Eckert & Ziegler AG
Germany - High-tech Engineering
Buy (old: Buy) | 09-December-22 | ||||||
Price target: EUR 120.00 (old: EUR 120.00) | Alexander Galitsa | ||||||
Analyst | |||||||
Price: | EUR 49.88 | Next result: | Q4 30.03.23 | ||||
Bloomberg: | EUZ GR | Market cap: | EUR 1,032.3 m | alexander.galitsa@ha-ib.de | |||
Tel.: +49 40 414 3885 83 | |||||||
Reuters: | EUZG.DE | Enterprise Value: | EUR 973.6 m | ||||
Pluvicto TAM expansion bodes well for Lu-177 and Ga-68 demand
A highly relevant x-read from Novartis took a back seat amid a placement of 1.0 million shares by an institutional investor (Invesco Ltd.) taking place at € 47/share (15% discount). The market reacted negatively with shares dropping and stabilizing at c. € 49.
First and foremost, we do not view the placement as a harbinger of bad news. In fact, we expect news flow to remain positive on the back of a likely FY guidance beat/hike, Lu-177DMF submission and additional customer wins for hot cells, CMO services and isotope supplies. Hence, the market reaction seems misplaced.
More importantly, the positive Phase 3 data from Novartis showing that its radioligand therapy Pluvicto is efficacious as the 2nd line treatment in metastatic castration- resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) - which is currently only approved for the 3rd line intervention (i.e. when all other treatment options are exhausted) - bodes well for the size of the addressable market (+12,000 patients; +30%). To recap, Pluvicto is a Lu- 177-based radioligand therapy, which is administered after a positive Ga-68 or F-18- based scan. Hence, a wider application of the therapy leads to higher demand for the related therapeutic (Lu-177)and imaging (Ga-68,F-18)isotopes.
According to Lantheus, the market for prostate cancer PET imaging in the US currently amounts to c. 250,000 scans p.a. or $ 1.1bn with an additional potential of 100,000 scan ($ 0.4bn) driven by TAM expansion (e.g. Pluvicto going into 2nd and 1st line of mCRPC). As the first mover, PYLARIFY (F-18imaging) is seen to exceed 100,000 scans in 2022E. As a fast-follower,Illuccix (Ga-68imaging launched in Q2 '22) is seen to reach c. 20,000+ scans (eHAIB) in 2022E and continue growing in 2023E, benefiting the demand for Ga-68 generators.
Following a temporary production halt in Q2, Lu-177-basedPluvicto is off to a good start with $ 80m sales and continuously strong momentum. The expected drug master file (DMF) submission in late Dec/early Jan should make EUZ one of the most reliable suppliers of Lu-177. An important differentiating factor is its greater control over the supply chain - with an "in-house" production of enriched Yt-176 ("raw material") - ensuring superior reliability of supply and potential cost advantage.
That said, trading at c. € 1bn EV, where at least € 500m can be explained by the "steady state" business and € 200m+ by clinical assets, the long-termgrowth opportunity in the radiopharma is strongly underappreciated. BUY with a PT of € 120 (DCF).
