Weekly market update: Time to take a breather?

After the sharp sell-off caused by the European elections, European indices recovered a little ground overall this week, benefiting from Wall Street's record highs and some cheap buying in certain sectors that were badly hit. However, political uncertainties are likely to remain a source of volatility in the run-up to the early French elections, with the risk of further major sell-offs, especially as US technology stocks showed some signs of weakness at the end of the week.

Weekly variations* TORONTO TSX 21554  -0.39% CAE INC. +7.31% EMPIRE COMPANY LIMIT... +6.54% BOMBARDIER INC. +6.30% WESTERN FOREST PRODU... -6.12% INTERFOR CORPORATION -9.70% AURORA CANNABIS INC. -10.67% DOW JONES INDUST... 39150.33  +1.45% NASDAQ 100 19700.43  +0.21% FTSE 100 8237.72  +1.12% GOLD 2321.10$  -0.34% WTI 80.56$  +3.41% EURO / US DOLLAR 1.07$  -0.08%

This week's gainers and losers

Gainers: Britvic plc +13.60%: The British soft drinks manufacturer this week rejected a £3.1 billion takeover offer from Danish brewer Carlsberg, believing it undervalued the company. Britvic had already turned down a first offer from the Dane earlier this month.  Bilibili inc +23.15%: The group is rewarded after announcing the successful launch of its latest game. Also note that JPMorgan has upgraded the stock from neutral to overweight, with a price target of $21. Penn Entertainment +13.97%: The casino gaming and horse racing specialist has been approached by rival Boyd Gaming about a potential merger, which could value it at $9 billion. However, no deal has been confirmed.  LA-Z Boy Inc +12.37%: The manufacturer of sofas and recliners published quarterly and annual results that were down, but nevertheless better than analysts' expectations. It also unveiled an encouraging outlook for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, ahead of forecasts.  Intra-cellular therapies +13.00%: Intra-cellular therapies rebounds after announcing positive preliminary results from the 502 study evaluating lumateperone 42 mg as an adjunct to antidepressants for the treatment of major depressive disorder. Needham & Co. is positive and recommends the stock as a Buy.  Games Workshop +12.98%: Despite the economic situation, the British retailer and manufacturer of Warhammer games and miniatures is confident. For fiscal year 2024, it anticipates an increase in sales of over 10% and pre-tax profits of around 17%. The company closed its financial year on June 2 and is due to publish its results at the end of July.  Draftkings +7.92%: Despite threats to the online gaming and betting sector, with potential tax increases in several US states, the specialist enjoys a bright outlook. It believes that higher taxes, and therefore tax contributions from the sector, could encourage other states to legalize online sports betting and thus expand its market. The stock is also benefiting from a favorable court ruling in Florida, which denied a Native American tribe a monopoly on gambling, and has gained 22% since January 1.  DELL +7.47% & Super Micro Computer +1.67% : The two American IT groups will supply the servers that will help xAI, Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company, to develop a supercomputer. Super Micro Computer also announced the launch of three new liquid-cooled data center manufacturing plants in the USA to meet the needs of AI.  Palantir Technologies +1.15%: Two new partnerships for the software developer. It has been named exclusive provider of software data management services to Starlab Space, the company that is designing and will operate the Starlab commercial space station. Its artificial intelligence technologies will support Starlab's operations and systems. The Group also announces that it will provide the data infrastructure for the core operations of the ARPA-H health agency.  Losers: Enphase energy -14.40%: The solar equipment manufacturer is hit by negative opinions from a number of analysts, including JPMorgan, which reduced its price target on the stock from $128 to $124, and TD Cowen, which cut its target from $145 to $130. Economic and political uncertainty is also weighing on the stock.  Gamestop -16.62%: The US video game retailer, darling of Wallstreetbets, fell after CEO Ryan Cohen told investors at the AGM that the group would close an unspecified number of stores to reduce operating expenses. Investors deplored the lack of information provided by management.  BioNTech -8.08%: Hard blow for the biotech company. The FDA, the US Food and Drug Administration, has partially suspended the clinical trial of an experimental antibody-drug conjugate for early-stage lung and breast cancer, due to safety concerns. The Group and its partner MediLink Therapeutics will have to address these risks in order to continue patient recruitment.

