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5-day change | 1st Jan Change | ||
| 17.79 EUR | +0.79% |
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-5.67% | -19.91% |
| 03-09 | Universal Music Group Price Target Slashed as Bernstein Notes Higher-than-Expected Debt | MT |
| 03-06 | Oil Shock Meets Job Shock |  |
Projected Income Statement: Universal Music Group N.V.
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 8,504 | 10,340 | 11,108 | 11,834 | 12,507 | 13,620 | 14,668 | 15,639 |
| Change | - | 21.59% | 7.43% | 6.54% | 5.69% | 8.9% | 7.69% | 6.62% |
| EBITDA 1 | 1,788 | 2,135 | 2,369 | 2,661 | 2,810 | 2,991 | 3,322 | 3,648 |
| Change | - | 19.41% | 10.96% | 12.33% | 5.6% | 6.44% | 11.06% | 9.84% |
| EBIT 1 | 1,399 | 1,600 | 1,418 | 1,775 | 1,998 | 2,262 | 2,579 | 2,807 |
| Change | - | 14.37% | -11.38% | 25.18% | 12.56% | 13.22% | 14.01% | 8.82% |
| Interest Paid 1 | -234 | -698 | 303 | 1,092 | - | -177.7 | -179.3 | -178.2 |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 1,165 | 900 | 1,721 | 2,871 | 2,086 | 2,116 | 2,453 | 2,787 |
| Change | - | -22.75% | 91.22% | 66.82% | -27.34% | 1.46% | 15.88% | 13.64% |
| Net income 1 | 886 | 782 | 1,259 | 2,086 | 1,533 | 1,598 | 1,845 | 2,077 |
| Change | - | -11.74% | 61% | 65.69% | -26.51% | 4.25% | 15.42% | 12.61% |
| Announcement Date | 03/03/22 | 02/03/23 | 28/02/24 | 06/03/25 | 05/03/26 | - | - | - |
Forecast Balance Sheet: Universal Music Group N.V.
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt 1 | 2,010 | 1,810 | 1,689 | 2,098 | - | 2,279 | 1,433 | 515 |
| Change | - | -9.95% | -6.69% | 24.22% | - | - | -37.12% | -64.06% |
| Announcement Date | 03/03/22 | 02/03/23 | 28/02/24 | 06/03/25 | 05/03/26 | - | - | - |
Cash Flow Forecast: Universal Music Group N.V.
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAPEX 1 | 61 | 93 | 121 | 183 | 328.6 | 201.2 | 178.6 |
| Change | - | 52.46% | 30.11% | 51.24% | - | -38.77% | -11.25% |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 | 1,079 | 1,639 | 1,764 | 1,082 | 1,602 | 2,120 | 2,375 |
| Change | - | 51.9% | 7.63% | -38.66% | - | 32.37% | 12% |
| Announcement Date | 03/03/22 | 02/03/23 | 28/02/24 | 06/03/25 | - | - | - |
Forecast Financial Ratios: Universal Music Group N.V.
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Profitability | ||||||||
| EBITDA Margin (%) | 21.03% | 20.65% | 21.33% | 22.49% | 22.47% | 21.96% | 22.65% | 23.33% |
| EBIT Margin (%) | 16.45% | 15.47% | 12.77% | 15% | 15.98% | 16.61% | 17.58% | 17.95% |
| EBT Margin (%) | 13.7% | 8.7% | 15.49% | 24.26% | 16.68% | 15.54% | 16.72% | 17.82% |
| Net margin (%) | 10.42% | 7.56% | 11.33% | 17.63% | 12.26% | 11.73% | 12.58% | 13.28% |
| FCF margin (%) | 12.69% | 15.85% | 15.88% | 9.14% | - | 11.76% | 14.46% | 15.19% |
| FCF / Net Income (%) | 121.78% | 209.59% | 140.11% | 51.87% | - | 100.23% | 114.95% | 114.34% |
Profitability | ||||||||
| ROA | 10.76% | 12.25% | 10.18% | 13.72% | - | 10.95% | 11.26% | 10.1% |
| ROE | 69.38% | 66.38% | 47.39% | 55.72% | - | 35.17% | 33.22% | 31.55% |
Financial Health | ||||||||
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | 1.12x | 0.85x | 0.71x | 0.79x | - | 0.76x | 0.43x | 0.14x |
| Debt / Free cash flow | 1.86x | 1.1x | 0.96x | 1.94x | - | 1.42x | 0.68x | 0.22x |
Capital Intensity | ||||||||
| CAPEX / Current Assets (%) | 0.72% | 0.9% | 1.09% | 1.55% | - | 2.41% | 1.37% | 1.14% |
| CAPEX / EBITDA (%) | 3.41% | 4.36% | 5.11% | 6.88% | - | 10.99% | 6.06% | 4.89% |
| CAPEX / FCF (%) | 5.65% | 5.67% | 6.86% | 16.91% | - | 20.51% | 9.49% | 7.52% |
Items per share | ||||||||
| Cash flow per share 1 | 0.6288 | 0.9524 | 1.036 | 0.9606 | - | 1.07 | 1.147 | 1.316 |
| Change | - | 51.46% | 8.81% | -7.3% | - | - | 7.26% | 14.64% |
| Dividend per Share 1 | 0.4 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.52 | - | 0.5794 | 0.6242 | 0.679 |
| Change | - | 27.5% | 0% | 1.96% | - | - | 7.73% | 8.78% |
| Book Value Per Share 1 | 1.12 | 1.295 | 1.628 | 2.474 | - | 3.087 | 3.498 | 3.669 |
| Change | - | 15.62% | 25.78% | 51.96% | - | - | 13.33% | 4.88% |
| EPS 1 | 0.49 | 0.43 | 0.68 | 1.13 | 0.83 | 0.8718 | 0.9765 | 1.133 |
| Change | - | -12.24% | 58.14% | 66.18% | -26.55% | 5.03% | 12.01% | 16.03% |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 1,813,376 | 1,813,046 | 1,821,431 | 1,829,067 | 1,833,946 | 1,833,946 | 1,833,946 | 1,833,946 |
| Announcement Date | 03/03/22 | 02/03/23 | 28/02/24 | 06/03/25 | 05/03/26 | - | - | - |
| 2026 * | 2027 * | |
|---|---|---|
| P/E ratio | 20.2x | 18.1x |
| PBR | 5.72x | 5.05x |
| EV / Sales | 2.54x | 2.3x |
| Yield | 3.28% | 3.54% |
EPS & Dividend
Y-o-Y evolution of P/E
Year-on-year evolution of the Yield
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Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise
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