Projected Income Statement: Petrobras

Forecast Balance Sheet: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 265,778 224,510 227,799 304,800 319,931 286,954 266,804 253,171
Change - -15.53% 1.46% 33.8% 4.96% -10.31% -7.02% -5.11%
Announcement Date 24/02/22 02/03/23 08/03/24 26/02/25 06/03/26 - - -
1BRL in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 34,134 49,656 62,297 85,442 103,071 91,645 93,960 94,933
Change - 45.47% 25.46% 37.15% 20.63% -11.09% 2.53% 1.03%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 168,992 205,754 159,925 136,180 87,257 123,736 102,263 95,563
Change - 21.75% -22.27% -14.85% -35.92% 41.81% -17.35% -6.55%
Announcement Date 24/02/22 02/03/23 08/03/24 26/02/25 06/03/26 - - -
1BRL in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 51.82% 53.1% 51.18% 50.19% 49.07% 51.78% 51.91% 52.09%
EBIT Margin (%) 37.89% 42.46% 38.21% 36.54% 32.09% 37.3% 34.94% 33.95%
EBT Margin (%) 33.48% 42.88% 34.56% 12.19% 30.04% 34.23% 30.78% 30.33%
Net margin (%) 23.56% 29.37% 24.3% 8.23% 22.01% 23.11% 21.02% 20.47%
FCF margin (%) 37.33% 32.09% 31.36% 25.8% 18.53% 21.82% 18.89% 18.21%
FCF / Net Income (%) 158.43% 109.25% 129.05% 313.25% 84.17% 94.45% 89.87% 88.95%

Profitability

        
ROA 10.88% 19.32% 12.29% 9.72% 8.97% 10.44% 8.91% 8.73%
ROE 30.66% 50.23% 33.54% 28.14% 29.04% 28.01% 20.69% 17.96%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 1.13x 0.66x 0.87x 1.15x 1.38x 0.98x 0.95x 0.93x
Debt / Free cash flow 1.57x 1.09x 1.42x 2.24x 3.67x 2.32x 2.61x 2.65x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 7.54% 7.74% 12.22% 16.18% 21.89% 16.16% 17.36% 18.09%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 14.55% 14.58% 23.87% 32.24% 44.6% 31.22% 33.44% 34.73%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 20.2% 24.13% 38.95% 62.74% 118.12% 74.07% 91.88% 99.34%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 15.57 19.58 16.56 15.82 14.77 16.08 15.5 16.25
Change - 25.74% -15.41% -4.5% -6.65% 8.87% -3.59% 4.84%
Dividend per Share 1 8.534 15.09 5.569 5.734 3.199 5.146 5.708 6.051
Change - 76.82% -63.09% 2.96% -44.21% 60.84% 10.93% 5.99%
Book Value Per Share 1 29.69 27.8 29.4 28.4 30.96 38.35 42.68 46.55
Change - -6.39% 5.77% -3.41% 9.01% 23.9% 11.29% 9.06%
EPS 1 8.18 14.44 9.57 2.84 8.026 12.07 8.909 8.632
Change - 76.53% -33.73% -70.32% 182.59% 50.39% -26.19% -3.1%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 13,044,201 13,044,201 13,015,466 12,888,733 12,888,733 12,888,733 12,888,733 12,888,733
Announcement Date 24/02/22 02/03/23 08/03/24 26/02/25 06/03/26 - - -
1BRL
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 3.25x 4.4x
PBR 1.02x 0.92x
EV / Sales 1.45x 1.49x
Yield 13.1% 14.6%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
BBB
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
13
Last Close Price
39.21BRL
Average target price
54.53BRL
Spread / Average Target
+39.08%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise