Wednesday's bond markets are in a state of complete stagnation: this is quite logical - and classic - in the U.S. on the eve of the 4-day Thanksgiving 'bridge'.
T-Bonds are completely frozen - and unchanged - at 4.418% (after a brief foray to 4.37%).
Europe is also flat, with both OATs and Bunds stagnating at 3.115% and 2.555%.... and -1Pt on Italian BTPs at 4.31%.

None of the numerous US figures published today caused the slightest stir: no impact on T-Bonds 'on average' (the '2-yr' posted +3Pts at 4.915%, the '30-yr' erased -3Pts at 4.55%).

The Labor Department unveiled a -24.000 (to 209,000) in new US jobless claims in the week to November 13, which may be explained by strong hiring ahead of the Thanksgiving sales.

The four-week moving average - more representative of the underlying trend - stood at 220,000 last week, an anecdotal fall of 750 on the previous week's revised average.

The big surprise of the day - in raw data - came from the figure for durable goods orders, which fell by 5.4% in October (a record drop since the Covid period).

But excluding aircraft orders, the figure was stable compared with September... so it's a bit of a trompe l'oeil drop, hence the lacklustre reaction from Wall Street (+0.25%) and the bond markets.
The yield on Treasuries returned to equilibrium at 4.418% after a brief foray below 4.40%, a 2-month low.

U.S. consumer confidence deteriorated in November, but less sharply than expected, according to the final University of Michigan index published on Wednesday.

The final UMich index came in at 61.3, down from 63.8 in October, while the first estimate was 60.4 and economists were expecting around 61 (the 4th consecutive month of decline).
The component measuring consumer sentiment on current conditions deteriorated to 68.3 from 70.6 last month, while the expectations component fell by -2.5pts to 56.8 from 59.3 in October.

Inflation expectations have also risen again, with consumers estimating it at 4.5% this month, compared with +4.2% in October, a seven-month high.

Bonds also failed to react to the -4% plunge in oil prices on the NYMEX (and in London, with Brent crude at $79) ahead of the release of US reserve statistics, but mainly due to the postponement of the Opec+ meeting scheduled for this weekend in Vienna to Thursday, November 30.


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