Financials Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd

Equities

9009

JP3278600006

Passenger Transportation, Ground & Sea

Market Closed - Japan Exchange Other stock markets 07:00:00 27/06/2024 BST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
5,186 ^JPY	-0.75%		+0.41%	-22.18%

06-20	Japan's Nikkei falls as heavyweight stocks track European stocks	RE
06-13	Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. agreed to acquire remaining 43.54% stake in Kanto Railway Co., Ltd.	CI

Valuation

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	680,464	527,228	610,092	575,544	682,493	842,934	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	973,482	794,057	908,545	889,678	1,007,702	1,322,657	1,149,657	1,147,706
P/E ratio	17.6 x	17.5 x	-20.2 x	-130 x	25.2 x	11.7 x	17.3 x	16.2 x
Yield	0.42%	0.54%	0.47%	0.5%	0.49%	0.63%	0.68%	0.7%
Capitalization / Revenue	2.6 x	1.92 x	2.94 x	2.69 x	2.7 x	3.51 x	2.7 x	2.67 x
EV / Revenue	3.72 x	2.89 x	4.37 x	4.15 x	3.99 x	4.46 x	3.69 x	3.64 x
EV / EBITDA	17 x	13.8 x	74.6 x	35.2 x	24.1 x	22.6 x	17.6 x	17 x
EV / FCF	-65 x	233 x	-32.2 x	-180 x	56.8 x	41.5 x	-37.2 x	65.1 x
FCF Yield	-1.54%	0.43%	-3.1%	-0.55%	1.76%	2.41%	-2.69%	1.54%
Price to Book	1.75 x	1.28 x	1.61 x	1.56 x	1.73 x	2.22 x	1.67 x	1.54 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	169,270	168,983	168,534	168,534	167,483	162,540	-	-
Reference price ²	4,020	3,120	3,620	3,415	4,075	5,225	5,225	5,225
Announcement Date	26/04/19	30/04/20	30/04/21	28/04/22	28/04/23	26/04/24	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	261,553	274,796	207,761	214,157	252,338	296,509	311,824	315,265
EBITDA ¹	57,211	57,405	12,184	25,282	41,844	58,593	65,240	67,503
EBIT ¹	31,608	28,320	-18,056	-5,201	10,228	25,241	31,539	32,560
Operating Margin	12.08%	10.31%	-8.69%	-2.43%	4.05%	8.51%	10.11%	10.33%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	50,563	40,958	-32,335	-2,890	32,858	121,940	61,500	65,167
Net income ¹	38,642	30,110	-30,289	-4,438	26,929	87,657	49,075	52,397
Net margin	14.77%	10.96%	-14.58%	-2.07%	10.67%	29.56%	15.74%	16.62%
EPS ²	228.3	178.1	-179.6	-26.33	161.7	524.6	302.0	322.4
Free Cash Flow ¹	-14,988	3,411	-28,205	-4,933	17,733	31,908	-30,900	17,624
FCF margin	-5.73%	1.24%	-13.58%	-2.3%	7.03%	10.76%	-9.91%	5.59%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	-	5.94%	-	-	42.38%	54.46%	-	26.11%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	-	11.33%	-	-	65.85%	36.4%	-	33.64%
Dividend per Share ²	17.00	17.00	17.00	17.00	20.00	39.00	35.50	36.75
Announcement Date	26/04/19	30/04/20	30/04/21	28/04/22	28/04/23	26/04/24	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: March	2020 S1	2020 S2	2021 S1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4
Net sales ¹	138,007	136,789	99,501	52,238	104,156	56,134	53,867	59,756	59,275	119,031	66,687	66,620	72,466	75,483	147,949	74,665	73,895
EBITDA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	19,117	9,203	-12,015	-2,283	-3,727	1,535	-3,009	3,203	1,198	4,401	4,079	1,748	7,653	7,597	15,250	8,617	1,374
Operating Margin	13.85%	6.73%	-12.08%	-4.37%	-3.58%	2.73%	-5.59%	5.36%	2.02%	3.7%	6.12%	2.62%	10.56%	10.06%	10.31%	11.54%	1.86%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	28,228	-	-20,384	-4,302	-6,821	4,763	-	5,962	-	18,194	9,891	-	13,646	13,225	26,871	18,472	-
Net income	21,176	-	-18,278	-4,345	-7,786	3,348	-	4,382	11,215	15,597	7,420	3,912	10,622	10,470	21,092	14,897	-
Net margin	15.34%	-	-18.37%	-8.32%	-7.48%	5.96%	-	7.33%	18.92%	13.1%	11.13%	5.87%	14.66%	13.87%	14.26%	19.95%	-
EPS	125.1	-	-108.4	-25.78	-46.20	19.87	-	26.35	-	94.13	44.33	23.26	63.43	62.51	125.9	88.95	-
Dividend per Share	8.500	-	8.500	-	8.500	-	-	-	-	8.500	-	-	-	-	13.00	-	-
Announcement Date	31/10/19	30/04/20	30/10/20	29/10/21	29/10/21	31/01/22	28/04/22	29/07/22	31/10/22	31/10/22	31/01/23	28/04/23	31/07/23	31/10/23	31/10/23	31/01/24	26/04/24

¹JPY in Million

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	293,018	266,829	298,453	314,134	325,209	282,235	306,723	304,773
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	5.122 x	4.648 x	24.5 x	12.43 x	7.772 x	4.817 x	4.701 x	4.515 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	-14,988	3,411	-28,205	-4,933	17,733	31,908	-30,900	17,624
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	10.4%	7.5%	-7.7%	-1.2%	7%	20.7%	10.2%	9.96%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	6.16%	4.74%	-3.56%	-0.35%	2.87%	5.08%	5.2%	5.35%
Assets ¹	627,686	634,884	850,528	1,252,434	938,711	1,724,371	943,755	979,391
Book Value Per Share ²	2,301	2,436	2,247	2,194	2,358	2,779	3,127	3,389
Cash Flow per Share ²	380.0	350.0	55.10	155.0	352.0	724.0	508.0	553.0
Capex ¹	60,839	47,303	37,487	39,933	38,254	61,484	115,000	60,000
Capex / Sales	23.26%	17.21%	18.04%	18.65%	15.16%	20.74%	36.88%	19.03%
Announcement Date	26/04/19	30/04/20	30/04/21	28/04/22	28/04/23	26/04/24	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

C-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

UNDERPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

5,225 JPY

Average target price

5,638 JPY

Spread / Average Target

+7.89%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Passenger Transportation, Ground & Sea

	1st Jan change	Capi.
KEISEI ELECTRIC RAILWAY CO., LTD	-22.18%	5.29B
CENTRAL JAPAN RAILWAY COMPANY	-4.30%	21.03B
INDIAN RAILWAY CATERING & TOURISM CORPORATION LIMITED	+11.69%	9.48B
WEST JAPAN RAILWAY COMPANY	+0.99%	8.87B
HANKYU HANSHIN HOLDINGS, INC.	-5.57%	6.3B
SEIBU HOLDINGS INC.	+13.29%	4.16B
KINTETSU GROUP HOLDINGS CO.,LTD.	-21.71%	4.1B
ODAKYU ELECTRIC RAILWAY CO., LTD.	-28.01%	3.51B
TOBU RAILWAY CO., LTD.	-28.60%	3.48B
KEIO CORPORATION	-16.38%	2.8B

Other Passenger Transportation, Ground & Sea