IHS Markit : Global Dividend Growth Expected to Recover in 2021 as Payouts Hit 1.78 trillion USD, IHS Markit Says

Global Dividend Growth Expected to Recover in 2021 as Payouts Hit 1.78 trillion USD, IHS Markit Says

Increase driven by wider availability of a COVID-19 vaccine, strength of the Asia Pacific and emerging markets

January 14, 2021

LONDON (January 14, 2021) - Total dividend payouts are expected to increase by 6.5 percent, from 1.67 trillion USD in 2020 to 1.78 trillion USD this year, according to a new report from IHS Markit (NYSE: INFO), a world leader in critical information, analytics and solutions. Total dividend payouts fell last year by more than 113 billion USD as the COVID-19 pandemic caused unprecedented volatility and led to suspensions from some of the largest payers.

'With the uncertainties of the Brexit deal and U.S. elections behind us, and the availability of the vaccine expected to reduce uncertainty, we expect more companies to resume payments or grow dividends in 2021,' said Amira Abdulkadir, head of U.S. dividend forecasting, IHS Markit.

According to IHS Markit, the recovery in dividend payouts will vary across regions. Dividends in the U.S. are expected to fall 0.7 percent this year on declines in the banking and oil and gas sectors. While not expected to surpass 2019 levels, dividends in the Eurozone and the U.K. are expected to increase 22 percent and 30 percent, respectively, on strength of recovery in insurer and bank dividends. Dividends in Asia Pacific are expected to grow by 6.7 percent in 2021, with growth expected across sectors, with the exceptions of travel and leisure and oil and gas.

The banking sector is expected to regain its ranking as top dividend payer with global sector dividends expected to grow by 10.9 percent to 214.2 billion USD in 2021 after 2020 saw significant cuts and payment suspensions. Banking sector growth will be driven by the projected 80 percent dividend growth in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, as well as a more modest 5 percent growth in Asia Pacific. IHS Markit expects a slight drop in banking sector payouts in the Americas.

The report also reveals:

• The insurance sector will be the fastest growing sector in 2021 with a 20 percent growth rate.
• Oil and gas is projected to remain one of the highest paying sectors, but it is also one of the most vulnerable to price volatility; if oil prices stay above 40 USD/barrel, the break-even price for most companies, many should be able to maintain dividends.
• Distributions from emerging markets are predicted to increase by 6.0 percent, with Mainland China the top contributor.

The IHS Markit 2021 Dividend Forecast draws on a bottom-up analysis of 12,500 companies.

For the full 2021 Dividend Forecasting report, please contact Katherine Smith. Click here for more information on IHS Markit Dividend Forecasting.

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About IHS Markit (www.ihsmarkit.com)

IHS Markit (NYSE: INFO) is a world leader in critical information, analytics and solutions for the major industries and markets that drive economies worldwide. The company delivers next-generation information, analytics and solutions to customers in business, finance and government, improving their operational efficiency and providing deep insights that lead to well-informed, confident decisions. IHS Markit has more than 50,000 business and government customers, including 80 percent of the Fortune Global 500 and the world's leading financial institutions. Headquartered in London, IHS Markit is committed to sustainable, profitable growth.

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