Financials AB Volvo OTC Markets

Equities

VLVLY

US9288541082

Heavy Machinery & Vehicles

Market Closed - OTC Markets Other stock markets 20:56:47 27/06/2024 BST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
25.12 ^USD	-0.87%		-1.41%	-3.18%

06-27	Volvo Group Names Radhika Nair as Head of People Culture for India, Effective July 1, 2024	CI
06-27	Zeekr's sales jump as Chinese dominate Russian EV market	RE

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	319,557	394,800	427,626	387,546	534,513	545,760	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	284,157	343,800	377,226	326,246	467,813	461,439	446,204	429,568
P/E ratio	8.89 x	20.4 x	13 x	11.7 x	10.7 x	11.2 x	10.5 x	9.89 x
Yield	-	3.1%	6.2%	7.43%	6.88%	6.68%	6.18%	6.69%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.74 x	1.17 x	1.15 x	0.82 x	0.97 x	1.06 x	1.01 x	0.96 x
EV / Revenue	0.66 x	1.02 x	1.01 x	0.69 x	0.85 x	0.9 x	0.83 x	0.75 x
EV / EBITDA	4.46 x	6.99 x	6.31 x	4.58 x	4.73 x	5.59 x	5.13 x	4.63 x
EV / FCF	14 x	21.1 x	24.3 x	25.5 x	42 x	11.5 x	10.7 x	9.8 x
FCF Yield	7.13%	4.74%	4.12%	3.92%	2.38%	8.71%	9.33%	10.2%
Price to Book	2.3 x	2.71 x	3.02 x	2.36 x	2.99 x	3.03 x	2.63 x	2.33 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	2,032,914	2,033,452	2,033,452	2,033,452	2,033,452	2,033,452	-	-
Reference price ²	156.9	193.8	209.6	188.5	261.7	267.1	267.1	267.1
Announcement Date	30/01/20	03/02/21	28/01/22	26/01/23	26/01/24	-	-	-

¹SEK in Million²SEK

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	431,980	338,446	372,216	473,479	552,764	514,876	540,788	571,414
EBITDA ¹	63,707	49,163	59,735	71,196	98,865	82,540	87,022	92,709
EBIT ¹	47,910	28,564	41,015	50,467	77,638	64,625	68,640	74,037
Operating Margin	11.09%	8.44%	11.02%	10.66%	14.05%	12.55%	12.69%	12.96%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	46,832	25,917	43,190	45,077	66,726	64,829	69,875	75,549
Net income ¹	34,598	19,318	32,787	32,722	49,825	48,609	51,703	55,254
Net margin	8.01%	5.71%	8.81%	6.91%	9.01%	9.44%	9.56%	9.67%
EPS ²	17.64	9.500	16.12	16.09	24.50	23.82	25.32	27.00
Free Cash Flow ¹	20,254	16,313	15,530	12,788	11,130	40,188	41,640	43,819
FCF margin	4.69%	4.82%	4.17%	2.7%	2.01%	7.81%	7.7%	7.67%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	31.79%	33.18%	26%	17.96%	11.26%	48.69%	47.85%	47.27%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	58.54%	84.44%	47.37%	39.08%	22.34%	82.68%	80.54%	79.3%
Dividend per Share ²	-	6.000	13.00	14.00	18.00	17.85	16.50	17.86
Announcement Date	30/01/20	03/02/21	28/01/22	26/01/23	26/01/24	-	-	-

¹SEK in Million²SEK

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 S1	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2
Net sales ¹	-	102,378	105,317	118,943	-	114,917	134,302	131,420	140,821	132,405	148,117	131,177	133,476	120,733	129,713	132,464	139,612
EBITDA ¹	-	14,879	17,566	18,723	-	16,910	17,996	23,517	27,022	24,448	23,879	23,325	23,264	19,209	18,535	22,300	22,646
EBIT ¹	21,551	10,060	12,681	13,745	26,426	11,869	12,171	18,409	21,732	19,114	18,384	18,159	18,257	14,976	14,441	17,859	17,859
Operating Margin	-	9.83%	12.04%	11.56%	-	10.33%	9.06%	14.01%	15.43%	14.44%	12.41%	13.84%	13.68%	12.4%	11.13%	13.48%	12.79%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-	10,202	9,027	13,873	-	11,758	10,420	16,797	14,409	18,636	16,884	18,442	18,357	14,967	13,728	18,007	18,154
Net income ¹	-	7,995	7,033	10,443	-	8,627	6,620	12,910	10,770	14,092	12,053	14,080	14,409	11,417	10,373	13,164	13,319
Net margin	-	7.81%	6.68%	8.78%	-	7.51%	4.93%	9.82%	7.65%	10.64%	8.14%	10.73%	10.79%	9.46%	8%	9.94%	9.54%
EPS ²	-	3.930	3.460	5.140	-	4.240	3.260	6.350	5.300	6.930	5.930	6.920	6.911	5.449	4.962	6.477	6.553
Dividend per Share ²	-	13.00	-	-	-	-	14.00	-	-	-	18.00	-	18.00	-	5.560	-	9.000
Announcement Date	20/07/21	28/01/22	22/04/22	19/07/22	19/07/22	20/10/22	26/01/23	20/04/23	19/07/23	18/10/23	26/01/24	17/04/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹SEK in Million²SEK

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net Cash position ¹	35,400	51,000	50,400	61,300	66,700	84,322	99,557	116,193
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Free Cash Flow ¹	20,254	16,313	15,530	12,788	11,130	40,188	41,640	43,819
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	27.3%	14.2%	21.8%	23.8%	34.3%	28.4%	28%	27.2%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	7.16%	3.89%	6.39%	5.72%	8.95%	7.56%	7.82%	7.79%
Assets ¹	483,196	496,317	513,339	572,463	556,567	642,611	661,376	709,677
Book Value Per Share ²	68.20	71.50	69.40	80.00	87.50	88.20	102.0	115.0
Cash Flow per Share ²	16.40	15.10	16.60	16.40	13.10	32.90	35.20	37.30
Capex ¹	18,055	14,297	18,117	20,456	23,387	20,626	22,471	24,360
Capex / Sales	4.18%	4.22%	4.87%	4.32%	4.23%	4.01%	4.16%	4.26%
Announcement Date	30/01/20	03/02/21	28/01/22	26/01/23	26/01/24	-	-	-

¹SEK in Million²SEK

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for AB Volvo

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

267.1 SEK

Average target price

313.5 SEK

Spread / Average Target

+17.38%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Heavy Trucks

	1st Jan change	Capi.
SINOTRUK (HONG KONG) LIMITED	+32.51%	6.89B
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ANHUI HELI CO.,LTD.	+15.38%	2.37B
SINOTRUK JINAN TRUCK CO.,LTD	+6.66%	2.29B
CIMC VEHICLES (GROUP) CO., LTD.	-7.25%	2.24B
MITSUBISHI LOGISNEXT CO., LTD.	+15.85%	1.03B
WABASH NATIONAL CORPORATION	-16.24%	966M
KAMAZ PUBLICLY TRADED COMPANY	-.--%	717M
KYOKUTO KAIHATSU KOGYO CO.,LTD.	+27.84%	599M

Heavy Trucks