Good morning, analysts, investor, banker, fund manager and management. On behalf of Thai Union Group, I would like to welcome you to the analyst meeting for the first quarter of 2024 result announcement. My name is [ Nonwan Kidwa Taisan ], and I will be your MC today. I hope you enjoyed our mini breakfast and tasted some of our innovative products.
Today, we are proud to present you one of our products from Frozen and Chilled Seafood category, which is spicy shrimp, and we supply this product to our customers in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. And today, we serve it as a mini burger. Additionally, you may have tried our QFresh light tuna slice served with macaroni and cheese, and we hope you have a bon appetit.
Now I would like to take this opportunity to introduce you to 2 new members of IR team. First, Kun Pinyada Saengsakdaharn our Head of Investor Relations. And the second person is me, [ Nonwan Kidwa Taisan ] [indiscernible].
Let's move on to the introduction of our key speaker and the agenda today. First, we have Kun Thiraphong Chansiri, our President and CEO. He will walk you through the key highlights and recent development, and followed by our Group CFO, Mr. Ludovic Garnier. He will walk you through the consolidated results, and our Head of Investor Relations, Kun Pinyada will walk you through the business performance by category.
At this session, we will take around 1.5 hours, including the Q&A session. We will then have a 10-minute break and followed by the TFM Analyst Meeting.
Without further ado, I would like to invite Kun Thiraphong to begin the results announcement.
[Interpreted] Good morning and hello to all of the analysts joining us today. Today is a day for us to share with you our operational results for the first quarter of 2024. Overall, it's a good sign that our business is returning to a normal state since the 2 past quarters. The main reason for last year, we had a destocking, we had a high interest, which led to our customers worldwide to focus on managing their inventory very strictly. And now the base has been reset and things are normalizing.
In the first quarter, even though if you look at our profit, which has not grown by much, perhaps by 1.7%, total sales, the main reason for this slight increase is the price of tuna which dropped to -- dropped for 3 quarters continuously, to $1,300. And this is a level that is the lowest in the past period. This led to our sales prices having to be adjusted to reflect those material price -- raw material prices, and this affected our overall sales.
And the second thing is we had a rightsizing strategy for our frozen business in the U.S. Plus the frozen seafood business market in the States softening. These are the 2 factors that made our sales numbers not that exciting.
We'd like you to focus more on our profitability, whether it's in terms of our gross profit margin or our operating profit, as well as our EBITDA and our net profit.
I'm not going to talk about the share price. Let's skip over that.
The net debt to equity is still in a low level at 0.82x, even though it increased from 0.78, a slight increase. The main reason is due to the repurchase of stock, the buying back of stock or shares. In the first quarter, we have bought about 80-or-so million shares. And this program, the plan is to buy no more than 200 million shares up until June of this year. This is one reason for our higher use of CapEx, even though our CapEx for this year, we plan to use less than planned for.
And our gross profit margin is a good number. The first quarter is normally the lowest for the year, but our gross profit margin is at about 17% or so, and the absolute amount has gone up by 17% year-on-year. The operating profit 93%. And our net profit, without including Red Lobster, our net profit increased by 54%. And these are numbers that we are quite happy with.
On the next page, you can see a clearer picture for last year. The reported net profit, THB 1 billion, but if we removed the effects from Red Lobster, for a clearer picture, you can see that our adjusted net profit is THB 749 million, which is an increase of 50% -- or 53% or so.
On the next page, in terms of our share buyback. We announced this. This is our third buyback program, starting on the 16th of January. And we began buying back the shares on the 20th of February and will continue until the 30th of June. We have bought up to 85.7 million shares already. And so please be aware of this.
We intend to -- capital. We have our second buyback, but we have not lowered the numbers yet. If we use both -- shares from both of the latter programs, this will reduce the numbers for us.
On the next page, we issued bonds and loans in Japan, and we used the credit rating, we employed a Japanese credit rating agency. And the credit rating agency in Japan has more confidence in us than the agency here in Thailand. Last year, we exited Red Lobster, and they reviewed this, and they upgraded our rating to A from A-. And A is considered the equivalent of the rating for the country. And this shows the foreign confidence in our company.
