BANQUE NAT BELGIQUE : Pressemitteilung - Konjunkturbarometer (2016-01) PDF

b1961911-fa56-4195-bbb2-32a91f4f143b.pdf

2016-01-25

Links: NBB.Stat General information

Monthly business survey - January 2016

Business confidence deteriorates in January

The National Bank of Belgium's business barometer fell back in January.

The business climate deteriorated in the manufacturing industry, in business-related services and in the trade sector as well. By contrast, the economic situation picked up further in the building industry, at a more sustained pace than in the last few months.

Company managers in the manufacturing industry are still showing some hesitation, alternating between gains and losses of optimism. After last month's more positive take on each of the four questions on which the indicator is based, they revised their assessment downwards in January, mainly as regards estimations of the current situation.

In the business-related services sector, where the decline follows three consecutive increases, the assessment of firms' current activity took a turn for the worse, and, above all, general market demand forecasts tailed off considerably.

As for retailers, they are expecting a sharp drop in demand, together with a reduction in orders placed with suppliers.

Lastly, in the building industry, optimism among entrepreneurs affected all components of the indicator, and in particular the recent trend in order books.

Despite the hesitation observed in the manufacturing industry in recent months, the results of the quarterly production capacity survey point to a slight rise in the utilisation rate. The seasonally adjusted production capacity utilisation rate in the manufacturing industry thus came to 79.5 % in January, compared with 78.7 % in October 2015.

Reflecting the underlying economic trend, the overall smoothed synthetic curve continues on its upward path.

Business survey indicators
Smoothed
Gross synthetic curve	synthetic curve1
December	January	variation in	variation in
2015	2016	points	points
Manufacturing industry	-3.7	-6.3	-2.6	0.0
Business-related services	12.9	10.2	-2.7	0.3
Building industry	-4.7	0.5	5.2	0.8
Trade	-4.8	-8.6	-3.8	0.2
Overall synthetic curve	-1.4	-3.0	-1.6	0.6

1

The smoothed curve has a two-month delay for the overall synthetic curve and a four-month delay for the branches of activity.

Source: NBB.

2

JANUARY 2016

OVERALL SYNTHETIC CURVE

20

NCS

10

0

-10

-20

-30

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY BUSINESS-RELATED SERVICES

20

NS975

10

0

-10

-20

-30

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

30

NS296

20

10

0

-10

-20

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

BUILDING INDUSTRY TRADE

20

NS707

10

0

-10

-20

-30

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

20

NS914

10

0

-10

-20

-30

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Seasonally adjusted and smoothed series Seasonally adjusted series Source: NBB

3

SYNTHETIC CURVES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

TABLE 1

Seasonally adjusted balances of ''positive'' answers or ''higher than normal''(+) and ''negative'' answers or ''lower than normal''(-).	1980-2016 1			Adjusted series				Smoothed series
				2015	2016	2015
	Min.	Max.	Avg.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Jan.	Aug.	Sept.	Oct.	Nov.
Overall synthetic curve	- 31.8	+ 9.2	- 7.6	- 4.0	- 3.9	- 1.4	- 3.0	- 4.8	- 4.8	- 4.3	- 3.7
Manufacturing industry curve	- 34.3	+ 6.0	- 10.7	- 5.6	- 6.3	- 3.7	- 6.3	- 6.1	- 6.1	.	.
Assessment of total order books	- 56.0	+ 10.0	- 22.1	- 13.4	- 17.8	- 14.3	- 18.3	- 15.1	- 15.0	.	.
Assessment of level of stocks ²	- 12.9	+ 25.0	+ 6.3	+ 4.2	+ 3.3	+ 0.4	+ 3.7	+ 3.6	+ 4.1	.	.
Employment expectations	- 36.0	+ 8.0	- 9.0	- 3.8	- 3.3	- 2.6	- 3.7	- 6.7	- 5.9	.	.
Demand expectations	- 37.0	+ 15.0	- 5.3	- 1.0	- 0.8	+ 2.3	+ 0.3	+ 0.0	+ 0.2	.	.
Business-related services curve	- 41.7	+ 34.0	+ 10.5	+ 7.2	+ 11.0	+ 12.9	+ 10.2	+ 8.5	+ 8.8	.	.
Assessment of activity	- 54.4	+ 20.0	- 5.2	- 4.5	- 0.2	- 0.2	- 3.5	- 2.9	- 2.6	.	.
Activity expectations	- 32.0	+ 51.7	+ 23.3	+ 19.7	+ 20.5	+ 24.9	+ 25.0	+ 20.5	+ 20.5	.	.
Market demand expectations	- 43.0	+ 45.0	+ 14.7	+ 6.3	+ 12.9	+ 14.1	+ 9.0	+ 9.6	+ 9.1	.	.
Building industry curve	- 39.0	+ 24.3	- 7.8	- 8.5	- 7.3	- 4.7	+ 0.5	- 9.4	- 8.6	.	.
Trend in orders	- 52.0	+ 40.0	- 5.1	- 5.3	- 7.6	- 1.2	+ 10.0	- 7.6	- 5.9	.	.
Trend in equipment	- 19.4	+ 24.0	+ 1.9	- 5.8	- 7.7	- 3.3	- 0.1	- 6.5	- 5.6	.	.
Assessment of order books	- 74.0	+ 30.0	- 24.4	- 20.8	- 16.3	- 14.1	- 13.1	- 20.4	- 19.6	.	.
Demand expectations	- 39.0	+ 21.0	- 3.4	- 2.1	+ 2.3	- 0.2	+ 5.1	- 4.0	- 2.5	.	.
Trade curve	- 28.6	+ 16.0	- 1.9	- 4.3	- 8.0	- 4.8	- 8.6	- 6.8	- 6.6	.	.
Employment expectations	- 18.4	+ 18.0	+ 2.1	- 5.7	- 8.1	- 5.4	- 4.8	- 7.2	- 7.2	.	.
Demand expectations	- 40.0	+ 29.0	+ 0.4	+ 3.0	- 0.1	+ 0.6	- 8.1	+ 1.4	+ 1.7	.	.
Intentions of placing orders	- 39.0	+ 15.0	- 7.0	- 10.1	- 15.8	- 9.5	- 12.8	- 12.8	- 12.9	.	.

