Talking Points
- Do or die for the euro
- USD/CAD fails at key symmetry level
- USD/SEK challenging key long-term retracement level
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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD fell to its lowest level in almost nine months yesterday before rebounding just above the measured move of the May/June decline
- Our near-term trend bias is lower in the euro while under 1.3450
- The 1.3315/1.3300 area is the next major pivot zone
- An important cycle turn window is seen this week
- A move over 1.3450 would turn us positive on the euro
EUR/USD Strategy: Like only a minimal short position while below 1.3450. Will look to stop and reverse on a move through 1.3450.
Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
EUR/USD | *1.3300 | 1.3330 | 1.3380 | 1.3400 | *1.3450 |
Price & Time Analysis: USD/CAD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/CAD traded at its highs level in over three months yesterday before encountering resistance near the 261.8% projection of the early July advance in the 1.0990 area
- Our near-term trend bias is higher in Funds while over 1.0875
- A move through 1.0990 is needed to set up a new leg higher
- A cycle turn window is eyed next week
- A move under 1.0875 would turn us negative on the exchange rate
USD/CAD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1.0875.
Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
USD/CAD | 1.0845 | *1.0875 | 1.0925 | 1.0950 | *1.0990 |
Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/NZD
We are looking for a corrective phase in the USD in August pretty much across the board, but especially so against the European currencies. Several cyclical methodologies point to this week as a likely turning point. The ECB meeting today looks like an obvious catalyst as they have been over the past few months. While we will obviously be watching the euro intently we will also be keeping a close eye on SEK. In the past USD/SEK has often acted as a leader for broader USD movements, but more important in this case it is up against a key retracement level in the form of the 61.8% retracement of the 2012/2013 range at 6.9265. If we are right about a USD correction cycle beginning then this is an ideal level from where it should commence. A failure near here followed be a close under 6.8700 would confirm at least an interim high is in place. A daily close over 6.9265 would put our negative USD view in serious jeopardy.
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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
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