And on the next page, our new products that we have released continuously. You can take a look at those on your own. And if you have any questions, please do ask us.
And on the next page, it comes with every quarter, we have -- we receive awards, whether it's in terms of our Best Issuer for Sustainable Finance, our best sustainability linked loan for food products. We also received the award from the Asset magazine, the Treasurise Award for the best ESG solution. And we also have an ESG as well as a B rating from the Carbon Disclosure Project or CDP.
And on the next page, these are our activities that are in line with our vision for a Healthy Living and Healthy Oceans achievement.
And I will now hand things over to Ludovic to discuss the financial performance. And if you have any questions later on, we'll discuss afterwards. Thank you.
Thank you, Kun Thiraphong. Very happy to be with you this morning. The key takeaways in Q1, we have many good news to share with you. First of all, if we talk about the Group numbers, we have 3 categories out of 4 who are back to growth in terms of top line, all of them except for the Frozen. And the gross profit margin is also slightly exceeding 17%, 17.3%.
Kun Thiraphong mentioned this one very often because of seasonality of our Q1 GP margin is the lowest within the year. So I think we are really improving compared to last year, and this is good news.
Just a quick word now by category. The Ambient sales are back to growth, okay? We told you last year, one of the issues we have been facing, we had to increase a lot of our prices in many countries in the Ambient, so we lost some volumes. We told you in Q4, the priority for us in the Ambient is to recover the volumes, and this is happening already in Q1. Okay? So very happy with the volume increase, 12%. Very happy with the sales increase, 13%.
The gross profit margin is dropping a bit compared to last year. That was expected also. You will see, with the fish price development that we have seen over the past 3 quarters, a sharp drop of the fish price. This is good for us in the long term. But of course, in the short term, when you have some sharp price decrease, of the fish price, we have to adjust down our selling prices. We are still processing the fish, which is in our inventory. So this is very usual for us, there is no concern. So quite happy with the Ambient performance.
Now if I move to the Frozen performance. So if you keep in mind, last year, we did -- started to execute the rightsizing for U.S. Frozen operation in Q2. So you have in Q1 here, the impact of the rightsizing of the U.S. Frozen operation. This is one component. You have another component also, which is we are still facing with a very soft market in the U.S. in the Frozen, okay? So these are the 2 key drivers for the drop of the sales by 18%.
To the opposite, you will hear also some very good news from our feed business and also our chilled business in Europe is doing good. So overall, we are happy with the gross profit margin development, just below 12%. We are happy with this one. It's still a bit inflated by some reversal of inventory. So again, I don't expect this one to be sustainable forever. I would expect 10% to 11% should be the normal GP margin for Frozen business in the future.
The PetCare, also we told you we expect strong recovery to happen in Q1. This is happening. And maybe you attended the i-Tail presentation last Friday. We have many good news, both in terms of top line and also in terms of gross profit margin, okay? The recovery here is quicker compared to our own expectation, and this is good.
So in terms of net profit, we're at THB 1.2 billion in Q1. We are growing by 13% reported numbers and by 54% compared to adjusted Q1 '23, if you remove Red Lobster. So strong performances, and I think this is fully aligned with our guidance and what we told you also in our Q4.
So we have one -- small one-off that I want to mention in Q1, which is also the sale of our minority investment in LDH. So what is LDH? LDH, we have been investing in this company since 2006. And this is a distributor in the U.K., and then we are taking care of our distribution of our OEM business, okay? So they don't do anything with our branded business. They are just taking care of the OEM distribution, and only in the U.K. And we have been a minority partners since 2006.
It has been a very successful investment. Since the beginning, we have a shareholder agreement where the majority shareholder, they had the option to buy back the minority investors. And we're not the only one. There are some other minority investors, okay? So at the end of 2023, they informed us that they wanted to buy out and they wanted to become the only shareholder, okay? We cannot say yes, we cannot say no. That was the agreement from the beginning of the shareholder agreement.
So here, we sold our shares. You can see here the transaction value is GBP 19 million. We had a small capital gain, THB 52 million, which is recorded in Q1 in our other income, okay? We did not record any share profit in Q1 from LDH. Just for you to keep in mind, the LDH contribution roughly every year was something close to THB 100 million, okay? So moving forward, we will not record any more share profit from LDH.