Y/E 31.12 (EUR m) | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Sales | 168.7 | 178.5 | 176.1 | 180.4 | 224.5 | 238.5 | 263.5 |
Sales growth | 22 % | 6 % | -1 % | 2 % | 24 % | 6 % | 10 % |
EBITDA | 32.0 | 43.1 | 44.8 | 57.0 | 60.9 | 63.8 | 73.7 |
EBIT | 23.4 | 32.1 | 33.7 | 47.4 | 50.2 | 51.9 | 60.9 |
Net income | 16.1 | 22.0 | 22.9 | 34.4 | 31.3 | 35.5 | 41.8 |
Net debt | -54.1 | -78.9 | -88.6 | -86.6 | -71.8 | -70.2 | -74.2 |
Net gearing | -44.1 % | -57.1 % -59.9 % | -46.2 % -34.6 % | -30.4 % -28.4 % | |||
Net Debt/EBITDA | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
EPS pro forma | 3.12 | 1.06 | 1.04 | 1.67 | 1.51 | 1.71 | 2.02 |
CPS | 0.64 | 1.46 | 1.28 | 1.20 | 1.09 | 1.55 | 1.68 |
DPS | 1.20 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.56 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
Dividend yield | 2.9 % | 0.9 % | 0.8 % | 1.3 % | 1.2 % | 1.2 % | 1.2 % |
Gross profit margin | 44.1 % | 48.8 % | 49.1 % | 50.5 % | 50.8 % | 51.2 % | 52.2 % |
EBITDA margin | 18.9 % | 24.2 % | 25.4 % | 31.6 % | 27.1 % | 26.8 % | 28.0 % |
EBIT margin | 13.9 % | 18.0 % | 19.1 % | 26.3 % | 22.4 % | 21.7 % | 23.1 % |
ROCE | 17.6 % | 22.5 % | 22.9 % | 26.0 % | 18.9 % | 15.8 % | 17.1 % |
EV/sales | 1.1 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 10.1 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.7 |
EV/EBITDA | 5.5 | 13.0 | 16.7 | 32.0 | 16.0 | 15.3 | 13.2 |
EV/EBIT | 7.6 | 17.5 | 22.2 | 38.5 | 19.4 | 18.8 | 15.9 |
PER | 10.5 | 25.5 | 34.9 | 52.7 | 30.6 | 29.1 | 24.7 |
Adjusted FCF yield | 9.8 % | 4.2 % | 3.3 % | 2.0 % | 3.6 % | 3.9 % | 4.6 % |
Source: Company data, Hauck Aufhäuser Investment Banking Close price as of: 08.12.2022
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of the report
Source: Company data, Hauck Aufhäuser Investment Banking
High/low 52 weeks: | 97.70 / 30.66 | |||
Price/Book Ratio: | 4.9 | |||
Relative performance (SDAX): | ||||
3 months | 25.2 % | |||
6 months | 29.6 % | |||
12 months | -23.0 % | |||
Changes in estimates | ||||
Sales | EBIT | EPS | ||
2022 | old: | 224.5 | 50.2 | 1.51 |
∆ | - | - | - | |
2023 | old: | 238.5 | 51.9 | 1.71 |
∆ | - | - | - | |
2024 | old: | 263.5 | 60.9 | 2.02 |
∆ | - | - | - | |
Key share data: | ||||
Number of shares: (in m pcs) | 20.7 | |||
Authorised capital: (in € m) | 0.6 | |||
Book value per share: (in €) | 10.0 | |||
Ø trading volume: (12 months) | 20,453 |
Major shareholders: | |
Free float | 67.8 % |
Founders | 32.2 % |
Eckert & Ziegler AG | 0.1 % |
Company description:
A full-service provider for
radiopharmaceuticals and isotope technology for industrial applications
Eckert & Ziegler AG
Financials
Profit and loss (EUR m) | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Sales | 168.7 | 178.5 | 176.1 | 180.4 | 224.5 | 238.5 | 263.5 |
Sales growth | 21.7 % | 5.8 % | -1.3 % | 2.4 % | 24.4 % | 6.2 % | 10.5 % |
Cost of sales | 94.4 | 91.5 | 89.6 | 89.4 | 110.4 | 116.3 | 126.0 |
Gross profit | 74.3 | 87.0 | 86.5 | 91.1 | 114.1 | 122.2 | 137.5 |
Sales and marketing | 23.3 | 22.9 | 21.7 | 22.6 | 27.1 | 28.7 | 30.1 |
General and administration | 26.9 | 27.6 | 28.1 | 31.5 | 34.8 | 36.8 | 38.5 |
Research and development | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Other operating income | 3.5 | 2.8 | 5.8 | 17.7 | 6.6 | 2.6 | -0.4 |
