Zurich, January 24, 2012Credit Suisse today published its Sector Handbook 2012. As well as assessing the current state of the Swiss economy, the study examines the medium-term potential of the key branches of the economy using Credit Suisse's revised opportunity-risk evaluation profile. Healthcare-related sectors are benefiting considerably from demographic change, and the economists at Credit Suisse therefore believe that these sectors show great promise for the future. Both the pharmaceutical industry and the healthcare system but also the medical technology and social services industries are profiting by this trend. The future will be most challenging for structurally weak sectors such as printing and publishing, metalworking, and textiles and clothing. Due to the challenging business climate, structural strengths and weaknesses will gain in significance in 2012. The Credit Suisse economists are anticipating a considerable slowdown in the economy this year, although it should be possible to prevent a global recession. This trend will affect the individual sectors in different ways.
2011 was a turbulent year for the Swiss economy. The high level of dynamism at the start of last year and the optimism this created were soon replaced by an increasing amount of uncertainty. The continuing debt problems of numerous western countries in particular made the headlines in the second half of the year.
Mixed Expectations for 2012
The strong Swiss franc was one of the dominant issues of
the past year. However, not all sectors have been
affected to the same extent by the strong franc. The
greatest effects were apparent in the hotel and catering
sector and in retailing. In industry, the (albeit
flagging) economic dynamism mostly outweighed the effects
of the strong franc in 2011, although companies with a
high level of exports in particular saw their margins
shrink. The various sectors have differing expectations
for 2012. Whereas the mechanical and electrical
engineering (MEM) industries will be hit by the slowdown
in Europe and the pharmaceutical sector is still facing
the expiry of patent protection on high-selling
medicines, the healthcare and social services sectors and
the watchmaking industry will again hardly notice any
crisis in 2012. The watchmaking industry in particular is
also expected to grow considerably this year, although it
is unlikely to match last year's growth rates. As
interest rates are set to remain low, the construction
sector can look forward to another good year in terms of
volume, which should have a positive effect on the order
situation for engineers' offices.
Structural Factors Gaining in Significance in the Medium
Term
While the economic climate will play a key role in the
various sectors in the short term, structural influences
will be decisive for a sector's development in the
medium term. Demographic change, technological advances
and the intensifying shortage of resources are important
factors affecting the prosperity of an economic sector.
While these and other trends are generating strong growth
in certain sectors, they may increasingly cause problems
for companies in other branches of the economy. Against
this backdrop, each year Credit Suisse Economic Research
models the medium-term opportunities and risks facing the
various sectors in Switzerland.
Healthcare Sectors Have the Most Positive Outlook
Demographic change presents great opportunities for the
Swiss economy. Population growth, progressive aging and
an increase in chronic illnesses are contributing to the
continual rise in demand for medicines, medical
treatments and care services in Switzerland. Population
growth and rising prosperity in the emerging nations are
adding a great deal of momentum. Despite certain risk
factors, the Credit Suisse economists therefore consider
the pharmaceutical industry and the healthcare sector to
have the best perspectives in the medium term (ranked 1
and 2). The social services (position 4) and medical
technology (position 8) sectors are also expected to gain
as a result of this trend, with the former also
benefiting from increased outsourcing of care services.
Good Perspectives for Many Services Industries
The IT sector and the corporate services field also have
a very good opportunity-risk ratio. They are benefiting
from the increasing complexity and networking of business
and society, as well as from the growing pressure to
standardize and optimize processes. When looking for ways
to optimize costs, more and more companies are choosing
to outsource services with potential for standardization
to specialist external IT providers. The increasing
division of labor and the rise in professionalization
have proved advantageous for the real estate sector.
Construction Industry Struggling with Structural
Problems
Despite the high demand fueled by the ongoing property
boom, the construction sector only achieved an average
opportunity-risk rating. Fierce competition is driving
down construction prices. In many areas of both the main
and ancillary construction trades, productivity is
suffering from the trend towards volume business with
comparatively low margins. The opportunities will
therefore not be able to offset the risks.
Two-Speed Industry
From the range of industries, the Credit Suisse
economists consider that the sectors with an
above-average opportunity-risk ratio - in addition to the
aforementioned top-ranking pharmaceutical and medical
technology sectors and the outstandingly positioned
watchmaking industry - will be those with the potential
to benefit from the worsening shortage of resources, the
associated trend toward energy efficiency, and the
increased awareness of sustainability issues. These
include the electrical engineering, measuring and control
instruments and wood industries. There is also a whole
host of industry sectors in which the risks clearly
outweigh the opportunities - including the printing and
publishing sector, the metal industries, and the textiles
and clothing industry. They are primarily suffering from
strong foreign competition and the resulting pressure on
prices.
The New Opportunity-Risk Profile - Further Optimization
of a Proven Concept
The Credit Suisse economists have used the changeover of
numerous official economic statistics to the new system
of economic sectors (NOGA 2008) as an opportunity to
further optimize the existing opportunity-risk profile
created in 2006. The number of basic indicators has now
been reduced from 19 to 14, which means that only
statistics that are available for practically all
industries are used. The new profile also attributes
significantly more importance to the future by giving a
greater weighting to forecasts and expert assessments.
This procedure ensures that trends influencing demand in
the medium to long term receive more attention, and that
structural influences are now included more
systematically in the final result.
- Media Relations Credit Suisse AG, Tel. +41 844 33 88 44, media.relations@credit-suisse.com
Disclaimer
This document was produced by and the opinions expressed are those of Credit Suisse as of the date of writing and are subject to change. It has been prepared solely for information purposes and for the use of the recipient. It does not constitute an offer or an invitation by or on behalf of Credit Suisse to any person to buy or sell any security. Any reference to past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The information and analysis contained in this publication have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but Credit Suisse does not make any representation as to their accuracy or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof.
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