In terms of operation, we'll still keep working with them, okay? So they will still -- they will still be taking care of the distribution of our OEM products. So we don't expect significant changes in our business in Europe due to this change.
If you move to next one. So this is the 4-year picture. And here, you can clearly see the recovery, top line, we are back to growth. It's modest, it's soft yet. So we want to have more in the next quarters. Still this is growing after 4 quarters where we were dropping in terms of top line.
The gross profit margin also is recovering. We can see here the gross profit is growing by 17%, compared to the fourth quarter where we were dropping before. And also the net profit is recovering very strongly. So overall, the trend is good.
In terms of currency, we have some good news. And although we can see in Q1, the Thai baht has been depreciating versus all key currencies, okay, especially the USD, also the Euro and the GBP, okay. And the average in Q1 of the USD is 35.7, growing by 5% compared to last year. This is a positive impact for us.
Of course, as we are exporting a lot, this is also much better when compared to our own budget assumption. If you remember in our budget, we were assuming 33.5 for the whole year. So of course, in Q1, it's much better. However, we do expect the FX to decrease in the next quarter and especially in Q3 and in Q4. But so far, in Q1, very happy with the FX development.
So if you move to the next slide, so you have here all the fish price. Here, we have also some good news on the tuna price. And you can see -- this is 3 quarters in a row where the tuna price has been dropping, okay? This is very unusual. We had this situation only once before back in 2013, okay? And here, it dropped by almost $700, from $2,000 to $1,300. Very sharp decrease.
We are happy with this one. We do believe, however, we are at the bottom of this one. We don't expect further drop to happen in Q2. And you can see the price in April is starting to increase a bit, $1,375, okay?
So we do expect the tuna price to recover gradually and to increase further also in Q3 and in Q4. However, for the whole year, we expect to have some good news compared to our budget assumptions. If you remember in Q4, we told you our budget assumption was $1,750. Very clearly, we believe, on that average, the tuna price will be lower for the whole year. That would be beneficial for us for our business because it allows us to do some more promotion, to decrease our prices also in some countries. So this is a good news, even if in the short term, it puts a bit of pressure on our Ambient gross profit margin.
The shrimp price, THB 136, I think under control. Nothing significant to worry about. The salmon price is high. This is very usual in Q1 and Q2, it is increasing. But then normally in Q3 and in Q4 is dropping. You can see this is what we have seen over the past 2 years, at least. So we don't have any big concern. But overall, we have less pressure coming from the fish price in Q1, and this is good for us.
Now if you move to the key ratio that we have. So all the ratios are improving. Of course, our profitability is improving. Very happy also to see the net debt to EBITDA, which is at 4x. The target for us is to move further down, okay, between 3.5 to 4. And we do believe this year with the fish price declining, we have a good opportunity to decrease our net working capital and then to decrease also our net debt. Our net debt to equity is increasing a bit at 0.82. But overall, so far, we are really in a comfortable situation and a very strong financial situation.
We have some good news also in terms of inventories. The value of the inventories is dropping compared to Q1 '23, dropping also compared to Q4. This is going in the right direction.
And to be frank, this is a bit unusual for us. Normally in Q1, we always build up a bit of inventory. So it's a good news for us to see the inventories decreasing in Q1, and we have been pushing very hard on that.
Now if we move to the net debt bridge. So our net debt has been increasing a bit in Q1 from THB 51.5 million to THB 52.6 billion. You can see here are the key components. So first of all, talking about the free cash flow, we are very happy with the free cash flow. We have positive free cash flow in Q1 by THB 0.8 billion. This is very unusual for us, okay? Usually, we are always breakeven or slightly negative because usually in Q1 our net working capital is increasing, okay? Here, you can see it's flat. We had a bit of FX impact also on the balance sheet. But overall, the EBITDA is strong and recovering strongly. So very strong free cash flow for Q1. This is good.
