Consensus is for imports to have fallen 2.7% on the year in June after the prior month's 2.0% drop, resulting in a $5.15 billion trade surplus.

Export growth momentum may weaken after peaking in the second quarter, but the trade balance is likely to remain in surplus until end-2024, Hana Securities economist Chun Kyu-yeon said.

Headline inflation is expected to have remained below 3% for a third straight month in June.

The benchmark consumer-price index is tipped to have risen 2.7% on the year, the same pace of growth as in May, according to the median forecast of 11 economists polled by the WSJ.

That would still overshoot the central bank's 2.0% annual target.

Tamer prices for agricultural products and energy likely kept goods inflation in check despite pressure from rising prices for stock products, Citigroup economist Jiuk Choi said. The Bank of Korea expects inflation to average 2.6% for 2024.


ASIAN INFLATION DATA


Inflation prints from Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Taiwan take the temperature of price pressures in the region that will help determine the direction for monetary policy in the quarter ahead.

On Monday, Barclays economists expect CPI inflation data from Indonesia to show a slowdown in June. Base effects in core CPI plus a further cooling of food prices likely pulled down the headline number, they said.

That would be welcome news for Indonesia's central bank, which opted to keep rates on hold at its June meeting in part to ensure that inflation remains under control.

Though inflation likely stayed low, ING economists note that the slump in the rupiah may yet pressure Bank Indonesia to respond with further supportive rate hikes. The BI surprised markets with a rate hike in April to bolster the weakening currency.

Philippine inflation data on Friday will be looked at for signs that price pressures are cooling after the central bank cut inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025 at its June rate meeting as it delivered a dovish hold.

Bets that policymakers are shaping up to start easing have firmed, though economists say the next batch of growth and CPI releases will be key to the timing of cuts. The Philippine central bank is likely also keeping an eye on the peso and the prospects for Federal Reserve cuts, which could pressure the currency.

Economists at both UOB and Barclays expect Philippine CPI growth to have moderated in June.

Taiwan also publishes inflation data Friday. ING economists are looking for a small uptick in June CPI.

Though there has been an abundance of caution about inflationary pressure after a rise in electricity and housing prices, ING thinks Taiwan's inflation will stay manageable, expecting it to pull back toward the 2% target by the fourth quarter.

Inflation in Thailand likely cooled in June from May's surprisingly high print, Barclays economists expect. That could shift views about the likelihood that the central bank will lower borrowing costs this year.

Some economists scrapped their calls for rate-cuts this year after the Thai central bank's last meeting, viewing tepid inflation and economic growth as not conducive to easing.

Bank of Thailand has said it expects headline inflation to gradually return to target by the fourth quarter. The consumer-price index rose 1.5% in May from a year earlier, compared with the central bank's inflation target range of 1.0%-3.0%.


PMI DATA IN ASIA


Monday will see a flood of PMI data, with June readings due for China, Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, India and South Korea.

Flash PMIs that have so far alluded to slowing developed economy growth momentum, and softening price pressures, economists at S&P Global Market Intelligence said.

Slower momentum in key trading partners could spell a slowdown for Asian manufacturing activity as well. May's PMI prints suggested that Asian manufacturers seem to be on firmer ground, with survey data signaling stronger output and orders, but also building cost pressures that could stoke concerns about inflation.

June's surveys will be watched for signs that the recovery is on track, or starting to get shaky again.

A private gauge of China services PMI is also due Wednesday, while two PMI readings for Singapore will be released--one on Tuesday and another on Wednesday.


(All references to days are in local times.)


--Additional reporting by Megumi Fujikawa, James Glynn, Kwanwoo Jun, Miriam Mukuru, Emese Bartha and Paul Vieira


Write to: Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Fabiana Negrin Ochoa at fabiana.negrinochoa@dowjones.com 


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06-30-24 2014ET