Other operating expenses | 4.5 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 7.6 |
Unusual or infrequent items | 0.2 | -0.2 | -1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
EBITDA | 32.0 | 43.1 | 44.8 | 57.0 | 60.9 | 63.8 | 73.7 |
Depreciation | 8.6 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 12.8 |
EBITA | 23.4 | 32.1 | 33.7 | 47.4 | 50.2 | 51.9 | 60.9 |
Amortisation of goodwill | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Amortisation of intangible assets | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Impairment charges | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
EBIT (inc revaluation net) | 23.4 | 32.1 | 33.7 | 47.4 | 50.2 | 51.9 | 60.9 |
Interest income | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Interest expenses | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Other financial result | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Financial result | -0.5 | -0.8 | -0.9 | -1.1 | -2.1 | -1.2 | -1.2 |
Recurring pretax income from continuing operations | 22.9 | 31.2 | 32.7 | 46.4 | 48.1 | 50.7 | 59.7 |
Extraordinary income/loss | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Earnings before taxes | 22.9 | 31.2 | 32.7 | 46.4 | 48.1 | 50.7 | 59.7 |
Taxes | 6.0 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 11.7 | 16.8 | 15.2 | 17.9 |
Net income from continuing operations | 16.9 | 22.5 | 23.1 | 34.7 | 31.3 | 35.5 | 41.8 |
Result from discontinued operations (net of tax) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Net income | 16.9 | 22.5 | 23.1 | 34.7 | 31.3 | 35.5 | 41.8 |
Minority interest | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Net profit (reported) | 16.1 | 22.0 | 22.9 | 34.4 | 31.3 | 35.5 | 41.8 |
Average number of shares | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.6 | 20.6 | 20.7 | 20.7 | 20.7 |
EPS reported | 0.79 | 1.07 | 1.11 | 1.67 | 1.51 | 1.71 | 2.02 |
Profit and loss (common size) | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Sales | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
Cost of sales | 55.9 % | 51.2 % | 50.9 % | 49.5 % | 49.2 % | 48.8 % | 47.8 % |
Gross profit | 44.1 % | 48.8 % | 49.1 % | 50.5 % | 50.8 % | 51.2 % | 52.2 % |
Sales and marketing | 13.8 % | 12.8 % | 12.3 % | 12.5 % | 12.1 % | 12.0 % | 11.4 % |
General and administration | 15.9 % | 15.4 % | 15.9 % | 17.4 % | 15.5 % | 15.4 % | 14.6 % |
Research and development | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
Other operating income | 2.1 % | 1.6 % | 3.3 % | 9.8 % | 2.9 % | 1.1 % | neg. |
Other operating expenses | 2.6 % | 4.0 % | 4.1 % | 4.0 % | 3.8 % | 3.1 % | 2.9 % |
Unusual or infrequent items | 0.1 % | neg. | neg. | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
EBITDA | 18.9 % | 24.2 % | 25.4 % | 31.6 % | 27.1 % | 26.8 % | 28.0 % |
Depreciation | 5.1 % | 6.2 % | 6.3 % | 5.3 % | 4.7 % | 5.0 % | 4.9 % |
EBITA | 13.9 % | 18.0 % | 19.1 % | 26.3 % | 22.4 % | 21.7 % | 23.1 % |
Amortisation of goodwill | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
Amortisation of intangible assets | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
Impairment charges | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
EBIT (inc revaluation net) | 13.9 % | 18.0 % | 19.1 % | 26.3 % | 22.4 % | 21.7 % | 23.1 % |
Interest income | 0.1 % | 0.2 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
