A MACRO MINUTE: China to put its threats into effect, oil rumors in the US ...
Welcome back to our daily review of macroeconomic and geopolitical news impacting financial markets around the world. Today, Europe is spinning around Germany as US markets will be closed this 4th of July. Here are the main events of today, updated regularly as fresh announcements come in.
United States. On the eve of Independence Day, the rumor that Washington may soon be using its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has divided the Brent and WTI stocks. This morning, the former one gains 0.1% while the latter loses more than 1.2%. Most of the time, both prices are correlated. We'll now have to wait until tomorrow and the publication of the weekly reserve data in the US.
China. An opposite trend for the Yuan: the Chinese central bank intervened yesterday – verbally only – to confirm its will to keep its currency at a "balanced" level. The Yuan is thus stronger against the US dollar, especially since the Chinese government indicated that its currency wouldn't be used as a "tool" in the trade war against the US. Caution is still wise as Chinese retaliations will start at midnight on July the 6th affecting $ 34 billion worth of US products.
Germany. For the past few days, everything revolved around Angela Merkel in Europe. The SPD has not yet agreed to enter the CDU/CSU alliance on migrants – much to the discontent of the German index, down 0.3% this morning. The agreement of the coalition remains unsigned.
Eurozone. The Purchasing Managers' Index – aka PMI – rose in the Eurozone from 54.1 in May to 54.9 in June. Chris Williamson, an economist at IHS Markit, is thus anticipating a GDP increase of just over 0.5% for the second quarter of 2018. However, internal political tensions could slightly worsen the upcoming indicators, he said.
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