A mixed day on the bond markets, with a slight decline in the US and a timid rise in Europe (after a clear easing at the start of the week this morning, to the lowest levels since mid-July.
The easing of the past 5 weeks has come to a halt on the US bond front: the ten-year recovered +7pts to 4.292%, but is still close to the lowest levels since the end of August.

Fed boss Jerome Powell said on Friday that it was "premature to talk about a rate cut" and assured us that a "rate hike remains on the table", but the markets seem to have decoded another message which said "we will cut rates sooner than expected" (the consensus is now for mid-March).

The highlight of the week will be the 'NFP' on Friday (employment figures), but this will be preceded on Tuesday by the ISM for services, then on Wednesday by the ADP survey of private-sector job creation, while awaiting the Michigan consumer confidence index on Friday.

Other indicators on the week's menu include services PMIs in Europe, 3rd-quarter retail sales and GDP in the eurozone, and final inflation figures in Germany.

As the growth figures are in stark contrast to the US (recession in Germany vs. +5.2% GDP in Q3 2023), our rates continue to ease in Europe, with the German Bund erasing another -1Pt to 2.3520%.
The OAT 2033 followed suit with -1Pts to 2.918%, while the Italian 10-year stabilized at 4.100%.
British Gilts were by far the worst performer, down +10Pts to 4.2430 from 4.143% on Friday evening.


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