Bond markets are confirming the rally that began in early November, and the sharp decline seen at the start of the week.

In Europe, the yield on our OATs (-7Pts to 2.988%) has fallen back below 3% for the first time since August 31 or July 25.
Note the OECD's sharp downward revision of France's GDP from 1.2% to +0.8% (the government is forecasting +1.4%, after +1.1% in 2023).

The ten-year Bund yield also fell by -7pts to 2.422%, while the first estimate of German consumer prices for November was down 0.6 points to +3.2%, its lowest level since June 2021 (+2.4%), according to Destatis' preliminary estimate.
The German institute highlights the 4.5% year-on-year fall in energy prices.
Excluding food and energy, underlying inflation is expected to come in at +3.8% for the month just ended, compared with +4.3% in October.

Another very good day for T-Bonds, whose yield also fell by -6pts to 4.273%, the lowest since September 14.
Richmond Fed President Fred Barkin believes that the markets are jumping the gun on rate cuts in 2024: "My expectations are quite far from those of the market".

His colleague Raphaël Bostik, who has a much more dove-like reputation, believes that inflation will eventually converge towards 2%.

US rates welcomed the upward revision of US third-quarter GDP to +5.2%, reflecting much stronger growth than the 4.9% initially announced.

Consumption and investment (revised upwards) are the 2 main drivers of the most spectacular growth recorded since Q4 2020.
No negative reaction to the publication of a widening of the trade balance deficit by +$3 billion to $89.84 billion in October, whereas economists were forecasting a very slight increase to $86.70 billion.





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