Still no sign of consolidation on the bond markets (unlike equities on Wall Street Wednesday evening): all is serenity, calm and voluptuousness.

A small downside with T-Bonds, which had started the American day very well (-5Pts to 3.827%, the lowest since mid-July) but reversed course in the late afternoon: they simply returned to equilibrium at 3.878%.
British Gilts once again stood out, down +4pts to 3.565%.

The trend remains invariably positive in Europe, with a slight easing of rates on OATs and Bunds (-1.5pts to 2.4700% and 1.963% respectively), followed by Italian BTPs (-4pts to 3.5710%).
This just goes to show the degree of optimism on both sides of the Atlantic that monetary policy will be radically eased in 2024, on the assumption that, with Europe already posting zero growth, the ECB can do no less than the FED to prevent the recession extending well into 2024.

Thursday's trading session was notable for its linearity: the day's 4 US figures elicited no reaction whatsoever.

No reaction to the downward revision of US third-quarter GDP growth from +5.2% to 4.9% (final estimate).

No reaction to the announcement of a further deterioration in the Philly Fed index, which stood at -10.5 this month versus -5.9 in November, whereas economists were expecting it to be around -3.

The sub-index measuring the evolution of new orders received by companies moved back into the red zone, at -25.6 versus +1.3 last month, as did the employment component, down from +0.8 to -1.7 month-on-month.

The indicator covering prices paid, on the other hand, rose to +25.1 from +14.8 in November.

No reaction to the -0.5% decline in the index of indicators in November (after -1% in October): the Conference Board, which calculates these figures, anticipates a recession in early 2024.

Weekly jobless claims rose marginally (+2,000 to 205,000) at the end of the week to December 11, up by 2,000 on the previous week's revised figure (203,000, compared with 202,000 initially announced).

The four-week moving average - more representative of the underlying trend - came in at 212,000 last week, down by 1,500 on the previous week's revised average

All of today's data would support the scenario of a "soft landing", or even that of a "fairy tale" ("goldilocks") combining moderate growth and low inflation (no recession, no significant drop in corporate profits).

But in that case, what need would there be for the FED to cut its key rate 6, 8 or 10 times in 2024?

The climax will coincide with tomorrow's household income and spending figures, which will include the PCE price index, closely watched by the Federal Reserve.


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