Financials Ultrapar Participacoes S.A.

Equities

UGPA3

BRUGPAACNOR8

Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing

Market Closed - Sao Paulo Other stock markets 21:07:42 12/06/2024 BST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
21.83 ^BRL	-3.96%		-5.13%	-17.65%

06-10	Brazilian fuel prices to rise due to new tax credit rules, energy lobby says	RE
05-09	Transcript : Ultrapar Participações S.A., Q1 2024 Earnings Call, May 09, 2024

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	27,672	25,834	15,854	13,732	28,882	23,788	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	36,353	37,349	27,545	13,732	35,003	29,772	28,601	27,636
P/E ratio	74.5 x	29 x	18.6 x	7.69 x	11.9 x	11.3 x	10 x	9.02 x
Yield	1.73%	1.85%	2.54%	-	2.45%	3.46%	4.26%	4.98%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.31 x	0.32 x	0.13 x	0.09 x	0.23 x	0.18 x	0.18 x	0.18 x
EV / Revenue	0.41 x	0.46 x	0.23 x	0.09 x	0.28 x	0.23 x	0.22 x	0.21 x
EV / EBITDA	10.5 x	11.3 x	6.79 x	3.44 x	6.23 x	5.22 x	4.82 x	4.43 x
EV / FCF	14.1 x	17.2 x	20.9 x	17.2 x	13.7 x	10.8 x	14.3 x	11.5 x
FCF Yield	7.08%	5.82%	4.79%	5.81%	7.32%	9.24%	6.99%	8.71%
Price to Book	2.93 x	2.72 x	1.58 x	-	2.19 x	1.61 x	1.52 x	1.4 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	1,086,030	1,088,225	1,090,368	1,089,010	1,089,478	1,089,699	-	-
Reference price ²	25.48	23.74	14.54	12.61	26.51	21.83	21.83	21.83
Announcement Date	19/02/20	24/02/21	24/02/22	15/02/23	28/02/24	-	-	-

¹BRL in Million²BRL

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	89,298	81,241	118,799	146,902	126,049	132,042	131,189	134,343
EBITDA ¹	3,473	3,311	4,055	3,987	5,615	5,705	5,928	6,245
EBIT ¹	2,328	2,044	2,678	3,255	3,861	4,098	4,122	4,387
Operating Margin	2.61%	2.52%	2.25%	2.22%	3.06%	3.1%	3.14%	3.27%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	781.6	1,499	958.6	2,321	3,579	3,408	3,768	4,154
Net income ¹	373.5	893.4	850.5	1,801	2,440	2,130	2,394	2,675
Net margin	0.42%	1.1%	0.72%	1.23%	1.94%	1.61%	1.83%	1.99%
EPS ²	0.3422	0.8200	0.7800	1.639	2.230	1.928	2.175	2.421
Free Cash Flow ¹	2,575	2,172	1,320	797.9	2,563	2,750	2,000	2,408
FCF margin	2.88%	2.67%	1.11%	0.54%	2.03%	2.08%	1.52%	1.79%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	74.13%	65.61%	32.55%	20.01%	45.64%	48.2%	33.73%	38.56%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	689.29%	243.16%	155.21%	44.3%	105.03%	129.12%	83.52%	90.02%
Dividend per Share ²	0.4400	0.4400	0.3700	-	0.6500	0.7552	0.9308	1.087
Announcement Date	19/02/20	24/02/21	24/02/22	15/02/23	28/02/24	-	-	-

¹BRL in Million²BRL

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2
Net sales ¹	34,411	34,036	37,425	39,484	35,957	30,552	29,593	32,484	33,421	30,396	31,990	33,729	33,489	-	-
EBITDA ¹	1,144	1,225	1,119	838.4	750.1	1,023	964.2	2,001	1,666	1,306	1,427	1,530	1,555	-	-
EBIT ¹	780.9	772.8	714	449	568.2	754.1	684.9	1,569	1,186	1,028	993.5	1,120	1,117	-	-
Operating Margin	2.27%	2.27%	1.91%	1.14%	1.58%	2.47%	2.31%	4.83%	3.55%	3.38%	3.11%	3.32%	3.33%	-	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	417.3	455.1	579.7	109.7	1,177	366.2	297.9	1,278	1,637	664.6	787.3	946.2	959.3	-	-
Net income ¹	380.2	452.3	452.9	73.1	822.6	262.1	213.9	864.9	1,099	431.5	524.1	603	619.3	-	-
Net margin	1.1%	1.33%	1.21%	0.19%	2.29%	0.86%	0.72%	2.66%	3.29%	1.42%	1.64%	1.79%	1.85%	-	-
EPS ²	0.3600	0.4100	0.4200	0.0666	0.7476	0.2372	0.1937	0.7832	1.000	0.3881	0.4484	0.5403	0.5523	0.4800	0.5300
Dividend per Share ²	0.1700	-	-	0.3506	-	-	0.2500	-	0.4000	-	0.2107	0.1180	0.2614	0.3081	0.3081
Announcement Date	24/02/22	11/05/22	03/08/22	09/11/22	15/02/23	03/05/23	09/08/23	08/11/23	28/02/24	08/05/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹BRL in Million²BRL

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	8,681	11,515	11,691	-	6,121	5,984	4,813	3,848
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	2.499 x	3.478 x	2.883 x	-	1.09 x	1.049 x	0.8119 x	0.6162 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	2,575	2,172	1,320	798	2,563	2,750	2,000	2,408
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	3.95%	9.41%	8.68%	-	19.4%	15.3%	15.7%	16%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	1.21%	2.65%	2.26%	-	6.53%	4.86%	4.93%	5.39%
Assets ¹	30,844	33,726	37,633	-	37,347	43,834	48,574	49,663
Book Value Per Share ²	8.710	8.740	9.230	-	12.10	13.60	14.40	15.60
Cash Flow per Share ²	2.680	2.880	2.360	1.820	3.480	3.750	4.030	3.630
Capex ¹	1,020	966	1,266	1,207	1,287	2,549	1,913	1,926
Capex / Sales	1.14%	1.19%	1.07%	0.82%	1.02%	1.93%	1.46%	1.43%
Announcement Date	19/02/20	24/02/21	24/02/22	15/02/23	28/02/24	-	-	-

¹BRL in Million²BRL

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Ultrapar Participacoes S.A.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

B+

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

HOLD

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

21.83 BRL

Average target price

27.89 BRL

Spread / Average Target

+27.74%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Gasoline Stations

	1st Jan change	Capi.
ULTRAPAR PARTICIPACOES S.A.	-17.65%	4.58B
ALIMENTATION COUCHE-TARD INC.	+2.63%	55.95B
MURPHY USA INC.	+32.93%	9.82B
VIBRA ENERGIA S.A.	-8.08%	4.27B
ALDREES PETROLEUM AND TRANSPORT SERVICES COMPANY	-10.56%	3.22B
SAUDI AUTOMOTIVE SERVICES COMPANY	-10.50%	1.07B
ARKO CORP.	-24.36%	722M
NORTH-STAR INTERNATIONAL CO., LTD.	+18.74%	629M
NATIONAL PETROLEUM CO., LTD.	-5.12%	639M
HUNAN HESHUN PETROLEUM CO.,LTD.	-46.67%	325M

Gasoline Stations