Yves Sanquer

Rates: Managing expectations

We were eagerly awaiting Friday to get the latest data about US inflation.

April 02, 2024 at 04:36 pm

Currencies: Would you like some more carry?

The end of the quarter is always a good time to take stock of what went well and what needs to be improved. New opportunities are sure to emerge over the next few weeks, so let's take a look at what macro can bring us.

April 02, 2024 at 04:33 pm

Currencies: The Swiss franc takes a beating

The Swiss National Bank's surprise decision to cut its key rates by 25 basis points did not go unnoticed. In the wake of this decision, which was made possible by the effectiveness of the Bank's anti-inflation measures, the Swiss franc fell back against all G10 currencies.

March 25, 2024 at 02:55 pm

Interest rates: Closing the gap!

At the end of a busy week of central bank meetings of all kinds, the main thing to remember is that the US Federal Reserve played the tune expected by most investors. The program includes a first rate cut in June. And what about inflation? Nothing alarming, for the moment.

March 25, 2024 at 10:58 am

Interest rates: Knock-knock, it's inflation!

Intoxicated by the rise in equity markets and promises of future rate cuts, we thought we'd done away with inflation for good. But then, like a hiccup, inflation came back to bite investors in the ass. A momentary scare?

March 19, 2024 at 03:08 pm

Currencies: Focus on the Renminbi

After reading so many articles on the numerous attempts by the authorities to revive the Chinese economy, it seemed only fitting to take a closer look at the currency. But why? If you want to invest locally, you first need to own local currency. This is why forex is nicknamed "fast money", and primarily reflects investors' interest (or lack of it) in a specific geographical area. At least in theory.

March 19, 2024 at 02:47 pm

Currencies: Dollar- Clouds on the horizon

It won't be long before the prospect of an interest rate cut in the United States starts to stir the pot. And in this game, the dollar no longer enjoys major fundamental support.

March 11, 2024 at 02:50 pm

Rates: Thanks Jerome!

Jerome Powell's speech to the U.S. Senate removed any doubt as to what to do next. The ECB followed suit, suggesting that inflation was on the right track. Markets applauded as bond yields eased.

March 11, 2024 at 02:37 pm

Forex: Descent into Hell

No, we're not here to tell you about Orpheus' epic journey to retrieve his beloved Eurydice from the Underworld. But as we mentioned last week, the yen has investors unanimously against it. After all, you can take almost any other G10 currency and realize that it does better than the Japanese one. When can we expect a return to earth?

March 04, 2024 at 03:13 pm

Rates : One indicator chases another

Inflation is a bit like investment: it's not always easy to follow through. As proof of this, last Thursday's publication of the US Household Personal Spending Index (PCE) did not confirm the information previously provided by the CPI. So, what does inflation do?

March 04, 2024 at 03:03 pm

Currencies: The end of consolidation is imminent for the USDZAR

Despite an attractive yield differential, the South African rand is unable to counterbalance the US dollar. There's no shortage of explanations for this: lower annual growth and a much higher unemployment rate and inflation in South Africa than in the United States. What follows does not look much better, and should further benefit the greenback.

February 26, 2024 at 10:45 am

Currencies: New opportunity for the Swiss franc

The Swiss franc is traditionally regarded as a safe haven. In the current context of soaring equity indices, it is therefore logical to expect it to underperform the other main currencies. But does this call into question the underlying trend? Let's take a look at the EURCHF.

February 19, 2024 at 03:16 pm

Interest rates: The first cracks start to appear

The stock market rally underway since October was fueled not only by the productivity gains generated by AI, but also by the return of inflation towards 2%. While the first pillar is still holding firm, the second is beginning to show its first cracks.

February 19, 2024 at 10:42 am

Currencies: Caution on EURHUF

Several months ago, we drew your attention to the carry trade opportunities offered by certain currencies. The Mexican peso, Turkish lira and Hungarian forint fall into this category. This week, we're taking stock of the situation, as the going gets a little tougher.

February 12, 2024 at 02:59 pm

Rates: Waiting for the CPI

If you were away from markets last week, rest assured that you didn't miss much. In the absence of major events and after the central banks, investors have had little in the way of crisp statistics to sink their teeth into.

February 12, 2024 at 02:55 pm

Currencies: The US dollar benefits from delayed rate cut expectations

Investors gambled and lost. While speculation was rife that the Fed would cut rates for the first time as early as next March, the Fed remained firm, even if it conceded that the future move would indeed be towards a more accommodative stance. As a result, the dollar is benefiting.

February 05, 2024 at 04:20 pm

Rates: The Fed turns a blind eye (and everyone laughs)

Unsurprisingly, the Fed kept its key rates unchanged at 5.50%. The real question, however, was whether investors were right to anticipate six rate cuts this year, with the first move in March. The Fed's answer to this question was a resounding "no".

February 05, 2024 at 04:15 pm

Currencies: The Euro in poor form against NOK and CAD

Some days, nothing goes according to plan. That's what the euro - if it could speak - might say to itself after the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting. Indeed, if the Bank had kept its key rates unchanged, we might have expected this to translate into a strengthening of the single currency. But no! At least not against currencies historically linked to the price of a barrel of oil.

January 29, 2024 at 03:03 pm

Rates: An ECB meeting for nothing

Unsurprisingly, the European Central maintained its main key rate at 4%. It explained that it would be premature to bet on a rate cut in the near future, but left the door open for an easing in the summer.

January 29, 2024 at 02:56 pm

Dollar vs. ruble: A rematch

Those of you who have been around for a long time will recall with some emotion the 1980s, when America, embodied on screen by Rocky Balboa, beat the living daylights out of his Russian adversary, Ivan Drago. More recently, when Russia invaded Ukrainian territory, Joe Biden promised to destroy the ruble. Did he win his bet?

January 22, 2024 at 02:39 pm

Rates: Hot off the press!

To cut rates or not to cut rates in March? Speculation is still rife between the rhetoric of some and the expectations of others. Last week, the Fed brought its hawks out of the woodwork, as did the ECB at the World Economic Forum in Davos, to calm the ardor of the staunch supporters of a rapid rate cut. While fixed-income investors seem to have had enough, the equity market prefers to focus on the good news about the Fed. Before reality catches up?

January 22, 2024 at 02:35 pm