The dollar continues to yo-yo, alternating up and down with the regularity of a metronome: on Thursday, it recovered 0.25%, the $-Index climbed back to 103.5... but the horizontal stagnation continues.
The Euro lost 0.35% to 1.0835 after the ECB press conference, which maintained its main deposit rate at 4% for the second time.
Christine Lagarde notes that the disinflation trend is continuing and rates are sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation back to the 2% target.
But from her recent statements - and those of her rather hawkish lieutenants - it is clear that the ECB remains vigilant with regard to the price-wage spiral, that it considers expectations of rate cuts to be premature, that it remains 'data dependent' and will only modify the cost of money once the FED has acted first ('rather this summer than in the spring': the ECB could wait until July).

As today's press release was very short and did not contain any original announcements, Forex traders noted the disappearance of a recurring 'hawkish' phrase: 'domestic inflationary pressures remain'.
On the economic front: the job market remains robust, with unemployment at its lowest level for 20 years; growth is virtually nil, but could pick up again if demand picks up... but conflicts (Ukraine, Israel, Yemen) pose risks for global activity... and transport prices.
The current inflation rate remains close to 3.4% in the core sector, but has reached 4% in the services sector.

US figures: the dollar was naturally supported by US real GDP (gross domestic product) growth for the fourth quarter of 2023, which came out +1% to +1.3% higher than expected, at +3.3% annualized, according to a very first estimate from the Commerce Department.

Growth in the world's leading economy is easing off from the roaring 4.9% seen in the third quarter, but should reach 2.5% in 2024, well above the 2% previously forecast.
The increase in the fourth quarter was mainly due to growth in consumer spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased', says the Commerce Department.
Surprise, too, on the new single-family home sales front: they rebounded by 8% in December 2023 compared with the previous month, to an annualized rate of 664,000 units, according to the Commerce Department, following a 9% drop in November.

The median home price was $413,200, and the average price came in at $487,300. The stock of new homes for sale stands at 453,000, representing a reserve of around 8.2 months at the current rate of sales.

Let's take a look at the figures published in Europe: the business climate in France is stable compared with December 2023, according to the Insee synthetic indicator, which remains at 98, a level slightly below its long-term average (100).

Still on the statistical front, the business climate in Germany deteriorated in January, confirming the recessionary dynamic in which Europe's leading economy is evolving, according to the monthly survey published Thursday by the Ifo institute.

The Ifo index - calculated from a sample of some 9,000 companies - came out at 85.2 this month, compared with 86.3 in December, while economists were on average expecting a slight improvement to 86.6.

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