Genscape : Falling Temperatures Impacting Natural Gas Production Levels – Genscape’s Winter 2017 Freeze-Off Estimate

The first winter storm of 2017 crossed dozens of state boundaries and had significant impacts to Lower 48 natural gas production. Total freeze-off estimates peaked at ~2.224 Bcf/d on Saturday, January 7, 2017, as winter storm Helena traveled from the west to the south and the east. This brought as much as 10 inches of snow in southern Wyoming and up to four inches in Denver. Freeze-offs in the Rockies reached a high of ~1.005 Bcf/d on Friday, January 6, with ~400 mmcf/d frozen-off in the Green River region of Wyoming and ~235 mmcf/d frozen-off in North Dakota. On Saturday, January 7, production outside of the Rockies dropped ~480 mmcf/d, and Texas shut-in production reached ~525 mmcf/d. The northeast saw a smaller average impact of ~150 mmcf/d in Pennsylvania and West Virginia. As the weather warmed, production was off ~850 mmcf/d in the Lower 48 on Tuesday, January 10. The total estimate for freeze-off volumes fell to ~0.575 Bcf/d on Wednesday, January 11.

Freeze-offs occur when temperatures fall and water vapor in the production gathering system freezes and hinders the flow of gas. Other production impacts may occur during cold weather events when roads are too icy for trucks to travel to and from the production site to unload oil tanks, thus shutting-in the well. However, production drops that are caused by cold weather can be difficult to determine, as most pipelines do not post notices for production freeze-offs. Some indications that production is shut-in are large downward day-over-day nomination revisions, as well as large drops in nominations from one day to the next.

Genscape's Daily Pipe Production data tracks daily pipeline nomination estimates, delivered each morning before 7 AM CST. As significant freeze-offs are detected, subscribers automatically receive daily estimates of frozen-off production by region, as well as historical values of freeze-offs back to 2013. To learn more about Genscape's Daily Production Forecast, or to receive daily nomination estimations and freeze-off updates, please click here.