And then after that, you can see some investing activities. So we have been doing some share buyback. You had Kun Thiraphong mentioning about this one. So we have 1.2. And this is partially offset by the proceeds received on LDH by THB 800 million. And then we have also a bit of FX on the top right for THB 600 million, THB 700 million.
The cost of debt has been increasing a bit on average, from 3.59% from 3.77%. But this is fully aligned also with our guidance. So there is no concern on this one. But clearly, I remind you, the intention, if you remove the share buyback is to have a net debt decrease in 2024 over the whole year.
And then my last slide here, you can see the component of our debt portfolio, we get back to something which is more normal for us. I remind you, at the end of 2023, we had this orange box. Now the orange box, we get the consent from the lenders. So it's back to the long term. So we have the vast majority of our debt, which is long term. We have almost 80% and the fixed portion also is 76%. So also very high, okay? We have a bit of refinancing to be performed at the end of the year. This is a small number. We had a bit more coming in 2025. And we have also to take some decision on the debt, the debt coming to maturity by the end of the year. So we'll have to decide also what do we do with this one.
And now I will hand over to [ Kun Kwan ] for the review by business.
[Interpreted] Hello, everyone. For our business performance by category, I'd like to begin with the breakdown. You can see as our executives have told you since the beginning, in the first quarter, the company has sales of THB 33 billion. And the contribution is from Ambient. The revenue contribution is about 52%. This is an increase by about 6% for the same period of last year. At the same time, our sales breakdown by channel. Our brand customers have about 52%, and the private label, or OEM, the sales contribution is about 47%.
And the second thing is our Frozen category. The sales contribution is at about 29%, down by 7% from the same period of last year. If we take a look at the sales breakdown by channel, the majority comes from our OEM at about 66% and the brand is about 34%.
And thirdly, the sales from our PetCare. We have sales contribution at about 12%, which is about 1% higher than the last year and the same period of last year.
And the sales breakdown by channel. PetCare for us, the majority of customers come from private label or OEM, at about 99%. And lastly is our value-added category. We have a sales contribution of about 8%, increasing by about 1% from the same period of last year.
And like PetCare, the sales breakdown by channel, you can see that the majority of the customers comes from OEM customers at 83%, and branded customers are 17%.
Our Ambient sales by the first quarter, the overall sales are at THB 17 billion. This is an increase of about 13% year-on-year. This is due to demand in every region increasing, especially in the Middle East and Europe, especially France, and also from the U.S.
And the sales volume rose in line with our increasing sales by 12% year-on-year. This is mostly from our OEM customers, who grew by about 24% year-on-year. And the main reason for this is the drop in tuna prices significantly in the past quarters. And our Ambient profit margin, as we mentioned earlier, we are facing challenges due to the lower Tuna prices. So our profit margin is dropping from 18% in the first quarter of last year to 16.6% in the first quarter of this year. And the main reason is that we still have inventory that have higher costs.
And next, this is what Ludo shared with you earlier. So I'd like to add just a few more details. If you take a look at the box on the right-hand side, you can see that the tuna price has dropped by about USD 700 per ton for 3 quarters. And if you take a look at the second quarter of 2023, the average price of tuna is about USD 2,000 per ton. Dropped down to -- in the first quarter of this year dropped down to $1,300 or so per ton. And we communicated this in the past, for 2017 it dropped down by $450 per -- and you can see that the gross profit margin for the Ambient seafood has been impacted by this. But we believe that this is only a temporary impact. And in March of this year, the average price was $1,300 per ton.
But for April, the tuna price has begun to increase at $1,375 per ton. We believe that we have passed the low point.
On the next page, this is further explanation of our Frozen category. You can see that the sales are at THB 9.6 billion, lowering by 17.7% year-on-year. And the 2 main reasons for this are first that we have -- had soft demand, especially in the United States for shrimp and crab meat as well. And the second factor is that we had our rightsizing strategy as we explained for 2023. And rightsizing, we began the rightsizing strategy and we told our investors about this since the second quarter of 2023.