Interest expenses | 0.4 % | 0.6 % | 0.7 % | 0.7 % | 0.9 % | 0.5 % | 0.5 % |
Other financial result | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
Financial result | neg. | neg. | neg. | neg. | neg. | neg. | neg. |
Recurring pretax income from continuing operations | 13.6 % | 17.5 % | 18.6 % | 25.7 % | 21.4 % | 21.2 % | 22.7 % |
Extraordinary income/loss | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
Earnings before taxes | 13.6 % | 17.5 % | 18.6 % | 25.7 % | 21.4 % | 21.2 % | 22.7 % |
Tax rate | 26.2 % | 28.1 % | 29.4 % | 25.3 % | 35.0 % | 30.0 % | 30.0 % |
Net income from continuing operations | 10.0 % | 12.6 % | 13.1 % | 19.2 % | 13.9 % | 14.9 % | 15.9 % |
Result from discontinued operations (net of tax) | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
Net income | 10.0 % | 12.6 % | 13.1 % | 19.2 % | 13.9 % | 14.9 % | 15.9 % |
Minority interest | 0.4 % | 0.3 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
Net profit (reported) | 9.6 % | 12.3 % | 13.0 % | 19.1 % | 13.9 % | 14.9 % | 15.9 % |
Source: Company data, Hauck Aufhäuser Investment Banking
2 | Hauck Aufhäuser Investment Banking |
Eckert & Ziegler AG
Balance sheet (EUR m) | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Intangible assets | 52.5 | 51.9 | 41.4 | 61.4 | 76.1 | 96.1 | 116.1 |
Property, plant and equipment | 36.9 | 40.0 | 38.0 | 61.9 | 71.9 | 74.0 | 73.1 |
Financial assets | 3.5 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 16.4 |
FIXED ASSETS | 93.0 | 97.1 | 87.4 | 139.7 | 164.4 | 186.5 | 205.6 |
Inventories | 28.8 | 31.2 | 33.6 | 37.4 | 43.2 | 45.9 | 50.7 |
Accounts receivable | 28.3 | 29.5 | 28.2 | 31.9 | 36.9 | 39.2 | 43.3 |
Other current assets | 14.9 | 26.6 | 42.3 | 34.0 | 34.0 | 34.0 | 34.0 |
Liquid assets | 54.2 | 78.9 | 88.6 | 93.7 | 78.9 | 77.3 | 81.3 |
Deferred taxes | 9.9 | 10.9 | 11.9 | 11.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Deferred charges and prepaid expenses | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
CURRENT ASSETS | 136.1 | 177.1 | 204.6 | 208.1 | 193.0 | 196.4 | 209.3 |
TOTAL ASSETS | 229.1 | 274.2 | 292.0 | 347.7 | 357.4 | 382.9 | 414.9 |
SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 122.6 | 138.2 | 147.8 | 187.4 | 207.7 | 231.1 | 260.7 |
MINORITY INTEREST | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Long-term debt | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Provisions for pensions and similar obligations | 11.4 | 13.5 | 14.4 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
Other provisions | 55.1 | 66.4 | 70.5 | 92.5 | 88.1 | 89.8 | 91.6 |
Non-current liabilities | 66.5 | 79.9 | 84.9 | 105.5 | 101.1 | 102.9 | 104.7 |
short-term liabilities to banks | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 |
Accounts payable | 6.5 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 7.6 |
Advance payments received on orders | 4.1 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 |
Other liabilities (incl. from lease and rental contracts) | 17.4 | 35.6 | 42.3 | 23.1 | 23.1 | 23.1 | 23.1 |
Deferred taxes | 7.1 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Deferred income | 3.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Current liabilities | 38.8 | 54.9 | 58.2 | 49.7 | 48.5 | 48.9 | 49.4 |
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 229.1 | 274.2 | 292.0 | 347.7 | 357.4 | 382.9 | 414.9 |
