

Stefan Meichsner: With this Colombian asset, we expect around 70 percent EBITDA margin from power production only now that the trading losses are contained. For 2024, I would expect revenues to be around USD 1.2 to 1.3 million, depending on the exchange rate, of course, and operating profits between USD 900,000 and 1 million.

00:25:45 - 00:25:54

Maria: We have another question here. Do the measures you presented mean that there will be a strict cap on the expansion and growth of the portfolio?

00:25:56 - 00:26:35

Stefan Meichsner: No, I wouldn't say there's a strict cap on expansion plans. We still intend to grow the portfolio based on the foundation that we've built in the past years. As I elaborated, there are two FIDs coming up shortly. Especially, as I said, the Guatemala project really hits all the boxes in terms of benchmark returns, in terms of progress with the talks, and with co-investors. The development is going very well. The risk exposure in this project, because certain items are outsourced to the off-taker, is really very good.

00:26:35 - 00:27:14

Stefan Meichsner: A key, of course, to grow more quickly is availability of funding. In the current environment, we know that the debt costs are high. We know that equity costs are higher. We need to be very mindful about making decisions to raise capital. This is why it's so important that we shore up our own cash reserves so that we can make these investments, even with external funding to our view might be available, but simply not at the right attractive conditions. It will always be a mix of external funding and internal funding. This will also determine the pace of our growth, but of course, we want to build a significant IPP in the region, and that's why we will continue to invest in projects.

00:27:18 - 00:27:24

Maria: Okay, next question regarding the share price. Given the development of the share price, can we expect buybacks?

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00:27:26 - 00:28:04

Stefan Meichsner: I believe our money is best invested in developing projects to create the greatest value, and then to invest and co-invest in projects that deliver exceptional returns. At the moment, share buybacks are not on my priority list, because I believe the money belongs into these projects, because we want to build a lasting company, a bigger company, a more profitable, and self-sustainable company. We have not taken any steps to allow share buybacks, which, by the way, would require the approval of the general meeting. If we plan to do so, it would have to be approved first, and that means our plans will have to be made public first.

00:28:07 - 00:28:16

Maria: Thanks, Stefan. Next question regarding the cost-cutting program. How exactly are you planning to cut costs and for how long?

00:28:17 - 00:28:46

Stefan Meichsner: Yes, I think as I mentioned, in 2024, what we will definitely see is a reduction of around USD 1 million from one-off items that we face this year for ramp-up costs and projects for certain initiatives that we took on the corporate level, also related to assessing the option of fundraising this year. That's a key component. That's basically half of the target that we have for next year. The rest then we will lower spending because we have fewer projects to focus on.

00:28:46 - 00:29:34

Stefan Meichsner: That means to support cost we currently pay to third parties, will be lower as well as well as the development expenses. Then, as I said, it really depends on our short-term investment decisions. If we are building Guatemala and if we're entering the tender in Jamaica, of course, the current structure that we have needs to stay in place. If we, for whatever reason, decide not to invest in these projects but rather part with them, sell them entirely, then I cannot rule out that there will be redundancy simply for the fact that we do not require certain services. However, we are working very hard to prevent this, because this is clearly not the steps that we want to take. The main drivers will be to cut down on third-party costs for project support and administrative support, and also to eliminate the one-off items and make sure they don't pop up again next year.

00:29:37 - 00:29:47

Maria: All right, and given the time, maybe we come to the last question for today. What kind of projects are you looking for now exactly? Are you planning to switch to different countries?

00:29:49 - 00:30:22

Stefan Meichsner: To the latter part of the question changing to different countries? No, we are currently very focused on Central America and the Caribbean, but we will definitely shift our focus for now more to Central America. We believe the strongest markets, at the moment, and the most attractive projects are in Guatemala, they are in El Salvador, and in Panama. We've had experiences in Colombia that lead us to believe that the market for now is, for several reasons, not as attractive as it was two or three years ago. Especially debt financing is currently not available for projects.

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