And if we compare with the first quarter of this year compared to last year, we didn't have a rightsizing strategy in the last year. So for the first quarter of this year, this is another main reason for the results in our Frozen business. Nonetheless, in the Frozen category, we are recording the profit from the feed business as well. And you can see from -- the feed has grown by 8% year-on-year, especially from the shrimp feed in Indonesia. And the details of this, for the feed business, will be provided in the next session with TFM from the management and the IR team at about 11:00 today.
The sales volume for the Frozen business, you can see that it dropped by about 4% year-on-year. And this is mostly from the sales volume from OEM customers and branded as well.
Our gross profit margin, you can see that it increased by 4% from 7.9% in the same period of last year where we have the impact from our low-margin products increasing to about 12% in the first quarter of this year. And this reflects the rightsizing strategy where we removed SKUs that have lower margins or no margin at all. This has improved our gross profit margin for the company.
And next, and the third category, our PetCare products, you can see that our sales stand at THB 3.9 billion. This is an increase of 13% year-on-year. And the main cause of this is that we have our premium priced mix products as well as an adjustment or prices upwards.
And in PetCare, there is demand that is returning from our key customers, especially in Europe, in Asia and Oceana. Nonetheless, our sales volume has increased a bit at 1% year-on-year. And the gross profit margin for PetCare is at about 25.7%, since because our premium mix that is improved and higher, as well as our higher selling prices, and we have been able to lower our overhead costs.
And lastly, our Value-Added category. You can see that sales increased year-on-year. This is mostly from our sales from the value-added and ingredient business. For instance, our supplements, our ingredients, our alternative protein, and the sales from these products increased. And at the same time, our sales volume dropped by about 13% year-on-year, and this is mostly from the byproducts.
And lastly, our value-added profit margins is at a high level at about 29.5%. This is due to recovery in our packaging business. Packaging has a growth of gross profit margin -- has increased our gross profit margin for the value-added category, because the raw material for packaging like steel and aluminum, our main materials dropped, the prices dropped. And this is the breakdown of -- by category.
And now it's time for us to have a -- take a look at the outlook for 2024, and I'd like to hand things over to Kun Thiraphong.
[Interpreted] For the outlook, I believe that the tuna price will begin to move upwards in the third and fourth quarter because we have to admit that the price at the moment is quite low. There has never been a drop in 3 -- 4 consecutive quarters. And we do not expect the price to go up significantly to more than $1,800 per ton. We will monitor demand in the market as well.
And with the increase in fish price, this means that our profit can also increase because our selling prices will have to be adjusted upwards. And as for the OEM products, when the selling prices increased, we expect that our gross margin will improve as well.
The increase in volume will lead to our production -- has to be utilization improvement, and our costs will lower. And this is a good development.
In terms of guidance from us, at the moment, we confirm our -- the guidance that we provided earlier for our top line growth of 3% to 4%, a gross profit margin of 17% to 18%, SG&A to sales of 11% to 12%.
Our effective interest rate should increase to -- from 0 to 0.5%. CapEx, we will use as little as possible at about THB 4 billion to THB 4.5 billion. And our dividend policy remains the same. We will continue to pay out 50% dividend 2 times a year.
And please take a look at the notes. Our sales growth may not be that exciting of a number, but this is because of the budget that we had set. We have an exchange rate of THB 33.5 to the U.S. dollar. And the raw material price -- or the fish prices are, USD 1,700 to USD 1,750 per ton. So the trend for the increasing raw material prices and the exchange rate expectations at the [indiscernible] level for the rest of the year. I personally believe that we will have better results than we have forecast for ourselves. So we are -- these numbers are conservative, and we will reconfirm them.
Overall, there is nothing to worry about. In terms of labor, for instance, we acknowledge the change and we are -- we have been ready since the end of last year, at THB 400. This is not anything new. And we expect in the future according to the current policy, it may be -- it may be up to THB 700 in the next few years, and we are planning for situations like this. We have contingency plans. The world situation, not just in Thailand, but the global situation. We are aware of this and our company, we are proactive. And in the second quarter, we expect to be able to share more with you.
For right now, we are working with our consultants, and we are looking towards business transformation, a complete business transformation, so that our costs can become more competitive, and we will be able to have cash to invest in areas that we want to invest, whether it's our own brand or continuous investment in our own brands, investment in sustainability that we have commitment for, and also investment in digital concerns. And we will share this with you in the next quarter.
