Corrected Transcript

29-Feb-2024

Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc. (HYFM)

Q4 2023 Earnings Call

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Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc. (HYFM)

Corrected Transcript

Q4 2023 Earnings Call

29-Feb-2024

CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS

Anna Kate Heller

Bruce John Lindeman

Senior Vice President-Investor Relations, ICR

Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer, Hydrofarm Holdings

William D. Toler

Group, Inc.

Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc.

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OTHER PARTICIPANTS

W. Andrew Carter

Jesse Redmond

Analyst, Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.

Analyst, Water Tower Research LLC

Peter Grom

Harold Weber

Analyst, UBS Securities LLC

Analyst, Aegis Capital Corp.

Davis Holcombe

Analyst, Truist Securities, Inc.

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MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION SECTION

Operator: Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Hydrofarm Holdings Group Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen- only mode and the lines will be open for your questions following the presentation. Please note that this conference is being recorded today, February 29, 2024.

I would now like to turn the call over to Anna Kate Heller of ICR to begin. Please go ahead.

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Anna Kate Heller

Senior Vice President-Investor Relations, ICR

Thank you, and good morning. With me on the call today is Bill Toler, Hydrofarm's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Lindeman, the company's Chief Financial Officer. By now, everyone should have access to our fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings release and Form 8-K issued this morning. These documents are available on the Investors section of Hydrofarm's website at www.hydrofarm.com.

Before we begin our formal remarks, please note that our discussion today will include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and therefore, you should not put undue reliance on them. These statements are also subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. We refer all of you to our recent SEC filings for a more detailed discussion of the risks that could impact our future operating results and financial conditions.

Lastly, during today's call, we will discuss non-GAAP measures, which we believe can be useful in evaluating our performance. The presentation of this additional information should not be considered in isolation or as a

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Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc. (HYFM)

Corrected Transcript

Q4 2023 Earnings Call

29-Feb-2024

substitute for results prepared in accordance with GAAP, and reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures are available in our earnings release.

With that, I would like to turn the call over to Bill Toler.

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William D. Toler

Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc.

Thank you, Anna Kate, and good morning, everyone. We achieved positive adjusted EBITDA and positive free cash flow for the full year 2023 as we had provided in our outlook even at lower sales levels. Throughout 2023, our team worked very hard to execute our restructuring and related cost savings initiatives, which allowed us to achieve the improvement in several profitability metrics that we are reporting today, including adjusted gross profit, adjusted gross profit margin in 2023 for both the fourth quarter and the full year.

Our initiatives included streamlining our product portfolio to enable greater emphasis on our higher-margin proprietary brands, continued focus on inventory reduction and overall working capital management, better space utilization in our distribution centers and cost reductions in our transportation and logistics. Our cash balance, overall liquidity and ability to generate positive free cash flow as we have demonstrated in the last two fiscal years give me confidence about where we are from a balance sheet perspective.

On the top line, our 2023 sales fell short of our guidance range due to several key factors. Fourth quarter sales were lower primarily due to industry softness in the US specialty retail channel. You may hear from others in the industry that retail stores and cultivation facilities have been closing as the US cannabis industry remains bogged down in regulatory challenges.

These issues have led to an overall reduction in demand from retail stores and cultivation facilities. For example, regulators are enacting stronger enforcement in Oklahoma, and many facilities and stores are closing down as a result. We believe these changes will ultimately be good for the long-term health of our industry as the stronger players will consolidate to create a more stable market environment.

There are a number of bright spots in 2023 that we will carry into 2024 and continue to build on, which I'd like to highlight. Our proprietary nutrient brands continue to perform well. In fact, sales grew in the fourth quarter and for the full year of 2023 when you compare them to 2022. Because proprietary nutrient brands is one of our higher- margin product lines, the increased portion of sales mix helped to support margin improvement and also helped us to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA for 2023.

Another area of focus in 2023 was to diversify our revenue streams. We have made progress in this area through both geographic and product diversity. Our international sales, which are to customers outside the US and Canada, and non-cannabis sales of CEA products sold into food, floral, lawn and garden and certain other customers increased to about 25% of our total 2023 sales, up from 22% in the prior year.

In 2024, we will continue to develop geographic and sales channel diversity. Hydroponic sales in the US and Canada are still our core business, but the revenue diversity will help support us as we are navigating challenging industry dynamics.