Balance sheet (common size) | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Intangible assets | 22.9 % | 18.9 % | 14.2 % | 17.7 % | 21.3 % | 25.1 % | 28.0 % |
Property, plant and equipment | 16.1 % | 14.6 % | 13.0 % | 17.8 % | 20.1 % | 19.3 % | 17.6 % |
Financial assets | 1.5 % | 1.9 % | 2.7 % | 4.7 % | 4.6 % | 4.3 % | 3.9 % |
FIXED ASSETS | 40.6 % | 35.4 % | 29.9 % | 40.2 % | 46.0 % | 48.7 % | 49.6 % |
Inventories | 12.6 % | 11.4 % | 11.5 % | 10.7 % | 12.1 % | 12.0 % | 12.2 % |
Accounts receivable | 12.4 % | 10.8 % | 9.7 % | 9.2 % | 10.3 % | 10.2 % | 10.4 % |
Other current assets | 6.5 % | 9.7 % | 14.5 % | 9.8 % | 9.5 % | 8.9 % | 8.2 % |
Liquid assets | 23.7 % | 28.8 % | 30.3 % | 26.9 % | 22.1 % | 20.2 % | 19.6 % |
Deferred taxes | 4.3 % | 4.0 % | 4.1 % | 3.2 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
Deferred charges and prepaid expenses | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
CURRENT ASSETS | 59.4 % | 64.6 % | 70.1 % | 59.8 % | 54.0 % | 51.3 % | 50.4 % |
TOTAL ASSETS | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 53.5 % | 50.4 % | 50.6 % | 53.9 % | 58.1 % | 60.4 % | 62.8 % |
MINORITY INTEREST | 0.5 % | 0.5 % | 0.4 % | 1.5 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
Long-term debt | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
Provisions for pensions and similar obligations | 5.0 % | 4.9 % | 4.9 % | 3.8 % | 3.6 % | 3.4 % | 3.1 % |
Other provisions | 24.0 % | 24.2 % | 24.1 % | 26.6 % | 24.6 % | 23.5 % | 22.1 % |
Non-current liabilities | 29.0 % | 29.1 % | 29.1 % | 30.4 % | 28.3 % | 26.9 % | 25.2 % |
short-term liabilities to banks | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 2.0 % | 2.0 % | 1.8 % | 1.7 % |
Accounts payable | 2.8 % | 1.6 % | 1.7 % | 1.6 % | 1.9 % | 1.8 % | 1.8 % |
Advance payments received on orders | 1.8 % | 4.4 % | 3.0 % | 3.3 % | 3.3 % | 3.0 % | 2.8 % |
Other liabilities (incl. from lease and rental contracts) | 7.6 % | 13.0 % | 14.5 % | 6.7 % | 6.5 % | 6.0 % | 5.6 % |
Deferred taxes | 3.1 % | 1.0 % | 0.8 % | 0.6 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
Deferred income | 1.6 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
Current liabilities | 16.9 % | 20.0 % | 19.9 % | 14.3 % | 13.6 % | 12.8 % | 11.9 % |
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
Source: Company data, Hauck Aufhäuser Investment Banking
3 | Hauck Aufhäuser Investment Banking |
Eckert & Ziegler AG
Cash flow statement (EUR m) | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Net profit/loss | 16.9 | 22.5 | 23.1 | 34.7 | 31.3 | 35.5 | 41.8 |
Depreciation of fixed assets (incl. leases) | 8.6 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 12.8 |
Amortisation of goodwill | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Amortisation of intangible assets | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Others | 2.8 | 10.6 | 4.3 | -1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Cash flow from operations before changes in w/c | 28.2 | 44.1 | 38.5 | 43.1 | 41.9 | 47.4 | 54.6 |
Increase/decrease in inventory | 0.7 | -2.2 | -2.4 | -6.0 | -5.8 | -2.7 | -4.8 |
Increase/decrease in accounts receivable | -4.0 | -1.2 | 0.1 | -3.9 | -5.0 | -2.3 | -4.1 |
Increase/decrease in accounts payable | 2.0 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
