Duna House : estimation of the monthly residential property transaction and mortgage loan volumes

Residential property transaction volume estimate and mortgage forecast for

December 2021

Duna House presents its monthly Transaction Number Estimate (DH-TE) and Mortgage Forecast below, showing that in December 2021 11,422 property transactions were concluded and residential mortgage contracts worth HUF 110 billion were signed in the whole of Hungary.

According to Duna House estimates 11,422 residential property transactions were concluded in December, almost 4% more than in November. This figure is a sign of an increase of 10.3% and 12.8% in market activity compared to December 2020 and 2019, respectively. With this end-of year result the Hungarian residential property market volume reached and even exceeded the 150,000 transaction boundary: Duna House estimates that a total of 150,974 sales transactions were concluded in 2021, translating to a 15% increase y/y compared to 2020.

That said, the mortgage market showed signs of cooling in December, judged by the figures published by Duna House Finances. The HUF 110 billion turnover estimated by the mortgage agency was 1.5 times higher than it had been a year before and was approximately the same as in November. Based on the factual figures of the National Bank of Hungary and on the estimates published by Duna House for the last two months of the year a combined mortgage transaction volume of HUF 1300 billion was concluded in 2021 in Hungary, 40% more than in 2020.

Budapest, 3 January 2022.

Background info

The table below shows monthly transaction volume estimates of Duna House.

	January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December
2018	10,918	12,869	13,426	13,180	13,967	13,098	14,246	13,869	12,787	12,689	12,033	9,721
2019	10,741	13,532	14,373	14,166	13,512	11,069	12,764	11,945	13,364	13,182	10,945	10,127
2020	9917	13,117	11,100	5971	8400	11,186	13,125	11,923	12,708	12,200	11,369	10,354
2021	11,185	14,569	15,630	13,511	14,198	13,615	11,185	11,304	11,807	11,526	11,022	11,422

Methodology behind DH-TE: Regardless of the time of year, the most important indicator of the real estate market is the annual number of sale transactions. The DH-TE figure is an estimate published by Duna House and it reflects interim approximate data. The estimate is based on the number of monthly property transactions brokered by Duna House and the

estimated market share of Duna House. The estimate of the current monthly market share of Duna House is based on the following indicators: 1. Data published by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office on transactions among private individuals. Since the Statistical Office publishes data with several months' delay, market share can be adjusted retroactively which also results in a more accurate estimate as well. Please note: After 2016 and as a consequence of the boom in newly-built apartments, pre-contracted purchase transactions appear in the statistics of the Statistical Office with a delay of several months or even one or two years, after the capital transfer tax has been levied, which results in anomalies in the statistics. 2. The number of Energy Certificates issued; 3. Subjective assessment based on other management information from Duna House Holding.

Please also note that DH-TE data cannot be used for defining the volume of transactions brokered by Duna House, or for estimating the business profit of Duna House Holding or for the drawing of any related conclusions.

Mortgage forecast: Figures published by Duna House Loan Center can primarily be used for quick trend forecasts; the National Bank of Hungary publishes the actual figures for the second last month at the beginning of each month.