Several potential catalysts are on the horizon for the cannabis industry. The first is the possibility of federal de- scheduling, which should inject new life into the industry by reducing taxes on legal plant-touching businesses, enabling them to reinvest. The SAFER Banking Act share attracting renewed investment from both institutional and retail players.

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Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc. (HYFM)

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Q4 2023 Earnings Call

29-Feb-2024

And importantly, since the beginning of 2023, there are an additional seven US states that have legalized adult- use cannabis, which means now there's an estimated 54% of US adults who live in a legalized state. Momentum is beginning to swing positively internationally as well as Germany just legalized recreational cannabis use last week.

We are confident that Hydrofarm will continue to navigate our path forward, and we are well positioned when the industry returns to growth. I'm very proud of the entire team at Hydrofarm for all their hard work this year in delivering positive adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow in 2023.

With that, I'll turn it over to John to discuss further details of the fourth quarter financial results and our outlook for 2024. John?

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Bruce John Lindeman

Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer, Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc.

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. Net sales for the fourth quarter were $47.2 million, down 23.2% year- over-year driven primarily by an 18.7% decrease in sales volume and a 4.5% price/mix decline. While we anticipated softer sales volumes in Q4, which is standard cadence for the business, the softness was larger than we had expected. Our price/mix decline in the quarter was primarily driven by promotional activity in our durable products as well as a higher mix of lower-priced consumable products relative to our higher-priced durables.

Our sales mix continues to evolve. And for the full year, consumable products represented approximately 74% of our sales compared to 65% in 2022. Our proprietary brands continued to mix higher on a year-over-year basis and approach 60% of our total net sales in the fourth quarter, our highest ever quarterly level since our IPO. Some of this mix shift was a reflection of the encouraging demand for our proprietary nutrient brands.

Accompanying our favorable brand mix for the quarter was continued sales diversification. As Bill noted, our international and non-cannabis sales increased from a sales mix perspective in Q4 2023 and for the full year and now represent approximately a quarter of our total sales. In 2024, we will look to further capitalize on what is working today, focusing on improving our mix of proprietary brands, most notably our proprietary nutrients as well as having further momentum in our international and non-cannabis sales.

Gross profit in the fourth quarter was $8.4 million compared to a gross loss of $0.5 million in the year-ago period. Adjusted gross profit was $11.5 million or 24.3% of net sales compared to $9 million or 14.7% of net sales in the year-ago period. This represents a significant adjusted gross profit margin expansion when compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 and 130 basis point expansion when compared to our vastly improved third quarter margin. This margin expansion demonstrates continued progress on more favorable brand mix, lower freight costs and improved productivity.

As you may recall from our Q3 call, we initiated a second phase of our restructuring plan, which includes US manufacturing facility consolidations intended to improve efficiency and further rightsize our footprint. This second phase is primarily focused on our durable product manufacturing operations.

In the fourth quarter, we recorded $1.3 million of restructuring expenses, which included non-cash inventory write- downs associated with the reduction in durable manufacturing and warehousing space. In total, when you combine our Phase 1 and Phase 2 restructuring initiatives, along with our sublease cost-saving activities, we expect that by the end of 2024, we will have reduced our company-wide manufacturing and distribution footprint a little over 25% since the start of 2023.

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Q4 2023 Earnings Call

29-Feb-2024

Selling, general and administrative expense was $19.9 million in the fourth quarter compared to $26.2 million in the year-ago period. Adjusted SG&A expenses were $12 million, a significant 31% reduction when compared to $17.4 million in the year-ago period. The decrease was primarily driven by reductions in head count, professional fees, lower accounts receivable reserves, distribution center facility costs and insurance costs. Our Q4 adjusted SG&A expense remained in line with our third quarter, which was our lowest quarterly total since before going public.

Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $0.6 million in the fourth quarter compared to a loss of $8.4 million in the prior year period. The $7.8 million improvement was driven by our lower adjusted SG&A expenses and our higher adjusted gross profits. Most notably, for the full year, we achieved positive adjusted EBITDA, which deliver on our expectations and demonstrates the effectiveness of our improved proprietary brand mix in our restructuring, productivity and cost-saving initiatives.

Moving on to our balance sheet and overall liquidity position. Our cash balance as of December 31, 2023, was $30.3 million, an improvement by $9 million compared to the end of 2022. We ended the year with approximately $123 million of term debt, approximately $132 million of total debt when you include finance lease liabilities, and approximately $102 million of net debt.

