Platts : Pre-Report Survey of Analysts’ EIA/API Estimates Suggests a 400,000-Barrel Draw in U.S. Crude Oil Stocks

Geoffrey Craig, Platts Oil Futures Editor
New York - January 12, 2015

Platts Survey of Analysts
Crude oil stocks down 400,000 barrels
Gasoline stocks up 2.7 million barrels
Distillate stocks up 1.9 million barrels
Refinery utilization, or run rate, unchanged at 93.9%

U.S. commercial crude oil stocks are expected to have decreased 400,000 barrels during the week ended January 9, a Platts analysis and survey of oil analysts showed Monday.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly stocks data at 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT) Tuesday; the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly data at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT) Wednesday.

The EIA five-year average shows inventories declining 2.1 million barrels for the reporting week.

U.S. crude oil stocks are at healthy levels compared with recent historical standards. At 382 million barrels on January 2, crude oil stocks were 11.4% above the EIA five-year average (2009-2013) for the same reporting period.

The steep drop in oil prices is raising the possibility that some oil companies may try to accumulate crude oil to take advantage of higher prices for longer-dated futures contracts.
Stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, for example, rose 1.3 million barrels to 32 million barrels the week ended January 2. Cushing stocks have increased five weeks in a row. And the terminal has plenty of room left for additional storage. The most recent data shows current levels equaling approximately 38% of total capacity.

Analysts expect the U.S. refinery utilization rate to be unchanged at 93.9%. For the same reporting period one year earlier, refineries operated at 90% of operable capacity, EIA data showed.

In refinery news, BP shut one of three crude oil distillate units at its 413,000 barrels per day (b/d) Whiting, Indiana, refinery after cold weather caused an unplanned outage the week ended January 9.

GASOLINE STOCKS EXPECTED TO RISE

High refinery rates have translated into a big accumulation in refined products stocks. Gasoline and distillate stocks rose a combined 19 million barrels the week ended January 2.

U.S. gasoline stocks are expected to have risen 2.7 million barrels the week ended January 9, according to the analysts surveyed. The EIA five-year average shows inventories building 4.1 million barrels in the comparable reporting week.

Stocks on the U.S. Atlantic Coast -- home to the New York Harbor-delivered New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) RBOB futures contract -- were at a 10.2% surplus to the EIA five-year average the week ended January 2.

A similar rise has also been underway in the U.S. Midwest and U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC), underscoring how demand has proved insufficient to absorb the extra gasoline supplies.

U.S. distillate stocks are expected to have increased 1.9 million barrels over the latest reporting week. EIA five-year average shows U.S. distillate stocks rising 1 million barrels the week ended January 9.

U.S. distillate exports from the USGC to Europe totaled 440,000 metric tonnes (mt) the week ended January 9, down from 490,000 mt the week prior, according to Platts cFlow ship-tracking software.

Exports provide an additional outlet for supplies, helping alleviate upward pressure on stocks.

Refinery news that could impact gasoline and distillate production the week ended January 9 included the shutdown of the Phillips 66-operated 306,000 b/d joint venture Wood River refinery in Illinois, which underwent maintenance for an undisclosed duration.

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