1 Minimum, maximum and average values of each indicator (adjusted series) since January 1980.

2 A positive, respectively negative balance, means that stocks, according to the assessment of entrepreneurs, are higher, respectively lower than normal for the season. When synthetic curves are calculated, the sign of this indicator is therefore reversed.

4

OTHER BUSINESS SURVEY INDICATORS

TABLE 2

Seasonally adjusted balances of ''positive'' answers or ''higher than normal''(+) and ''negative'' answers or ''lower than normal''(-).	1980-2016 1			Adjusted series				Smoothed series
				2015	2016	2015
	Min.	Max.	Avg.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Jan.	Aug.	Sept.	Oct.	Nov.
Manufacturing industry
Trend in production rate	- 33.0	+ 20.0	- 1.0	- 4.3	- 2.5	- 3.0	- 4.7	- 1.0	- 1.5	.	.
Trend in domestic orders	- 35.0	+ 16.0	- 7.9	- 4.9	- 16.3	- 4.6	- 8.7	- 6.0	- 5.6	.	.
Trend in export orders	- 44.0	+ 30.0	- 2.9	- 6.4	- 10.9	+ 5.5	- 0.6	- 6.1	- 8.3	.	.
Assessment of export order books	- 61.0	+ 10.0	- 23.6	- 13.7	- 16.7	- 17.6	- 19.8	- 14.5	- 15.1	.	.
Trend in prices	- 21.0	+ 24.0	+ 0.9	- 8.7	- 11.5	- 8.7	- 4.8	- 3.6	- 5.1	.	.
Price expectations	- 24.0	+ 43.0	+ 6.8	- 2.1	- 1.0	+ 0.0	- 2.4	+ 0.3	- 1.3	.	.
Production capacity
(in percentage of the total production capacity)	70.1	84.6	78.9	78.7	-	-	79.5
Source: quarterly production capacity survey
Business-related services
Trend in activity	- 38.0	+ 37.0	+ 10.0	- 5.0	- 2.0	+ 7.7	+ 17.0	- 0.1	+ 0.3	.	.
Trend in employment	- 49.4	+ 34.0	+ 6.5	- 1.4	- 1.1	+ 2.3	+ 8.8	+ 5.6	+ 4.4	.	.
Employment expectations	- 35.0	+ 48.0	+ 17.2	+ 23.3	+ 23.1	+ 23.8	+ 23.6	+ 23.3	+ 23.2	.	.
Trend in prices	- 15.8	+ 12.0	+ 1.6	+ 0.8	- 0.9	+ 0.3	+ 1.8	+ 0.9	+ 0.8	.	.
Price expectations	- 13.0	+ 30.0	+ 6.1	+ 7.1	+ 7.2	+ 1.7	- 3.3	+ 6.0	+ 6.2	.	.
Building industry
Trend in activity	- 44.0	+ 34.7	- 5.0	+ 0.3	- 0.1	- 1.4	+ 3.3	- 7.7	- 5.5	.	.
Trend in employment	- 38.0	+ 22.0	- 5.5	- 5.2	- 7.6	- 2.9	- 3.4	- 11.8	- 10.3	.	.
Employment expectations	- 50.0	+ 30.0	- 5.8	- 9.1	- 7.8	- 2.1	+ 1.5	- 10.8	- 9.3	.	.
Trend in prices	- 27.1	+ 32.0	- 2.2	- 12.7	- 9.3	- 7.8	- 8.0	- 17.3	- 14.6	.	.
Price expectations	- 20.6	+ 46.0	+ 5.3	- 5.6	- 4.6	- 3.2	- 0.6	- 9.9	- 7.7	.	.
Trade
Trend in sales	- 46.0	+ 43.0	+ 0.7	+ 11.5	+ 2.7	- 8.0	- 3.9	+ 7.4	+ 6.4	.	.
Assessment of sales	- 41.0	+ 28.0	- 8.4	- 5.9	- 15.9	- 21.6	- 13.7	- 7.9	- 8.7	.	.
Assessment of level of stocks ²	- 12.9	+ 32.0	+ 12.2	+ 9.9	+ 9.4	+ 10.2	+ 15.7	+ 9.5	+ 9.8	.	.
Trend in prices	- 20.0	+ 50.0	+ 1.9	+ 4.2	+ 3.0	+ 6.5	+ 7.2	+ 2.2	+ 3.3	.	.
Price expectations	- 11.0	+ 66.2	+ 11.7	+ 13.7	+ 7.2	+ 2.3	+ 2.7	+ 8.7	+ 8.3	.	.

1 Minimum, maximum and average values of each indicator (adjusted series) since January 1980.

2 A positive, respectively negative balance, means that stocks, according to the assessment of entrepreneurs, are higher, respectively lower than normal for the season.