Projected Income Statement: Diageo plc

Forecast Balance Sheet: Diageo plc

Fiscal Period: June 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Net Debt 1 16,657 19,195 20,371 21,548 19,991 17,518 15,790 14,807
Change - 15.24% 6.13% 5.78% -7.23% -12.37% -9.86% -6.23%
Announcement Date 28/07/22 01/08/23 30/07/24 05/08/25 06/08/26 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Diageo plc

Fiscal Period: June 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
CAPEX 1 1,330 1,504 1,510 1,549 1,181 1,244 1,210 1,267
Change - 13.02% 0.42% 2.58% -23.76% 5.37% -2.75% 4.7%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 3,442 3,511 2,595 2,748 3,211 2,749 3,518 3,755
Change - 2% -26.08% 5.9% 16.85% -14.38% 27.98% 6.72%
Announcement Date 28/07/22 01/08/23 30/07/24 05/08/25 06/08/26 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Diageo plc

Fiscal Period: June 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 36.4% 35.76% 34.72% 32.82% 33.85% 32.97% 34.26% 35.42%
EBIT Margin (%) 31.04% 30.7% 29.33% 28.17% 28.93% 29.48% 30.29% 31.32%
EBT Margin (%) 28.39% 27.67% 26.94% 17.47% 13.05% 25.59% 28.35% 29.49%
Net margin (%) 21.03% 21.82% 19.09% 11.63% 8.84% 17.96% 20.44% 21.15%
FCF margin (%) 18.37% 16.1% 12.8% 13.57% 16.35% 14.36% 18.14% 18.85%
FCF / Net Income (%) 87.35% 73.78% 67.05% 116.74% 184.86% 79.95% 88.75% 89.13%

Profitability

        
ROA 10.28% 10.26% 8.88% 7.7% 7.65% 7.88% 7.89% 8.24%
ROE 47.91% 47.39% 40.35% 34.54% 33.49% 31.02% 27.34% 25.94%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 2.44x 2.46x 2.89x 3.24x 3.01x 2.77x 2.38x 2.1x
Debt / Free cash flow 4.84x 5.47x 7.85x 7.84x 6.23x 6.37x 4.49x 3.94x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 7.1% 6.9% 7.45% 7.65% 6.01% 6.5% 6.24% 6.36%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 19.5% 19.28% 21.46% 23.31% 17.76% 19.71% 18.21% 17.96%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 38.65% 42.83% 58.19% 56.37% 36.78% 45.27% 34.4% 33.74%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 2.053 1.697 1.833 1.929 1.969 1.839 2.056 2.255
Change - -17.33% 8.05% 5.19% 2.07% -6.56% 11.79% 9.65%
Dividend per Share 1 0.9239 1.019 1.035 1.035 - 0.5517 0.589 0.6537
Change - 10.34% 1.51% 0% - - 6.75% 11%
Book Value Per Share 1 4.151 4.394 4.491 4.991 4.888 5.766 6.808 7.815
Change - 5.84% 2.21% 11.14% -2.06% 17.97% 18.07% 14.79%
EPS 1 1.694 2.095 1.728 1.057 0.779 1.594 1.794 1.923
Change - 23.65% -17.52% -38.83% -26.3% 104.59% 12.54% 7.2%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 2,278,906 2,245,879 2,219,979 2,222,295 2,223,723 2,224,397 2,224,397 2,224,397
Announcement Date 28/07/22 01/08/23 30/07/24 05/08/25 06/08/26 - - -
1USD
Estimates
2027 *2028 *
P/E 13.8x 12.2x
PBR 3.8x 3.22x
EV / Sales 3.46x 3.33x
Yield 2.52% 2.69%

EPS & Dividend



Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

 

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
22
Last Close Price
21.93USD
Average target price
26.98USD
Spread / Average Target
+23.05%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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