By Kirk Maltais


--Wheat for September delivery fell 3.6%, to $5.31 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Monday, with traders adding to short positions across the board as a Trump victory in November is viewed as more likely, in turn adding to fears of reduced U.S. export sales.

--Corn for December delivery fell 2.7%, to $4.03 1/4 a bushel.

--Soybeans for November delivery fell 2.5%, to $10.39 1/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Writing on the Wall: The political boost Trump's campaign is getting from his attempted assassination over the weekend has grain traders again rethinking any assumptions regarding the November presidential election. "In the grains, the fear is that Trump will place new tariffs on China which will deepen a trade war that started back in 2018," said AgResource in a note. Adding to these fears is China's slow buying of U.S. grain exports in recent months, the firm said.

Temp Relief: Temperatures are expected to cool down in southern crop-growing areas as the week progresses, turning below the 80-degree Fahrenheit mark in much of the Midwest from over 100 degrees in some areas, according to a USDA forecast. This is positive for farmers' fields, but not for CBOT grain futures, contributing to their steep decline Monday afternoon.


INSIGHT


Looking for New Lows: Following Friday's WASDE report from the USDA, grain traders appear to have determined their outlook for grains in the near-term. "Volume was heavy coming out of the weekend with direction pretty clear--the grains are seeking their lowest levels since various points in 2020," said Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note. Friday's report mostly confirmed abundant supplies of U.S. grains, with flooding and heat seen in some areas this year doing little to derail production.

Mixed Bag: Inspections of U.S. wheat exports surged for the week ended July 11, while soybeans fell off in a big way. In its latest weekly report Monday, the USDA said that wheat export inspections totaled 533,828 metric tons, well up from 343,359 tons reported for the previous week, as well as 273,443 tons reported at this time last year. Soybean inspections fell hard from the previous week, totaling 168,593 tons, down from 294,209 tons from the previous week but higher than the 160,844 tons at this time last year. Corn inspections exceeded the previous week, totaling 1.08 million tons.


AHEAD


--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

--The USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report at 3 p.m. ET Friday.

--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

07-15-24 1513ET