Projected Income Statement: Petrobras

Forecast Balance Sheet: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 265,778 224,510 227,799 304,800 319,931 286,685 268,308 246,765
Change - -15.53% 1.46% 33.8% 4.96% -10.39% -6.41% -8.03%
Announcement Date 24/02/22 02/03/23 08/03/24 26/02/25 06/03/26 - - -
1BRL in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 34,134 49,656 62,297 85,442 103,071 93,216 96,782 96,518
Change - 45.47% 25.46% 37.15% 20.63% -9.56% 3.83% -0.27%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 168,992 205,754 159,925 136,180 87,257 112,528 106,254 100,857
Change - 21.75% -22.27% -14.85% -35.92% 28.96% -5.58% -5.08%
Announcement Date 24/02/22 02/03/23 08/03/24 26/02/25 06/03/26 - - -
1BRL in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 51.82% 53.1% 51.18% 50.19% 49.07% 52.97% 52.16% 52.55%
EBIT Margin (%) 37.89% 42.46% 38.21% 36.54% 32.09% 38.52% 35.28% 34.7%
EBT Margin (%) 33.48% 42.88% 34.56% 12.19% 30.04% 36.86% 30.94% 30.75%
Net margin (%) 23.56% 29.37% 24.3% 8.23% 22.01% 25.2% 21.22% 20.95%
FCF margin (%) 37.33% 32.09% 31.36% 25.8% 18.53% 19.28% 19.33% 18.7%
FCF / Net Income (%) 158.43% 109.25% 129.05% 313.25% 84.17% 76.49% 91.09% 89.26%

Profitability

        
ROA 10.88% 19.32% 12.29% 9.72% 8.97% 11.57% 9.03% 8.49%
ROE 30.66% 50.23% 33.54% 28.14% 29.04% 31.48% 20.51% 18.12%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 1.13x 0.66x 0.87x 1.15x 1.38x 0.93x 0.94x 0.87x
Debt / Free cash flow 1.57x 1.09x 1.42x 2.24x 3.67x 2.55x 2.53x 2.45x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 7.54% 7.74% 12.22% 16.18% 21.89% 15.97% 17.61% 17.89%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 14.55% 14.58% 23.87% 32.24% 44.6% 30.15% 33.76% 34.05%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 20.2% 24.13% 38.95% 62.74% 118.12% 82.84% 91.09% 95.7%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 15.57 19.58 16.56 15.82 14.77 16.9 15.63 15.9
Change - 25.74% -15.41% -4.5% -6.65% 14.47% -7.54% 1.74%
Dividend per Share 1 8.534 15.09 5.569 5.734 3.199 3.565 5.375 5.533
Change - 76.82% -63.09% 2.96% -44.21% 11.41% 50.78% 2.95%
Book Value Per Share 1 29.69 27.8 29.4 28.4 30.96 39.28 43.71 47.9
Change - -6.39% 5.77% -3.41% 9.01% 26.9% 11.26% 9.59%
EPS 1 8.18 14.44 9.57 2.84 8.026 11.83 9.177 8.814
Change - 76.53% -33.73% -70.32% 182.59% 47.46% -22.46% -3.96%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 13,044,201 13,044,201 13,015,466 12,888,733 12,888,733 12,888,733 12,888,733 12,888,733
Announcement Date 24/02/22 02/03/23 08/03/24 26/02/25 06/03/26 - - -
1BRL
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 4.15x 5.35x
PBR 1.25x 1.12x
EV / Sales 1.65x 1.71x
Yield 7.26% 10.9%

EPS & Dividend



Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

 

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
13
Last Close Price
49.12BRL
Average target price
57.02BRL
Spread / Average Target
+16.09%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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