Increase/decrease in other working capital positions | -5.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Increase/decrease in working capital | -7.0 | -3.7 | -1.7 | -9.3 | -9.8 | -4.6 | -8.3 |
Cash flow from operating activities | 21.2 | 40.4 | 36.8 | 33.9 | 32.2 | 42.8 | 46.3 |
CAPEX | 6.1 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 28.9 | 35.4 | 34.0 | 32.0 |
Payments for acquisitions | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 8.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Financial investments | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Income from asset disposals | -2.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 13.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Cash flow from investing activities | -10.7 | -5.7 | -13.3 | -23.6 | -35.4 | -34.0 | -32.0 |
Cash flow before financing | 10.5 | 34.7 | 23.4 | 10.3 | -3.3 | 8.8 | 14.3 |
Increase/decrease in debt position | -1.7 | -2.7 | -3.0 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Purchase of own shares | 8.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Capital measures | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Dividends paid | 4.1 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 11.5 | 10.3 | 10.3 |
Others | -0.2 | -1.7 | -1.2 | -3.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Effects of exchange rate changes on cash | 0.6 | 0.5 | -1.9 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Cash flow from financing activities | -14.6 | -10.5 | -13.0 | -6.1 | -11.5 | -10.3 | -10.3 |
Increase/decrease in liquid assets | -3.5 | 24.7 | 8.6 | 6.2 | -14.7 | -1.6 | 3.9 |
Liquid assets at end of period | 54.2 | 78.9 | 87.4 | 93.6 | 78.9 | 77.3 | 81.3 |
Source: Company data, Hauck Aufhäuser Investment Banking
Regional split (EUR m) | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Domestic | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
yoy change | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Rest of Europe | 96.8 | 110.4 | 125.9 | 143.5 | 163.6 | 186.5 | 212.6 |
yoy change | 14.0 % | 14.0 % | 14.0 % | 14.0 % | 14.0 % | 14.0 % | 14.0 % |
NAFTA | 60.9 | 70.1 | 80.6 | 92.7 | 106.6 | 122.5 | 140.9 |
yoy change | 15.0 % | 15.0 % | 15.0 % | 15.0 % | 15.0 % | 15.0 % | 15.0 % |
Asia Pacific | 17.9 | 20.2 | 22.9 | 25.8 | 29.2 | 33.0 | 37.3 |
yoy change | 13.0 % | 13.0 % | 13.0 % | 13.0 % | 13.0 % | 13.0 % | 13.0 % |
Rest of world | -7.0 | -22.2 | -53.1 | -81.5 | -74.8 | -103.5 | -127.3 |
yoy change | neg. | neg. | neg. | neg. | neg. | neg. | neg. |
TTL | 168.7 | 178.5 | 176.1 | 180.4 | 224.5 | 238.5 | 263.5 |
yoy change | 21.7 % | 5.8 % | -1.3 % | 2.4 % | 24.4 % | 6.2 % | 10.5 % |
Source: Company data, Hauck Aufhäuser Investment Banking
4 | Hauck Aufhäuser Investment Banking |
Eckert & Ziegler AG
Key ratios (EUR m) | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
P&L growth analysis | |||||||
Sales growth | 21.7 % | 5.8 % | -1.3 % | 2.4 % | 24.4 % | 6.2 % | 10.5 % |
EBITDA growth | 20.1 % | 35.0 % | 3.8 % | 27.4 % | 6.7 % | 4.9 % | 15.5 % |
EBIT growth | 30.1 % | 37.1 % | 5.1 % | 40.8 % | 5.8 % | 3.3 % | 17.4 % |
EPS growth | 9.7 % | 36.5 % | 3.6 % | 50.5 % | -9.7 % | 13.5 % | 17.8 % |
Efficiency | |||||||
Total operating costs / sales | 30.3 % | 30.7 % | 29.1 % | 24.2 % | 28.5 % | 29.5 % | 29.1 % |
