Passenger bookings point to a difficult start for 2021

IATA Economics' Chart of the Week

08 January 2021

Passenger bookings point to a difficult start for 2021

% year-on-year	YoY change in net passenger bookings, worldwide
0%			Xmas bookings
-20%		November 9	: first
		th
-40%		positive news about
	vaccines
-60%		Actual
-80%
		7-day moving average
-100%
Source: IATA Economics using DDS data	Purchase date

• This week we releasedAir Passenger Market Analysiswith November data, showing that the recovery in passenger demand stagnated, following the promising rebound during the northern summer period. Performance has weakened not only across international but also the domestic markets that have been the relatively bright spot previously. This week's chart takes a look at global passenger bookings that show how the willingness to travel evolved over the last month of the year.
• The data shows that there will most likely not be any significant improvement in passenger volumes in the near-term. Ticket purchases had been rising modestly towards the third week of December as people planned to visit friends and relatives over the holiday season. However, the rise in bookings was reversed following December 23rd.
• The resurgence of the virus in a number of key markets and the resulting travel restrictions caused the delayed recovery. Based on WHO data, about 4.1 million people tested COVID-19 positive in the last week of December - twice as many compared to the same week in September. The appearance of new, more aggressive mutations of the virus have further worsened the crisis, weighting on already weak passenger demand in many key markets including the UK.
• Developments in ticket bookings indicate that the start of 2021 will not be easy for airlines. The positive vaccine news has not changed travelers' intentions yet and vaccine rollout will take some time until it leads to improved passenger volumes. Until then, the only driver for some more significant air travel

recovery could be establishment of a reliable and efficient testing regime.

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