All Eyes on Imports & Exports: The Changing Dynamics of Fertilizer Supply & Demand

Inexpensive natural gas and a robust agricultural economy have triggered renewed interest in the expansion of fertilizer production in the United States. Recently, CF Industries has increased capacity in its Donaldsonville, Louisiana and Port Neal, Iowa facilities, Agrium is increasing production at its Borger, Texas facility, and OCI is building a new facility in Wever, Iowa. This rise in domestic supply could change the dynamics of supply and demand in the United States as less emphasis will be placed on imports and producers may begin to export more frequently. Genscape is monitoring these activities using our state-of-the-art sensor network, and we have already observed signs of these changes.

Genscape monitors production in real-time at fertilizer production facilities leveraging natural gas use information, electricity consumption, and thermal cameras. For instance, Genscape has already been monitoring the production at the new CF Industries Port Neal Iowa facility (figure one). Our data indicates production at the facility was approaching capacity in early January 2017, but has recently stopped. We captured this information for our clients on the day the facility slowed production, providing them with timely information released months before industry reports, allowing our clients to make more informed decisions.

Genscape also monitors imports and exports using our proprietary Genscape Vesseltracker™ network of terrestrial AIS sensors which track global vessel movements. We validate our findings with United States customs data that we obtain through the Freedom of Information Act typically within one week of arrival, and do not rely on other groups such as PIERS or Datamyne to provide us with the information. We have spent the past two years developing a database of berths that import and export fertilizer to and from the United States. Our geographic information system monitors berths around the globe every twenty minutes, tracking vessel movements and we notify our clients when a vessel loaded with fertilizer reports a United States destination.

For instance, a chemical tanker recently berthed at the CF Industries Facility in Donaldsonville, Louisiana. The vessel came into the pier with a draft of 8.5 meters indicating empty. The vessel stayed at the berth for several days before leaving with a draft indicating full with a destination of Ghent, Belgium, a port that imports urea ammonium nitrate (UAN). With a liquid capacity of 52,230 cubic meters, the vessel would be exporting close to 40,000 metric tons of UAN, an amount equivalent to about one third of what the U.S. typically imports in a month. The removal of this much UAN from the expected U.S. supply could significantly impact the demand for the product. With expansions at this facility with its own ocean-going berths, CF Industries has the option to run the fertilizer up the Mississippi River by barge or to other parts of the U.S. via rail or to export to other countries.

The increased U.S. production of fertilizer is causing important shifts in the way fertilizer is moved in and out of the country. Genscape's Fertilizer Production and Transportation Reports provide our clients with real-time information on the production, import, and export of fertilizer allowing them to immediately react when product changes are occurring as opposed to months later when others release the data.

Every day Genscape alerts clients to importing and exporting fertilizer vessels and fertilizer facility production outages or reductions. Weekly, we provide a detailed report that models U.S. production of anhydrous, urea, and UAN and lists all imports and exports for our clients. We also share a detailed import/export vessel data list that includes several months of historical data.

Genscape Vesseltracker provides access to near-real-time and highly accurate vessel/class-type shipping data. Market participants can leverage AIS data to gain insight into the status of imports and exports worldwide. To learn more about Genscape Vesseltracker, or to request a trial, please click here.