Bond markets are ending the week as they started it: on a heavier note (yields up +10 to +11pts)... but 'critical thresholds' (end-November 2023 lows) are preserved.
There were figures on the agenda this morning in Europe: production rebounded in France over one month in manufacturing (+0.9% after -1.5% in January) and in total industry (+0.2% after -0.9%), according to seasonally and working-day adjusted data from Insee.
Retail sales in Europe fell by -0.5% in February, according to Eurostat, and industrial orders fell in Germany due to poor sales of electric vehicles (-25% in 1 quarter).
In Italy, the public deficit has been reduced to 5.5%, in line with that of France.

Our OATs and Bunds rallied by +4.6 and +4.5pts to 2.9100% and 2.4020% respectively, while Italian BTPs posted +7pts to 3.78500%.

T-Bonds re-tested the crucial resistance of 4.400% before balancing out at 4.3800% (+7Pts)... but the scenario of a return to 4.500% is becoming increasingly plausible after the publication of the US 'NFP' at 2.30 pm.

The US economy created more jobs than expected in March, according to the monthly Labor Department report published on Friday.
Wall Street, which had expected a 0.2% rise, posted +0.3%, with scores for once very even, from the Dow Jones to the Nasdaq (identical scores the day after declines of between -1.3 and -1.5%, the biggest fall of the year).

The monthly 'NFP' report counted 303,000 non-farm jobs created last month in the USA, compared with 270.000 (revised from 275,000) in February, while the Reuters consensus forecast only 200,000.

The unemployment rate fell to 3.8% in March, from 3.9% the previous month (Reuters consensus unchanged at 3.9%).

The rise in average hourly earnings - a closely watched component - accelerated to +0.3% in March, after +0.2% in February (consensus +0.3%), but its growth slowed slightly to 4.1% from +4.3% (annualized) the previous month, coinciding with the consensus of 4.1%.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari warned that 'if inflation continues to follow a sequence of declines and occasional spikes, the question will arise as to whether we should not abandon any rate cuts this year'.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the drop in Russian refining capacity continue to keep pressure on oil: Brent crude (+0.2%) hovers around $91.3 a barrel, while WTI hovers around $86.8, i.e. in contact with the annual records tested the previous day.
The "geopolitical fact" continues to push gold up (+1%) above $2,320 (new high at $2,323, i.e. +4% weekly), while silver is marking time below $27 (-1% but +7.8% over the week).


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