As a continued reminder, our term loan facility has no financial maintenance covenant, and our debt facility does not mature until October 2028. We continued to maintain a zero balance on our revolving credit facility throughout the fourth quarter and across the entire 2023 fiscal year.

In the fourth quarter, we reported a loss from operating activities of $1.6 million with capital investment of $0.2 million, yielding negative free cash flow of $1.7 million. However, our positive adjusted EBITDA and our disciplined management of working capital throughout the year helped us generate positive free cash flow as expected for the full year 2023.

With that, let me turn to our full year 2024 outlook. We expect net sales to decline low to high teens on a percentage basis for the full year 2024. As we have seen each sequential quarter since Q4 2022, we expect the quarterly declines to decelerate over the coming years.

We also expect to see an increase in adjusted gross profit margin primarily due to improved sales mix and our restructuring and related cost-saving initiatives. We expect adjusted EBITDA that is positive for the full year 2024. This assumes improved adjusted gross profit margin and adjusted SG&A expense savings to more than offset some limited productivity investments. We also do not expect any significant charges related to non-restructuring inventory write-downs or accounts receivable for the full year.

Finally, we expect to generate positive free cash flow in 2024. We will continue to reduce our working capital inventory levels. I will note that we do expect capital expenditures of approximately $4 million to $5 million in the year.

In closing, we remain optimistic about the future of the industry and the future of Hydrofarm. This year, we proved we can operate profitably despite lower sales levels as we delivered positive adjusted EBITDA and positive free cash flow. And we look forward to continuing to deliver these results in 2024.

Thank you all for joining us, and we are now happy to answer any questions. Operator, please open the line.

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Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc. (HYFM)

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Q4 2023 Earnings Call

29-Feb-2024

QUESTION AND ANSWER SECTION

Operator: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Andrew Carter with Stifel. Please go ahead.

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W. Andrew Carter

Analyst, Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.

Q

Yeah. Hey, thank you. Good morning. First thing I wanted to ask is, so your guidance here implies low teens to high-teens decline, therefore kind of $27 million to $39 million of lost revenue, but you have flat EBITDA. Could you kind of take us through - I know that there's productivity in there at the gross margin line as well as the SG&A.

Can you take us through how much is like productivity/savings versus just improvements in the underlying gross margin from favorable supply chain costs? I assume that will be hitting on a lag as well as you mentioned the mix up of proprietary brands. Thanks.

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William D. Toler

Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc.

Thanks, Andrew.

A

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Bruce John Lindeman

Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer, Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc.

A

Yeah. Good morning, Andrew, I could jump in on that. There's a couple of things that will be driving it. I mean you heard us mention an improvement in adjusted gross profit margin for the full year 2024 versus 2023. Obviously, we ended last year roughly a 24% adjusted gross profit margin. We expect that our improved sales mix, so higher proprietary brands, we have a couple of hundred basis point opportunity to improve that in 2024 versus 2023.

And I think, as you know, our proprietary nutrients are really inside of that number of proprietary brands more broadly and really represent one of the more profitable pieces of our overall business. We also think we have a couple of hundred basis point margin opportunity to improve in terms of percentage of sales for proprietary nutrients.

On top of that, with the restructuring that we've been instituting and other related productivity and cost-saving initiatives, we do think that we'll reduce some space to reduce overhead costs. And our labor pool, our manufacturing durable facility located in Chicago, we've already instituted some of that and more work to do there. But overall, that's gone pretty well, and we've reduced basically a third of our space there.

We also have an opportunity to further consolidate our manufacturing facilities with respect to some of our consumable operations. And while we haven't yet quite accomplished that, that's on the bill for 2024 and should extract savings similar in terms of reducing overhead costs and improving productivity in our main nutrient manufacturing facility.

We also - and I think you see that through our results in 2023, we captured some freight savings last year really in the back half of 2023. We will get some lap benefit in the first half of 2024 as we continue to achieve lower LTL and local freight rates. So that will be a favorable comparison in the first half of the year.

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Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc. (HYFM)

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Q4 2023 Earnings Call

29-Feb-2024

On top of that, at the SG&A level, we still have very many benefits that are coming our way in 2024. We have expected lap benefit from savings that we achieved last year in terms of head count reductions. We reduced head count by only - by almost 25% during 2023. And so in the first half of 2024, we should see some benefit from that. We also expect in 2024, we'll have lower professional fees, distribution facility costs related to our subleasing activities. We've been subleasing a lot of our excess distribution warehouse space. And then on top of that, we have some insurance expense savings.