But for now, this is what I want to share with you that our management team, we are not complacent. We are proactive. We are going to be faster and that is the direction for our organization.
i-Tail is the same. They will share. They are also not complacent. i-Tail is focusing on growth acceleration and they have plans for this, and I am confident that in the second quarter they will be able to share these plans with you.
So Thai Union's job, the entire group, we have a lot of work to do. And we have plans in place, a long-term plan, which will take a couple of years to implement. And this is what we'll be focusing more on. If you have any questions, we welcome them.
Thank you very much, executives, for the presentation. And now we will move on to the Q&A session. And as usual, we will prioritize questions from the floor. And for those who send from the online, for online participants, you can send the question through the chat in Zoom and send it to the Thai Union Investor Relations. So for participant in the hall, please raise your hand, and our team will get to you.
[Interpreted] Hello. I'd like to ask 2 questions. The first is I'd like you to share the -- for the second quarter, the orders from the U.S., what are they like and also your inventory. The higher prices in the first quarter, are they coming to an end? Will the gross margin in the second quarter improve, and how will that improve?
[Interpreted] The cost for our raw materials has continued to drop, and we are using the average price. In the second quarter, our costs will continue to drop even more. The volume -- our sales are clearly increasing in the first quarter. With the lower prices, we have more opportunity to do more promotions and this is a natural -- it's the nature of the business.
The situation in the past year -- the financial situation in the past year for the African region and the Middle Eastern region, there were some countries that had issues with hard currency. At the moment, they are adjusting -- there's positive adjustment. Orders in the Middle East are improving compared to last year.
So overall, we are quite positive in our outlook for the second and third quarter. And in the second quarter, we're already in the business, we actually can see all the way to the 6 months because we buy ahead, sell ahead, buy a couple of months to begin with. So things are very positive.
[Interpreted] I have 1 more question. Red Lobster. I understand that you have divested in Red Lobster. But with the news about the Chapter 11 from the banks, is this true or not? And I'd also like to ask the management to confirm you have divested completely. And in the worst-case scenario, if Red Lobster has Chapter 11. Will it affect Thai Union, especially in terms of your accounting numbers?
[Interpreted] When we say it's over, it means it's over. There is no impact on our financial numbers from the first quarter. Therefore, whether Red Lobster, what -- regardless of what Red Lobster does or whatever happens to Red Lobster, that will impact only Red Lobster. That is their issue to deal with. We will not have to recognize anything. So don't -- there's no need to worry.
Yes. Just one thing maybe to clarify. We have not divested yet Red Lobster. We are in the process of selling. We told you we took the decision in Q4 already, and we are right now in the process of selling the business, okay? And we tell you -- we told you also this will take a few quarters. So right now, we are still the owner of 49%. However, with the full impairment within in Q4, we put all the exposure to 0, okay? So in terms of shareholding, in terms of equity shares, all of this, the value now is 0, we are not exposed anymore.
We'll continue to do our normal operation with Red Lobster. Red Lobster is operating in the U.S., and we are still selling as we have been doing over the past few years, and we continue just our normal business with them. But as Kun Thiraphong mentioned, whatever the options is decided for Red Lobster, we do believe with the full impairment we have been very conservative. So we don't expect any further impact coming from them in the future.
[Interpreted] I'd like to ask about the second quarter because the price of fish will continue to be low. Your sales growth of 3% to 4%, will this accelerate in the second half? Or will we see it in increasing volume from the second quarter?
So here, you're right, our full year guidance is 3% to 4%. In Q1, we are below 2%. We do expect to see some acceleration. That's correct, in Q2 and also in Q3. Absolutely correct. Yes.
The momentum will be greater in the second half, or you think that we can like see from the second quarter onwards?
I think we'll see some first signs in Q2, but then we are planning to have an acceleration, you're right, coming in Q3 also, after.
More details on the gross margin. Can you explain more, given the second quarter is already getting to the high season, should we expect the gross margin, particularly Ambient, I think, it was too low in first quarter, can it get back to like 18% or even 20% in second quarter?
