Banque Nationale Belgique : Press release - Business confidence indicator (2017-01) PDF

2017-01-25

Links: NBB.Stat General information

Monthly business survey - January 2017

Business confidence continues to pick up strength in January

The National Bank of Belgium's business barometer has risen again slightly in January.

The economic climate has firmed up in business-related services, for the fourth consecutive month. Although to a lesser extent, the economic situation has also firmed up again in the manufacturing industry and in the building industry, albeit more moderately than last month. By contrast, confidence among company managers has weakened in the trade sector for the second time in a row.

Entrepreneurs in the business-related services sector continue to view their current level of activity more positively and have also revised their forecasts upwards in this area.

The improvement seen in the manufacturing industry has been buoyed up by more optimistic forecasts, whether in terms of demand or employment, and by a more favourable assessment of stock levels.

Company managers in the building industry, for their part, have mainly reported an expansion of their order books.

In the trade sector, the renewed loss of confidence has affected all the components of the indicator, and especially the employment outlook.

The overall smoothed synthetic curve, which gives an indication of the underlying cyclical trend, is still pointing upwards.

Lastly, the results of the quarterly survey on production capacities in the manufacturing industry show a marginal rise in the utilisation rate, in line with the cyclical upturn observed in this branch of activity. So, the seasonally adjusted production capacity utilisation rate came to 80.7 % in January 2017, compared with 80.4 % in October 2016.

Business survey indicators
Smoothed
Gross synthetic curve	synthetic curve1
December	January	variation in	variation in
2016	2017	points	points
Manufacturing industry	-2.3	-1.4	0.9	0.1
Business-related services	12.5	14.0	1.5	-0.3
Building industry	-2.6	-2.2	0.4	-0.4
Trade	-3.4	-7.1	-3.7	0.7
Overall synthetic curve	-0.2	0.5	0.7	0.5

1

The smoothed curve has a two-month delay for the overall synthetic curve and a four-month delay for the branches of activity.

Source: NBB.

2

JANUARY 2017

OVERALL SYNTHETIC CURVE

20

NCS

10

0

-10

-20

-30

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY BUSINESS-RELATED SERVICES

20

NS975

10

0

-10

-20

-30

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

30

NS296

20

10

0

-10

-20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

BUILDING INDUSTRY TRADE

20

NS707

10

0

-10

-20

-30

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

20

NS914

10

0

-10

-20

-30

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Seasonally adjusted and smoothed series Seasonally adjusted series Source: NBB

3

SYNTHETIC CURVES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

TABLE 1

Seasonally adjusted balances of ''positive'' answers or ''higher than normal''(+) and ''negative'' answers or ''lower than normal''(-).	1980-2017 1			Adjusted series				Smoothed series
				2016	2017	2016
	Min.	Max.	Avg.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Jan.	Aug.	Sept.	Oct.	Nov.
Overall synthetic curve	- 31.8	+ 9.2	- 7.5	- 1.8	- 1.8	- 0.2	+ 0.5	- 1.5	- 2.1	- 1.9	- 1.4
Manufacturing industry curve	- 34.3	+ 6.0	- 10.5	- 3.7	- 4.2	- 2.3	- 1.4	- 3.5	- 3.4	.	.
Assessment of total order books	- 56.0	+ 10.0	- 21.8	- 13.4	- 14.6	- 2.3	- 10.0	- 12.0	- 11.7	.	.
Assessment of level of stocks ²	- 12.9	+ 25.0	+ 6.2	+ 4.6	+ 3.0	+ 3.1	+ 0.2	+ 2.7	+ 2.9	.	.
Employment expectations	- 36.0	+ 8.0	- 8.8	+ 2.0	+ 0.0	- 2.7	+ 1.2	- 1.4	- 0.4	.	.
Demand expectations	- 37.0	+ 15.0	- 5.2	+ 1.1	+ 0.9	- 1.4	+ 3.4	+ 1.3	+ 1.1	.	.
Business-related services curve	- 41.7	+ 34.0	+ 10.6	+ 8.6	+ 11.2	+ 12.5	+ 14.0	+ 11.8	+ 11.5	.	.
Assessment of activity	- 54.4	+ 20.0	- 5.0	- 5.7	- 6.7	- 1.6	+ 1.1	- 1.1	- 2.5	.	.
Activity expectations	- 32.0	+ 51.7	+ 23.4	+ 22.1	+ 27.7	+ 24.1	+ 28.2	+ 27.5	+ 26.4	.	.
Market demand expectations	- 43.0	+ 45.0	+ 14.5	+ 9.6	+ 12.7	+ 15.0	+ 12.8	+ 8.9	+ 9.7	.	.
Building industry curve	- 39.0	+ 24.3	- 7.6	- 4.2	- 4.8	- 2.6	- 2.2	- 3.3	- 3.7	.	.
Trend in orders	- 52.0	+ 40.0	- 4.9	- 3.6	- 2.9	+ 4.6	+ 8.8	+ 1.2	+ 0.2	.	.
Trend in equipment	- 19.4	+ 24.0	+ 1.8	+ 0.1	- 1.1	- 2.6	- 5.1	- 1.2	- 1.0	.	.
Assessment of order books	- 74.0	+ 30.0	- 24.1	- 14.3	- 14.1	- 10.0	- 10.6	- 12.7	- 13.6	.	.
Demand expectations	- 39.0	+ 21.0	- 3.4	+ 1.1	- 1.0	- 2.3	- 1.9	+ 1.3	+ 0.5	.	.
Trade curve	- 28.6	+ 16.0	- 2.0	- 2.2	- 0.3	- 3.4	- 7.1	- 6.0	- 5.3	.	.
Employment expectations	- 18.4	+ 18.0	+ 2.0	- 0.4	+ 0.2	+ 2.0	- 7.1	- 0.8	- 0.3	.	.
Demand expectations	- 40.0	+ 29.0	+ 0.3	+ 3.5	+ 0.7	- 4.4	- 4.8	- 7.9	- 7.2	.	.
Intentions of placing orders	- 39.0	+ 15.0	- 7.1	- 9.6	- 1.7	- 7.9	- 9.5	- 10.4	- 10.0	.	.