So as I think you're gathering, I mean, there's a lot of savings opportunity, much of which we've already instituted, some of which is still going to come, which we think gives us margin opportunity at the gross profit level as well as more savings at the SG&A level.

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W. Andrew Carter

Analyst, Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.

Q

Okay. Thank you. That was helpful. I guess the second question is, and I think we just got a press release that GrowGen picked up the Quest business. There, obviously, is the largest manufacturer/distributor out there. Scott is focusing more on signature. Are a lot of like some of the kind of third-party distributed brands out there kind of in play or some of those that were going to direct to retail now looking for a different solution has become economical? What is the landscape like out there in terms of kind of the opportunities for third party? Or should we just think about this more as just focusing on really driving proprietary?

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William D. Toler

Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc.

A

Yeah. I think that's clearly the proprietary part of it, Andrew, it's a good question, has been the big winner for us, right? What's happened in the distributed side of things is as the primary hydroponic distributors, primarily us and Hawthorne over the last few years, weren't delivering the volumes. These third-party brands went to other lawn and garden suppliers, direct to retail, other number of things. And so they've kind of diluted themselves across the market with a number of supply points.

So what we have done conversely is make sure that we continue to supply those because it makes us the industry distributor we are, but also really focus on our proprietary signature house brands, whatever, however you call them. And in doing that, you're seeing us be able to uphold slightly positive EBITDA for last year but has the mix benefit of driving the profitable house brands.

In my script and I think in John's as well, we said that our proprietary nutrient brands actually grew year-on-year. Well, that's a very different story than what our total company did.

And the weakness, frankly, has been in this - mostly in these distributed brands as they have diluted themselves across a number of supply points across the industry. And we're talking to all those guys as well to figure out the right partners to have. And we'll go forward with a good mix of distributed brands. But really, it's - proprietary is kind of driving the bus.

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W. Andrew Carter

Analyst, Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.

Thanks. I'll pass it on.

Q

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Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc. (HYFM)

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Q4 2023 Earnings Call

29-Feb-2024

William D. Toler

A

Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc.

Thanks. Appreciate it Andrew.

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Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from Peter Grom with UBS. Please go ahead.

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Peter Grom

Analyst, UBS Securities LLC

Thanks, operator. Good morning, guys. Hope you doing well.

Q

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William D. Toler

Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc.

Hey, Peter.

A

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Peter Grom

Analyst, UBS Securities LLC

Q

So I just wanted to ask - hey, how are you doing, Bill. I wanted to ask on visibility. You kind of take a step back, you kind of look at the implied revenue guidance for this year, and I was just kind of going back to the model. It's even below 2018 levels. And I know the business has cyclicality, but it just feels like the downward pressure has been far more pronounced than we all would have anticipated.

So when we think about the guidance for this year, low teens to high-teens decline, what's your degree of confidence in that? What are kind of the underlying drivers of that? Just trying to understand when you said we will reach a bottom here, just given kind of the performance we've seen over the last several years.

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William D. Toler

Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc.

A

Yeah, I think we have reached the bottom. The question is when are we coming off of it, right? And so we really felt like it was important for us to plan the year at being slightly profitably - profitable at the lowest sales level we've given out, right? That's kind of our responsibility to come to you with that. And then go out and try and beat those numbers, right? That's the goal here is to say, all right, let's say it's in the high teens, which I think hopefully is a worst, worst-case scenario, then we need to be ready to be profitable at that level. And then let's get better than that, and then we should have a really nice business and a really good outcome.

But I do think we are at a bottom. I think we've been at a bottom, frankly, for the last four or five months as an industry. And I think you're starting to see some things get a little bit better. Our visibility into kind of March, April, May with the pre-bookings around a lot of the [ph] grow media (00:20:48) look good bit better than it did a year ago.

But we've got this dilution among the distributor brands has created this sort of drag and anchor on us that's creating the total number not being where we'd like it to be. But we also really think it's important that we put a number out there, set up our cost structures and our strategies around hitting - making money at the lowest possible level that we're talking about and then going out there and trying to beat those numbers. And that's really what our goal is and how we structured this year's guidance.

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Q4 2023 Earnings Call

29-Feb-2024

Peter Grom

Q

Analyst, UBS Securities LLC

No. That's very helpful, Bill. And I guess maybe a question just following up on that, just the positive adjusted EBITDA like kind of following up on Andrew's question. Like, I guess, obviously positive is anything above zero. Can you maybe provide some guardrails in terms of how we should think about our model? Like should we expect kind of similar EBITDA profit dollars versus what we saw this year? Should we expect sequential improvement?

