Date: 16 January 2017
Brexit update: and trade can thrive under WTO rules
In this Perspective Ruth Lea, Economic Adviser to the Arbuthnot Banking Group, discusses the latest Brexit news:
- The Prime Minister will give a speech on Tuesday (17 January), providing further information on Brexit. It is all but certain the UK will leave both the Single Market and the EU's Customs Union.
- Options for the UK's relationship with the EU post-Brexit remain a live topic. Continuing with tariff free trade on goods and agreed 'regulatory equivalence' regimes for financial services have much to recommend them.
- If a special bespoke deal cannot be agreed then, as a default, the UK will trade with the EU27 under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.
- Trade can thrive under WTO rules. Indeed, UK exports to non-EU countries which do not have an EU trade deal grew faster over the decade 2005-2015 than UK exports to either the EU (especially) or the non-EU countries that did have trade deals with the EU.
- Mortgage approvals firmed a little in November, whilst unsecured consumer credit grew by a buoyant 10.8% (YOY).
- Labour productivity (output per hour) grew 0.4% (QOQ) in 2016Q3.
- Industrial production recovered in November, but construction output slipped a tad.
- The trade balance (goods and services) deteriorated in November, but monthly figures are erratic. Encouragingly, goods exports rose 4.6% in the three months to November (QOQ).
- The Markit/CIPS surveys for the three main sectors indicated a growth pick-up in December.
- NIESR estimated GDP grew 0.5% (QOQ) in 2016Q4 and 2.0% in 2016.
- The Bank appears to be raising its growth forecast for the February Inflation Report.
For full story: http://www.arbuthnotgroup.com/economic_perspectives_group.html
Press enquiries:
Arbuthnot Banking Group PLC:
Ruth Lea, Economic Adviser
07800 608 674, 020 8346 3482
ruthlea@arbuthnot.co.uk
Follow Ruth on Twitter @RuthLeaEcon
Bell Pottinger:
Dan de Belder
020 3772 2561
ddebelder@bellpottinger.com
Arbuthnot Banking Group plc published this content on 16 January 2017 and is solely responsible for the information contained herein.
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