1 Minimum, maximum and average values of each indicator (adjusted series) since January 1980.

2 A positive, respectively negative balance, means that stocks, according to the assessment of entrepreneurs, are higher, respectively lower than normal for the season. When synthetic curves are calculated, the sign of this indicator is therefore reversed.

4

OTHER BUSINESS SURVEY INDICATORS

TABLE 2

Seasonally adjusted balances of ''positive'' answers or ''higher than normal''(+) and ''negative'' answers or ''lower than normal''(-).	1980-2017 1			Adjusted series				Smoothed series
				2016	2017	2016
	Min.	Max.	Avg.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Jan.	Aug.	Sept.	Oct.	Nov.
Manufacturing industry
Trend in production rate	- 33.0	+ 20.0	- 0.9	+ 0.5	- 2.7	+ 6.9	+ 4.0	- 0.9	- 0.2	.	.
Trend in domestic orders	- 35.0	+ 16.0	- 7.8	- 11.7	- 10.3	+ 4.9	- 8.9	- 11.6	- 11.0	.	.
Trend in export orders	- 44.0	+ 30.0	- 2.8	+ 3.8	- 2.8	+ 14.6	+ 3.9	- 0.9	+ 0.0	.	.
Assessment of export order books	- 61.0	+ 10.0	- 23.3	- 11.8	- 14.6	- 0.2	- 9.3	- 10.3	- 10.5	.	.
Trend in prices	- 21.0	+ 24.0	+ 0.9	+ 4.1	+ 7.2	+ 8.1	+ 6.8	+ 2.2	+ 3.5	.	.
Price expectations	- 24.0	+ 43.0	+ 6.7	+ 7.6	+ 10.3	+ 9.0	+ 9.7	+ 4.5	+ 5.6	.	.
Production capacity
(in percentage of the total production capacity)	70.1	84.6	78.9	80.4	-	-	80.7
Source: quarterly production capacity survey
Business-related services
Trend in activity	- 38.0	+ 37.0	+ 10.1	+ 5.3	+ 1.8	+ 18.0	+ 9.7	+ 8.5	+ 6.3	.	.
Trend in employment	- 49.4	+ 34.0	+ 6.8	+ 6.6	+ 17.4	+ 12.8	+ 9.3	+ 10.8	+ 10.1	.	.
Employment expectations	- 35.0	+ 48.0	+ 17.6	+ 28.3	+ 30.2	+ 28.7	+ 31.3	+ 24.7	+ 26.0	.	.
Trend in prices	- 15.8	+ 12.0	+ 1.6	- 0.3	+ 2.3	+ 3.7	+ 3.7	+ 1.5	+ 1.2	.	.
Price expectations	- 13.0	+ 30.0	+ 6.1	+ 4.0	+ 8.2	+ 8.1	+ 5.0	+ 4.6	+ 4.7	.	.
Building industry
Trend in activity	- 44.0	+ 34.7	- 4.8	+ 0.0	+ 0.5	+ 3.4	+ 4.6	+ 2.2	+ 1.6	.	.
Trend in employment	- 38.0	+ 22.0	- 5.5	+ 0.3	- 11.2	- 5.3	+ 3.3	- 3.6	- 3.0	.	.
Employment expectations	- 50.0	+ 30.0	- 5.6	+ 3.9	- 0.5	- 2.4	+ 2.6	+ 2.3	+ 2.3	.	.
Trend in prices	- 27.1	+ 32.0	- 2.3	- 1.7	- 2.1	- 4.6	- 2.9	- 3.6	- 3.5	.	.
Price expectations	- 20.6	+ 46.0	+ 5.1	- 6.0	- 3.5	- 2.1	- 0.5	- 4.1	- 4.1	.	.
Trade
Trend in sales	- 46.0	+ 43.0	+ 0.4	- 4.0	- 10.0	+ 9.4	- 9.6	- 10.8	- 8.7	.	.
Assessment of sales	- 41.0	+ 28.0	- 8.6	- 16.8	- 16.4	- 1.0	- 16.2	- 18.7	- 17.8	.	.
Assessment of level of stocks ²	- 12.9	+ 32.0	+ 12.1	+ 7.8	+ 6.6	+ 10.5	+ 10.5	+ 8.4	+ 8.9	.	.
Trend in prices	- 20.0	+ 50.0	+ 1.9	- 0.1	+ 1.3	+ 4.1	+ 6.3	+ 0.7	+ 0.9	.	.
Price expectations	- 11.0	+ 66.2	+ 11.5	+ 9.2	+ 15.3	+ 10.0	+ 4.0	+ 8.7	+ 9.5	.	.

1 Minimum, maximum and average values of each indicator (adjusted series) since January 1980.

2 A positive, respectively negative balance, means that stocks, according to the assessment of entrepreneurs, are higher, respectively lower than normal for the season.