I think it will be gradual. We do expect some recovery in the gross profit margin. Honestly, I think we are a bit tough when you say the gross profit margin is low in Q1. When you have been facing a situation with 3 quarters of fish price drop by 700, last time it happened, our gross profit margin was at 14% -- 1-4. Now we're at 16.6%. So we have been declining compared to last year. But overall, we are kind of okay with that. Very clearly, we do expect some recovery in the next quarters.
Can we move from 16.6% to 20%? No, I don't think so. I think it will be gradual recovery in Q2 and also in Q3 after.
[Interpreted] The 17% to 18% guidance. So our idea is that we -- a high aim. Our first quarter is 17.3%, and we expect it to increase. Our viewpoint is that it will improve. And normally, in the second quarter and third quarter, these are the quarters where our performance is very strong to begin with. It's the season of consumption in the U.S. and in Europe in the second and third quarter.
[Interpreted] Could you tell us a little bit more about the sentiment for Europe and in the States? If we look at the momentum for the sales that we are seeing, are they improving? Or is there -- or are there economic factors that we have to worry about?
[Interpreted] I believe that in the U.S., it's improving. In terms of Chicken of the Sea, because we are in a low base, we have accelerated as much as possible. Our team today is very strong. We have a new office in Pittsburgh. And I am confident it has nothing to do with the economy. In the U.S., the U.S. economy for me, I believe, it is still struggling. It's still weak. It will continue to be weak. But we are monitoring the news, and you can see that the consumers there are very careful with their expenses. And I believe that in the second half of the year, they will probably continue this way as long as the interest has not lowered. They have a lot of issues to shoulder -- to bear. And in Europe, we believe that things will improve in Europe as well. The raw material prices are low, and this will help our overall picture.
[Interpreted] And I would like to ask one more question. The Frozen business, right now, do we -- can we use the first quarter as our new base after implementing our rightsizing strategy?
I guess the volume quite like 30% -- sorry, sales like 30% below the...
I think Q1 is a bit low for the Frozen. It shouldn't be the new baseline. I told you we had the rightsizing effect, which is there. So you're right, this is a new baseline. However, in Q1, the market is very soft. We don't expect this softness to continue. So we do expect in Q2, we will recover, okay? We will not be growing a lot. We would expect to be breakeven in terms of top line in Q2 for the Frozen business, and then after to be back to growth. So it shouldn't be your baseline, your new baseline.
[Interpreted] I have a question, building on the question just now. Can we take a look at the businesses? Ambient business first. I understand that in the -- when the tuna prices increase, our selling prices should improve, our margin should improve as well. But now, we're worried about the impact on volume, right, in the third quarter or fourth quarter?
[Interpreted] I believe that the prices will go up to 1,700 or 1,800. No more than that, per ton. And these are prices that we will be able to handle as usual. So there is no major concern. 1,200 is low, in fact, quite low, but it does help. It stimulates consumption.
[Interpreted] And also about your Frozen business, Ludo mentioned that the margin that we're seeing in the fourth quarter of last year, up until the first quarter of this year, it may be higher than normal. I would like to have better understanding what are the reasons for this? Because you mentioned soft demand in the U.S., why do we have a higher margin than normal in the past quarter?
Sure. So here, just for you to remember, we have been recording in 2022 and beginning of '23 also some accrual on the inventory, okay? Because at that time, the inventory price was too high. Right now, when we sell this inventory, we do reverse these inventories. So you have in the past few quarters some kind of inflationary impact on the gross profit margin coming from the reversal of this accruing inventory. But this is almost done. So we'll not benefit from that in the future.
Plus right now, we told you that our U.S. Frozen business is weak, okay, in terms of contribution in the overall Frozen business. We do believe this one will grow also in the future. But that will be dilutive for the business. This is why when you are facing some frozen gross profit margin around 14% or 12%, 13% this is high. This is high, okay? In the past, if you compare a few years ago, gross profit margin was always 9% to 10%, okay? We do believe with the rightsizing, we should be between 10%, 11% or 11.5%, okay? But being very close to 12% is unusual for us. Okay? So these are the 2 key items.
