KAUFMAN & BROAD SA 2024
1st Half-year results and outlook
2024, July 12th
SOLID DEVELOPMENT MOMENTUM IN THE MEDIUM TERM
- Land portfolio Logement (Number of lots)
34,864 | 34,694 | 33,003 | ||
End | End | End | End | End |
May | May | May | May | May |
2020 | 2021 * | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
> Flow time Logement (Month)
7.0
4.1
3.1
End | End | End | End | End |
May | May | May | May | May |
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
> Accommodation
(Number) (€ m value including tax)
3,635
872.0 | |
2,238 2,400 | 561.2 |
503.2 |
H1 | H1 | H1 | H1 | H1 | H1 | H1 | H1 | H1 | H1 |
2020 | 2021 | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 | 2020 | 2021 | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 |
- Backlog Global
(€ m, HT)
3,789 | ||||||||
1,325 | 2,814 | |||||||
2,673 | Comm. | |||||||
-665 | 583 | Property. | ||||||
And | ||||||||
2,464 | 2,149 | others | ||||||
2,090 | ||||||||
Housing | ||||||||
End | End | End | End | End | |
May | May | May | May | May | |
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
Presentation of results for the first 1half of 2024 | |||||
2 |
The housing market
CONTRACTION BETWEEN HIGHER RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY PRICES AND HIGHER INTEREST RATES (DATA ON 26 COUNTRIES)
- Residential property prices vs. long term interest rates
Long term
interest rate
*
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2024
- Source: OECD, Euro zone
- * Source: Absolute Strategy Research, 26 countries, base 100 in 2006,
Drawn from The Economist of June 2024 under the title The Indestructible Asset "
Price
index * *
-
175
-
150
-
125
100
-75
Presentation of results for the first 1half of 2024 | 4 |
- RESIDENTIAL HOUSING MARKET: A KEY NEED *
- The almost 4 point increase in interest rates since 2021 should have led to a decline in nominal prices of 30 to 50%
- On the contrary, they limited their decline before resuming their progression
- Several reasons for this:
- Protective reference for long term fixed rates for loans
- Ability of households to make switches in the repayment of borrowings against other current expenditure, or even their savings
- Extension of the term of the loans (France: 248 months in May 2024 vs. 224 months in July 2020)
- General increases in wages and savings income combined with low unemployment
- Source: the Economist ,16 June 2024, " Why house prices are surging once again '
Presentation of results for the first 1half of 2024 | 5 |
REASONABLE RATES THAT ARE NOT A BRAKE ON HOME OWNERSHIP
Housing mortgage rates (rn%) - All markets
Number of bank loans granted (Crédit Logement)
Base 100 in 2020, year on year levels
%
5
125
4
3.92%
3
2
Number of loans
-
150
-
125
3.73%
100
1
50.4
-75
Q1 | Q3 | Q3 | Q3 | May | 50 | ||
2012 | 2015 | 2018 | 2021 | 2024 | |||
Source: Observatoire Crédit Logement/CSA | * | ||||||
Presentation of results for the first 1half of 2024 | |||||||
6 |
CHANGES IN CONSTRUCTION AUTHORISATIONS AND RESERVATIONS LOGEMENTS
Source: Sdes, Sit @ del2, In raw data - excluding pure individual data (Dido) 2024 | ||
(*): 12 months at end May 24 | Presentation of results for the first 1half of 2024 | 7 |
DEMAND FOR NEW HOUSING DRIVEN BY THE INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF SINGLE PERSON HOUSEHOLDS BY 2030 AND 2050
▪ Breakdown of households by size | |||||||
In | (Metropolitan France) | ||||||
millions | |||||||
14. | |||||||
12. | |||||||
10 | |||||||
/8 | |||||||
6. | |||||||
4. | |||||||
2. | |||||||
1 person | 2 persons | 3 persons | 4 persons 5 persons | ||||
and + |
Source: INSEE, sdes
- Increase of 3.6 million households between 2020 and 2050, driven by the increase of single person households (+3.4 million), of which a majority over 60 (+2.2 million)
- More than half of this increase is attributable to changes in cohabitation patterns (separations, staying at home after the spouse's death, etc.) as a result of the cohabitation of persons under 60 (+1.6 million) and 60 (+0.4 million).
- The increase and ageing of the population explains an increase of 1.7 million for 60 year olds and over.
Presentation of results for the first 1half of 2024 | 8 |
THE PARALLEL DROP IN PRICES AND TRANSACTIONS IN THE OLD ONE INCREASES PRESSURE ON NEW HOMES
- Older house prices
(quarterly% change, Q/Q-1, SA)
Source: Noters - Insee, index of existing house prices
- Number of existing house transactions (thousands of housing units cumulated over one year)
Source: IGEDD, based on DGFiP and Notarial Bases
Presentation of results for the first 1half of 2024 | 9 |
Housing Activity
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Kaufman et Broad SA published this content on 12 July 2024 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 12 July 2024 05:56:03 UTC.
