Inflation Monitor (New Base: 2015-16) - December, 2021

I

Inflation Monitor

December 2021

(Base Year: 2015-16)

State Bank of Pakistan

Statistics & DWH Department

1. Inflation Monitor, December 2021

ISSN 1992-8327 (print)

ISSN 1992-8335 (online)

The analysis in this document is based on data

• Provided by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), for domestic inflation analysis
• Retrieved from Bloomberg, Trading Economics, IMF & World Bank websites for global inflation analysis

http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/inflation_Monitor

		State Bank of Pakistan
		III
Table of Contents
1.	Inflation in Brief.................................................................................................................................................................................................	1
2.	Heat-mapsof CPI inflation ...............................................................................................................................................................................	3
3.	Trends in Inflation .............................................................................................................................................................................................	7
4.	Movement in Price Indices (Moving Averages) ..............................................................................................................................................	8
5.	Movement in Price Indices (Month-on-Month)..............................................................................................................................................	9
6.	Trends in Consumer Price Indices and Inflation .........................................................................................................................................	11
7.	Weighted Contribution....................................................................................................................................................................................	14
8.	Inflation Diffusion Index .................................................................................................................................................................................	16
9.	Domestic Commodity Prices ...........................................................................................................................................................................	18
10.	Inflation in Global Context........................................................................................................................................................................	19
11.	Global Commodity Prices..........................................................................................................................................................................	20
12.	Seasonal Adjustment in CPI......................................................................................................................................................................	21
List of Tables................................................................................................................................................................................................................	26
		Table A1: National CPI Inflation by Groups (YoY and MoM in percent) .....................................................................................................	26
		Table A2: Urban CPI Inflation by Groups (YoY and MoM in percent).........................................................................................................	26
		Table A3: Rural CPI Inflation by Groups (YoY and MoM in percent)..........................................................................................................	27
		Table A4: Top Ten Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (YoY) - December 2021 ......................................................................................	28
		Table A5: Top Ten Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (MoM) in December 2021 ...................................................................................	29
		Table A6: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (YoY) in December 2021 ..........................................................	30
		Table A7: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (MoM) in December 2021 ........................................................	31
		Table A8: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Urban CPI Food Inflation in December 2021 .................................................	32
		Table A9: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Urban CPI Non-Food Inflation in December 2021.........................................	33
		Table A10: Top Ten Contributors to Rural CPI Inflation (YoY) in December 2021....................................................................................	34
		Table A11: Top Ten Contributors to Rural CPI Inflation (MoM) in December 2021 ..................................................................................	35
		Table A12: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Rural CPI Inflation (YoY) in December 2021 .........................................................	36
		Table A13: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Rural CPI (MoM) Inflation in December 2021 .......................................................	37
		Table A14: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Rural CPI Food Inflation in December 2021 ................................................	38
		Table A15: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Rural CPI Non-Food Inflation in December 2021........................................	39
		Table A16: Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - Selected Urban CPI Items: December 2021 .................................................................	40
		Table A17: Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - Selected Rural CPI Items: December 2021 ..................................................................	41
		Table A18: Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - WPI Items: December 2021............................................................................................	42
		Table A19: International Commodity Prices/Indices ........................................................................................................................................	43
		Table A20: National CPI Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted.......................................................................................................	44
		Table A21: Urban CPI Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted...........................................................................................................	45
		Table A22: Rural CPI Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted............................................................................................................	46
		Table A23: National CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors .....................................................................................................................	47
		Table A24: Urban CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors.........................................................................................................................	47
		Table A25: Rural CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors..........................................................................................................................	48
		Table A26: National CPI (Month-on-Month)Original & Seasonally Adjusted.............................................................................................	49
		Table A27: Urban CPI (Month-on-Month)Original & Seasonally Adjusted Series .....................................................................................	50
		Table A28: Rural CPI (Month-on-Month)Original & Seasonally Adjusted Series ......................................................................................	51
		Figure A1: National CPI Non-food Inflation (YoY, 12MMA, MoM in percent) ..................................................................................................	52
		Figure A2: Urban CPI Non-food Inflation (YoY, 12MMA, MoM in percent) ......................................................................................................	53

IV	Inflation Monitor, December 2021
	Figure A3: Rural CPI Non-food Inflation (YoY, 12MMA, MoM in percent) .......................................................................................................	54
	Figure A4: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Urban CPI Items (YoY) ................................................................................................	55
	Figure A5: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Rural CPI Items (YoY)..................................................................................................	56
	Figure A6: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Urban CPI Items (MoM) ...............................................................................................	57
	Figure A7: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Rural CPI Items (MoM) ................................................................................................	58
	Figure A8: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of WPI Commodities (YoY)..............................................................................................	59
	Technical Notes, Definitions and Methodologies .....................................................................................................................................................	60
	Technical Notes ......................................................................................................................................................................................................	60
	Methodology for Estimating Inflation Diffusion Index for Pakistan...............................................................................................................	62

State Bank of Pakistan V

Team

∙	Mazhar Hussain	Sr. Joint Director
		[e-mail]
∙ Syed Aamir Ali Bokhari	Joint Director
		[e-mail]
∙	Haider Ali	Deputy Director
		[e-mail]