(Alliance News) - If the OPS on Banco BPM Spa has opened a new front for UniCredit Spa, the Commerzbank game looks set to remain on standby for several months. In recent days, opposition to the transaction has intensified.

As Milano Finanza reported on Tuesday, a group of large corporate clients of Commerzbank AG met with the CEO, Bettina Orlopp, urging her to reject the deal with UniCredit.

According to Reuters, the entrepreneurs fear a possible restructuring and downsizing of the bank and urged management to defend its independence. Among the most critical, Ulrich Grillo, an E.On executive and former chairman of the Federation of German Industries, expressed fears that key financial decisions would be made in Milan instead of Frankfurt. Christian Miele, venture capitalist, also said that no one present supported the agreement.

The entrepreneurs' opposition adds to that expressed by Germany's 16 regional states, which have called on the government in Berlin to use its influence to ensure Commerzbank's autonomy. The concern is further amplified by Germany's upcoming election renewal in February, which could reshuffle the political balance.

Against this backdrop, UniCredit seems intent on postponing any decision on Commerzbank until the second half of 2025, focusing in the meantime on the OPS on Banco BPM. As stated by CEO, Andrea Orcel, the final decision will not come before a year. By mid-December, UniCredit will submit to Consob and European and Italian regulators the necessary documentation for the transaction on Banco BPM. The go-ahead is expected between April and May 2025, with Banco's delisting scheduled for June.

However, the unknown factor of political resistance remains. Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti has ventilated the possibility of using Golden Power to block a transaction considered "not agreed upon." Orcel could respond with a more generous offer, proposing a 20-30% premium and a cash component to soften the position of Banco BPM shareholders.

UniCredit could also offer strategic concessions to Crédit Agricole, renewing its partnership with Amundi or divesting branches, as Intesa Sanpaolo Spa did with BPER Banca Spa in 2020. If the Banco BPM deal closes by the third quarter of 2025, UniCredit could reopen the Commerzbank dossier with a more favorable policy framework and an established position of strength in the Italian market. Meanwhile, Fitch confirmed UniCredit's rating at 'BBB+' with Positive outlook following the OPS on Banco BPM.

By Giuseppe Fabio Ciccomascolo, Alliance News senior reporter

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