Just trying to understand because both we and consensus have something that's more in the high single-digit million dollar range. And I'm not sure if that's far too optimistic at this point, given the weaker revenue outlook.

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William D. Toler

Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc.

A

Yeah. I think it is optimistic at this point because you got - you had a higher fourth quarter and a higher 2024 building off that, that created that sort of consensus. And at this point, we said modestly positive last year, and it was very modest. It was more modest than we'd like it to be. We're saying positive this year.

Yeah, I think we'd like to do better than we did certainly in 2023. But we're not nearly in a position yet to start putting any kind of guardrails around how much that will be, how many millions of dollars or where.

But a lot of it depends on what range we come in on the top line. In fact, all of it depends on that range because we've got our costs very much under control, but we're not ready to kind of put any finer point on that. But we expect to be and want to be and are going to work to be positive EBITDA this year.

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Peter Grom

Analyst, UBS Securities LLC

Got it. Thanks so much. I'll pass it on.

Q

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William D. Toler

Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc.

Thanks, Peter.

A

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Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Bill Chappell with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

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Davis Holcombe

Analyst, Truist Securities, Inc.

Q

Hi, good morning. This is Davis Holcombe on for Chappell. You all had mentioned the seven new legalized adult- use states in 2023, and we're just kind of wondering what sort of demand you might be seeing out of those newly legalized states. And what kind of maybe regulatory environments they may have compared to some of the existing states that you all are operating in?

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William D. Toler

Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc.

A

Yeah. I think the newer states, whether it's the Ohios or Missouris, they are some of our better performing states right now. The challenges, first of all, scale-wise, they're very small compared to your Colorados or Californias or Oregon or Michigan. So it takes a while to do it. There's a lag between legalization and implementation. And then,

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of course, there's kind of the political dynamics that have slowed implementation even in places like in New York and New Jersey, but they've actually been finally picking up.

It's just a matter of scale that you've got these long legacy states that are a lot bigger than the new ones, but you're definitely seeing that shift now. I mean California used to be by itself 50%, 60% of the total business. Now it's probably in the low 30s or less. And I think that's true for everybody in the industry as it shifted the overall business to the newer states into a more balanced thing.

And you also got that unique dynamic in Oklahoma where Oklahoma at one point had nearly there were just under 20,000 licenses in the US, Oklahoma had half of them at one point, but fortunately, Oklahoma's regulatory folks have gotten a little more strict, and they're cutting that down. License are cut in half from what they were in Oklahoma, which is encouraging because you need a good balance of production and consumption.

The newer states are seeming to learn from the mistakes of others, and they're doing a much better job of regulating the number of dispensaries tied with the number of grows, tied with the actual population and ultimate demand. So people are learning, but it's just been very, very slow and a lot more interruptions than it should be. The lack of federal guidance and federal sanity, if you will, in this has really kind of cast a huge shadow over the whole category for the last three or four years.

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Davis Holcombe

Analyst, Truist Securities, Inc.

That's excellent color. Thank you so much. I'm going to pass it on.

Q

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William D. Toler

Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc.

Thanks, Davis.

A

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Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from Jesse Redmond with Water Tower Research. Please go ahead.

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Jesse Redmond

Analyst, Water Tower Research LLC

Q

Good morning, guys. I had a question on the catalyst side. We're looking at the multistate operators and just the plant-touching businesses, certainly a potential for Schedule III and Schedule II of the [indiscernible] (00:25:40) removal is the biggest thing on the horizon. Can you talk a little bit about how Schedule III could be helpful to you, although you are a plant-touching operator? Do you see that freeing up budgets and potentially increasing CapEx? Or do you see that as not being a meaningful catalyst for your business?

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William D. Toler

Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc.

A

No. We think that can be a very important catalyst in terms of particularly durable orders, but also just a confidence and sentiment around the whole category that it's now time to lean in and invest again. I think you've got investors staying on the sidelines, you've got MSOs staying on the sidelines, people holding capital back, interest rates obviously been harder. So that's - if you can get that, it's hard to put on these businesses. And so everybody is kind of in a holding pattern as we're waiting for this big move from Schedule I to Schedule III.

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Hydrofarm Holdings Group Inc. published this content on 14 May 2024 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 15 May 2024 10:54:10 UTC.