Commodities

Energy: Oil continues to rebound this week with a weekly gain of around 3.60%. The skies are clearing for crude prices: lower US inventories, a rebound in fuel demand and hopes of Fed monetary policy easing - a combo that is supporting oil prices. At the same time, the risk premium associated with geopolitical friction is back in the spotlight. These include the growing tensions between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah. On the price front, Brent crude is trading higher at around USD 85.5, while WTI is trading at around USD 81. Metals: In contrast to oil, metals are still under the weather. The compartment cannot rely on its main catalyst, Chinese demand, which is moving in a seesaw pattern. The latest Chinese economic data on the country's manufacturing sector did not provide any additional visibility, as industrial production did rise by 5.6% last month, but this was well below the consensus forecast of +6.2%.  A tonne of copper is trading at USD 9858 in London (cash price). In precious metals, the ounce of gold is slowly but surely rising to USD 2366. Agricultural products: Wheat took a hard blow, plunging to its annual low on the back of improved crop prospects in the northern hemisphere. A bushel of wheat is trading at around 587 cents (due September 2024), compared with 700 cents at the start of the month.

Macroeconomics

Atmosphere: Multiple trajectories. Make no mistake, the recent fall in interest rates is not necessarily synonymous with future monetary easing for the reasons we would like to believe. While the Fed has every intention of returning to a more accommodative stance, it has to be said that some of its peers are also struggling to find encouraging evidence in the inflation figures, particularly for services, to enable them to take the plunge. Thus, the Australian, Norwegian and British central banks prefer to adopt a wait-and-see stance, while the ECB, after cutting rates by a quarter-point at the beginning of the month, plans to take its time before moving forward. Only the Swiss National Bank has clearly pivoted, lowering its key rates for the second time in a row, notably to calm the ardor of its currency which, as a safe haven, is benefiting from the uncertain political climate currently prevailing in Europe. Even the stock market's star performer, AI, is showing signs of running out of steam. Quite symbolic. Crypto: Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen for the second week running, dropping nearly 9% over the past 14 days. Since Monday, the crypto-asset has fallen by 4.5% and is now trading around $63,700. Meanwhile, ether (ETH) is also down 3.8%, despite relatively good regulatory news. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has dropped its investigation into Consensys, one of the sector's leading companies, which manages one of the most popular unhosted wallets: Metamask. For some specialists, this could mean that ether will be classified as a commodity, like bitcoin, rather than as a "financial security", which changes the regulatory situation and the procedures to be implemented by companies. Despite this "good news" on paper, ether is down slightly less than bitcoin this week, but is still down for the fourth week running.

Time to take a breather? If macroeconomic statistics are anything to go by, they would point to a negative trend: for the past few weeks, economists' expectations have almost invariably been over-optimistic, particularly in the USA. Investors aren't necessarily complaining, because this reinforces the scenario of a rate-cutting cycle on the part of Western central banks. In the United States, a number of indicators (confidence, employment, orders, income, etc.) will enable us to refine our analysis until the publication of May's PCE inflation figures on Friday. On the corporate front, a handful of offbeat companies publish their results this week: Prosus, Fedex, Micron and Nike. Have a good weekend.

Things to read this week

A reminder of the fundamentals The Financial Times' critique of Salesforce 's business model - and more generally of the American tech sector - published in its highly caustic Unhedged... Read more Averaging down: Is it a good idea? When the price of a share falls sharply, it can be tempting to buy it back. But is downward averaging really a good idea? Only in certain cases, because more... Read more Boeing is looking for a new pilot The aircraft manufacturer, mired in quality problems and repeated scandals, is looking for a new CEO to lead its transformation and restore its reputation. A... Read more

*The weekly movements of indexes and stocks displayed on the dashboard are related to the period ranging from the open on Monday to the sending time of this newsletter on Friday. The weekly movements of commodities, precious metals and currencies displayed on the dashboard are related to a 7-day rolling period from Friday to Friday, until the sending time of this newsletter. These assets continue to quote on weekends.