Sales per employee | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
EBITDA per employee | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Balance sheet analysis | |||||||
Avg. working capital / sales | 25.8 % | 25.4 % | 26.2 % | 27.8 % | 25.3 % | 26.9 % | 26.8 % |
Inventory turnover (sales/inventory) | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
Trade debtors in days of sales | 61.2 | 60.3 | 58.4 | 64.5 | 60.0 | 60.0 | 60.0 |
A/P turnover [(A/P*365)/sales] | 25.1 | 17.9 | 20.4 | 22.8 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 |
Cash conversion cycle (days) | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Cash flow analysis | |||||||
Free cash flow | 15.1 | 33.2 | 27.9 | 5.0 | -3.3 | 8.8 | 14.3 |
Free cash flow/sales | 8.9 % | 18.6 % | 15.8 % | 2.8 % | -1.5 % | 3.7 % | 5.4 % |
FCF / net profit | 93.5 % | 150.7 % | 121.8 % | 14.5 % | neg. | 24.8 % | 34.2 % |
Capex / depn | 71.4 % | 65.5 % | 128.8 % | 300.7 % | 332.3 % | 284.4 % | 249.4 % |
Capex / maintenance capex | 75.2 % | 68.9 % | 84.6 % | 316.6 % | 216.0 % | 130.1 % | 103.9 % |
Capex / sales | 3.6 % | 4.1 % | 8.1 % | 16.0 % | 15.8 % | 14.3 % | 12.1 % |
Security | |||||||
Net debt | -54.1 | -78.9 | -88.6 | -86.6 | -71.8 | -70.2 | -74.2 |
Net Debt/EBITDA | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Net debt / equity | neg. | neg. | neg. | neg. | neg. | neg. | neg. |
Interest cover | 34.8 | 29.3 | 28.2 | 39.7 | 23.9 | 43.2 | 50.8 |
Dividend payout ratio | 152.7 % | 33.0 % | 31.1 % | 33.3 % | 33.1 % | 29.2 % | 24.8 % |
Asset utilisation | |||||||
Capital employed turnover | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
Operating assets turnover | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
Plant turnover | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.6 |
Inventory turnover (sales/inventory) | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
Returns | |||||||
ROCE | 17.6 % | 22.5 % | 22.9 % | 26.0 % | 18.9 % | 15.8 % | 17.1 % |
ROE | 13.2 % | 15.9 % | 15.5 % | 18.4 % | 15.0 % | 15.3 % | 16.0 % |
Other | |||||||
Interest paid / avg. debt | 73.9 % | 1809.9 % | 5819.5 % | 33.7 % | 29.7 % | 17.0 % | 17.0 % |
No. employees (average) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Number of shares | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.6 | 20.6 | 20.7 | 20.7 | 20.7 |
DPS | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
EPS reported | 0.79 | 1.07 | 1.11 | 1.67 | 1.51 | 1.71 | 2.02 |
Valuation ratios | |||||||
P/BV | 6.9 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 |
EV/sales | 1.1 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.0 |
EV/EBITDA | 5.5 | 13.0 | 16.7 | 32.0 | 13.1 | 12.5 | 10.8 |
EV/EBITA | 7.6 | 17.5 | 22.2 | 38.5 | 15.9 | 15.4 | 13.1 |
EV/EBIT | 7.6 | 17.5 | 22.2 | 38.5 | 15.9 | 15.4 | 13.1 |
EV/FCF | 11.7 | 16.9 | 26.8 | 364.9 | -244.3 | 91.0 | 55.6 |
Adjusted FCF yield | 9.8 % | 4.2 % | 3.3 % | 2.0 % | 4.4 % | 4.8 % | 5.7 % |
Dividend yield | 2.9 % | 0.9 % | 0.8 % | 1.3 % | 1.2 % | 1.2 % | 1.2 % |
Source: Company data, Hauck Aufhäuser Investment Banking
5 | Hauck Aufhäuser Investment Banking |
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Eckert & Ziegler AG published this content on 12 January 2023 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 12 January 2023 16:09:06 UTC.