Projected Income Statement: Swatch Group

Forecast Balance Sheet: Swatch Group

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 -2,556 -2,538 -1,986 -1,374 -1,193 -1,230 -1,232 -1,137
Change - 0.7% 21.75% 30.82% 13.17% -3.1% -0.16% 7.71%
Announcement Date 25/01/22 24/01/23 23/01/24 30/01/25 30/01/26 - - -
1CHF in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Swatch Group

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 295 387 785 549 451 419.6 420.5 432.9
Change - 31.19% 102.84% -30.06% -17.85% -6.96% 0.21% 2.95%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 1,003 337 -170 -216 56 526.8 502.4 248.7
Change - -66.4% -150.45% -27.06% 125.93% 840.62% -4.62% -50.5%
Announcement Date 25/01/22 24/01/23 23/01/24 30/01/25 30/01/26 - - -
1CHF in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Swatch Group

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 19.95% 20.87% 20.04% 10.69% 8.89% 12.07% 14.26% 15.73%
EBIT Margin (%) 13.96% 15.44% 15.1% 4.51% 2.15% 5.82% 8.07% 9.49%
EBT Margin (%) 13.82% 14.62% 14.6% 5.12% 2.52% 5.49% 7.52% 9.03%
Net margin (%) 10.46% 10.76% 11.02% 2.87% 0.05% 4.01% 5.47% 5.85%
FCF margin (%) 13.72% 4.49% -2.16% -3.21% 0.89% 8.18% 7.44% 3.53%
FCF / Net Income (%) 131.11% 41.76% -19.56% -111.92% 1,866.67% 203.98% 136.07% 60.23%

Profitability

        
ROA 5.76% 5.85% 6.18% 1.37% 0.02% 0.98% 1.58% 1.94%
ROE 6.82% 6.86% 7.19% 1.59% 0.03% 2.09% 3.08% 3.67%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) - - - - - - - -
Debt / Free cash flow - - - - - - - -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 4.03% 5.16% 9.95% 8.15% 7.18% 6.52% 6.23% 6.14%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 20.22% 24.73% 49.65% 76.25% 80.82% 54.03% 43.68% 39.03%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 29.41% 114.84% -461.76% -254.17% 805.36% 79.66% 83.7% 174.07%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 25.06 13.96 11.86 6.44 9.76 11.36 14 16.76
Change - -44.29% -15.04% -45.7% 51.55% 16.38% 23.23% 19.7%
Dividend per Share 1 5.5 6 6.5 4.5 4.5 4.582 5.07 5.516
Change - 9.09% 8.33% -30.77% 0% 1.81% 10.66% 8.79%
Book Value Per Share 1 224.1 232.6 236.4 236.4 224.5 223.1 225 228.6
Change - 3.76% 1.65% -0.01% -5.01% -0.61% 0.82% 1.62%
EPS 1 14.77 15.56 16.75 3.74 0.05 5.009 7.49 9.423
Change - 5.35% 7.65% -77.67% -98.66% 9,917.54% 49.53% 25.82%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 51,771 51,808 51,836 51,872 51,767 51,996 51,996 51,996
Announcement Date 25/01/22 24/01/23 23/01/24 30/01/25 30/01/26 - - -
1CHF
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 39.3x 26.3x
PBR 0.88x 0.88x
EV / Sales 1.39x 1.33x
Yield 2.33% 2.57%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
UNDERPERFORM
Number of Analysts
20
Last Close Price
197.00CHF
Average target price
168.14CHF
Spread / Average Target
-14.65%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise