NAPERVILLE, Illinois, July 17 (Reuters) - U.S. Crop Watch corn and soybean conditions rose for a third consecutive week last week as the milder July weather has erased much of the crop stress caused by the historically dry June.
Last week’s favorable weather also slightly lifted yield prospects for both crops, though many areas may face drier conditions in the second half of July, and none of the Crop Watch fields are safe from losses without more rain.
Crop Watch producers are rating crop conditions and yield potential on 1-to-5 scales. The condition scores are a primarily visual assessment similar to the U.S. government’s where 1 is very poor, 3 is average and 5 is excellent.
Yield potential is meant to capture both visible and non-visible elements. On this scale, 3 is around farm average yield, 4 is solidly above average and 5 is among the best crops ever.
The 11-field unweighted corn condition score rose to 4.2 from 4.14 last week on quarter-point bumps in North Dakota, Minnesota and Nebraska. That is the best since May 28’s 10-field average of 4.4, though the improvement margin was smaller than in the prior two weeks.
The 11-field soybean condition score rose near a season-best of 4.18 from 4.11 last week as a quarter-point loss in North Dakota was outweighed by quarter-point rises in Minnesota and Nebraska and a half-point jump in western Illinois. This was the same degree of overall improvement as last week.
Yield potential for both crops rose slightly more than conditions. Producers in Nebraska, western Illinois and Indiana made quarter-point increases to corn yield and a half-point was added in southeastern Illinois.
That bumped the 11-field corn yield to 4.07 from the initial 3.95 last week. Soybean yield rose to 4.16 from 4.07 last week on quarter-point rises in Minnesota, Nebraska and western Illinois. Southeastern Illinois beans rose by a half-point though North Dakota dropped a quarter-point due to stunted growth.
WEATHER CONCERNS
Only four of the 11 Crop Watch locations received more than an inch of rain over the last week, but a couple were critical. Minnesota picked up 1.8 inches mid-week, the largest rain in eight weeks, and 1.75 inches fell for Indiana on Friday night, its biggest single rain of the season.
Eastern Iowa had 1.7 inches and Kansas 1.2 inches last week. South Dakota, Nebraska and western Illinois received between 0.7 and 0.9 inch, and a half-inch or less was observed in North Dakota, western Iowa, southeastern Illinois and Ohio. All locations observed normal to cooler temperatures.
Forecasts as of Monday morning suggest most of the Corn Belt will see below-average rainfall through the end of the month, and this week’s drier spots could include much of Iowa, Minnesota and northern Illinois. Favorably cool temperatures are likely this week though heat could return next week.
The Minnesota location has been among Crop Watch’s driest this year, and the producer says he will become anxious again in one week without rain. Eastern Iowa has been among the wetter locations, and that producer would be nervous in about two weeks if it stays dry.
The western Iowa producer describes his moisture situation as “living on the edge.” The western Iowa crop ratings are near perfect, but rainfall amounts have been just enough so far to fight against the depleted subsoil moisture.
The following are the states and counties of the 2023 Crop Watch corn and soybean fields: Kingsbury, South Dakota; Freeborn, Minnesota; Burt, Nebraska; Rice, Kansas; Audubon, Iowa; Cedar, Iowa; Warren, Illinois; Crawford, Illinois; Tippecanoe, Indiana; Fairfield, Ohio. The North Dakota corn is in Griggs County and the soybeans are in Stutsman County.
Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. (Reporting by Karen Braun Editing by Matthew Lewis)
