By Joshua Kirby
The U.S. jobs market stopped cooling in December, inching slightly higher according to a trends index.
The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index increased to 113.15 from a downwardly revised 112.48 in November, the private-research group said Monday. It ends the previous two months' decline in the market, though the index remains low compared with the peaks reached in spring of 2022.
December's uptick suggests employment will continue to rise in the first months of 2024, said Selcuk Eren, senior economist at the conference board.
"The index has been on a gradual decline ... yet it remains notably above prepandemic levels," Eren said. "This suggests continued job additions in early 2024, albeit at a decelerated pace."
A short, shallow recession later in the year would likely entail job losses in the second half, though these would not be sustained or severe, he said.
As in previous months, most jobs were added in services and public-sector fields like healthcare, government and hospitality, with other sectors seeing slight losses.
"It is unlikely that gains in these sectors alone can keep payroll positive going forward," Eren cautioned. Other indicators point to a softening labor market, he said.
The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment that aggregates eight indicators. When the index increases, employment is likely to increase as well, while turning points in the index suggest a change in the number of jobs is likely to occur in the short term.
Four of the eight indicators increased in December, powering the overall rise. These comprised the proportion of survey respondents reporting that jobs were hard to find, initial claims for unemployment insurance, real manufacturing and job openings.
Write to Joshua Kirby at joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
01-08-24 1037ET
