Turkish conglomerate Sabanci Holding’s
Akbank’s FX loans growth for 2020 is seen by the lender as heading for the low single digits while its swap-adjusted net interest margin (NIM) is forecast at above 4%.
The private bank is also targeting a return on equity (ROE) in the mid-10%s for 2020 thanks to high single digit net fees and commissions growth.
“Akbank announced its 2020 budget with the full attendance of its upper management as always. In the 2020 budget, we see minor differences to our forecasts, which mainly derive from a stronger 4% GDP growth forecast [for
Akbank’s NPL ratio stood at 6% as of end-September. That was versus 2019 guidance for "lower than 6%", according to the lender’s latest financials for Q3 2019.
The lender’s lira loans grew by 3.9% year-to-date at end-September while the 9-month NIM was at 4% versus a 2019 guidance for "higher than 3.5%".
Net fees and commissions grew by 35% y/y versus 2019 guidance for "higher than 20%".
Garanti BBVA (GARAN), 49.85%-owned by
Another Garanti BBVA target is a return on average equity (ROAE) of 15-18% for 2020 on net fees and commissions growth in the high 10%s.
“Garanti Bank announced its 2020 budget with the attendance of its upper management as always. Contrary to previous years’ more conservative approach, Garanti laid out a slightly more constructive scenario compared to our estimates, especially driven by a more aggressive further rate cut assumption of 300bps, leading to stronger NIM expansion target,” BGC said in a note entitled “GARANTI 2020 BUDGET: Guiding more aggressively on NIM expansion leading to high-teens ROE, indicating upside risk to consensus”.
Garanti’s NPL ratio rose to 6.7% as of end-September from 5.2% at end-2018 while lira loans grew 2% y/y.
“Some optimism generated in
Turkish banking industry | |||||||||||
Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | |
Assets (TRY tn) | 3.86 | 3.94 | 4.14 | 4.29 | 4.27 | 4.23 | 4.17 | 4.27 | 4.27 | 4.32 | 4.36 |
Loans (TRY tn) | 2.38 | 2.42 | 2.52 | 2.56 | 2.55 | 2.54 | 2.49 | 2.54 | 2.53 | 2.56 | 2.60 |
Gross NPL(TRYbn) | 100 | 104 | 106 | 109 | 111 | 116 | 120 | 124 | 133 | 140 | 144 |
NPL Ratio (%) | 4.03 | 4.11 | 4.04 | 4.05 | 4.18 | 4.36 | 4.57 | 4.64 | 4.96 | 5.15 | 5.23 |
Deposits (TRY tn) | 2.05 | 2.10 | 2.21 | 2.27 | 2.27 | 2.27 | 2.26 | 2.35 | 2.36 | 2.42 | 2.45 |
Equity (TRY bn) | 426 | 433 | 433 | 440 | 439 | 449 | 455 | 456 | 466 | 472 | 482 |
Net profit (TRY bn) | 3.2 | 6.5 | 12.4 | 16.2 | 19.7 | 24.8 | 28.2 | 32.8 | 36.2 | 41.3 | 46.6 |
NII (TRY bn) | 10 | 21 | 35 | 48 | 61 | 73 | 86 | 100 | 114 | 130 | 145 |
ROA (%) | 0.08 | 0.17 | 0.31 | 0.40 | 0.48 | 0.60 | 0.68 | 0.79 | 0.87 | 0.99 | 1.11 |
ROE (%) | 0.77 | 1.53 | 2.92 | 3.82 | 4.67 | 5.86 | 6.67 | 7.76 | 8.52 | 9.72 | 10.95 |
Capital/Assets(%) | 11.0 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.6 | 10.9 | 10.7 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 11.1 |
CAR (core) (%) | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
source: bddk |
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