So in our value business, we have a few components. The biggest part is packaging. And you're right, the key raw material is really the steel and aluminum. The second portion will be our pure value-added business. Okay. Here, we are talking about Ambient salad or value-added and Frozen. So this will -- are the same raw materials, the Frozen and the Ambient business.
Apart from that, we have also our ingredient business. which is also linked to the tuna price. And we also our supplement business, which is a combination of very different activities. You have some impact also in this business on the fish price. Okay? I'll give you some examples. We have our fish meal business, our byproduct business is also in this category. When the fish price is declining, you have also some impact in this one. But if you say steel, aluminum tuna, these are the 3 key drivers for the value-added business.
[Interpreted] Thank you. And the company that does our canning for us, they're producing in Thailand, they're doing a good job. We are also producing in Seychelles as well. And this is to replace our other suppliers. And this is making us more competitive as well.
[Interpreted] Hello. I'd like to ask a little bit -- for a little bit more detail. For the second quarter, you're saying things are improving. But if we take a look at each category that Ms. [ Kwon ] showed, for quarter-on-quarter, of course, we will see improving sales. But in terms of quarter-on-quarter, whether it's the frozen business or the pet food segment, will you see improving volume for all of them -- for sales for all of them?
In Q2? Yes, we do think so.
So every...
Every categories. Yes. Frozen may be around breakeven, slightly negative, slightly positive. But we don't expect to have such a drop compared to Q1. Yes.
[Interpreted] In gross margin, if we take a look at every category as well, which category. Frozen is not going to improve, right, not going to increase?
That's right. Frozen not increase.
No, I don't expect the gross profit margin of frozen to improve. And I think it will kind of stabilize around this level.
But Ambient will increase.
Ambient, we do expect some increase. While at the fish price, we believe, is now at the bottom. It's not decreasing anymore. We do expect it will increase slightly in Q2. So we won't have any more of this negative impact in our gross profit margin. So we should start to see some improvement. But I don't think it will go to 20%, okay? Just to be very clear. It will be a gradual improvement from the 16.6% where we are right now to something a bit higher in Q2.
So if we look for the whole 3 quarters, gradually, the gross margin of tuna will be increased.
That's correct. Yes, that's correct. Of course, it will depend on the fish price. Right now, our assumption is we are at the bottom, and then we will recover slightly. If the actuals are very different from that, then we'll have to adjust our forecast.
But the Frozen will be like stable.
That's correct. That's correct.
Pet food, I'm not quite sure. Because I think the second quarter gross margin will be slightly declined, right?
So here, you have a forecast. Basically, they've been confirming that full year forecast. So there is no big change on that.
Okay. So -- okay.
[Interpreted] We don't address the target price. Is that what you want to do?
[Interpreted] Yes, Mr. Thiraphong. In the terms -- we talked about ITC, the gross margin for them for the first quarter, beat the target in terms of TU is similar, right? Even though this first quarter is 17.3%, right? But it's increasing.
This means that there will be some quarter -- I mean, perhaps the third quarter where it's above 18%, right. And the upside for sales, there is that available. You are using the assumption of 33.5%, right? It's 36% now. This is according to the bank. So you must have many banks supporting you.
[Interpreted] Analysts can change them, but we can't.
[Interpreted] And another question that I have about SG&A, for the first quarter, it's above the range that you gave. And in the next quarters, what will the trend be?
I think we do expect the GP margin to drop. This is what we have seen over the last year also in Q1, this is very usual for our SG&A ratio to be higher than 12%. Why? Because in Q1, our top line is lower. Okay? Plus also in Q1, we start doing some marketing activities. You remember the high season for us will be Q2, Q3. So we start to increase our marketing activities.
So there is nothing to worry about. 12.7% is higher than the full year guidance. But we do expect it will drop in the next quarters, and we do expect the whole year to be in line with our guidance. So there is no concern on that.
And about the minority interest this quarter is quite -- slightly higher than my expectation. So assumption that i-Tail will be better, TFM will be better, so the numbers of the minority interest each quarter will be higher as well, right?
That's correct. So in Q1, you're right. We are facing an increase of the minority interest impact mostly due to i-Tail and also TFM. But this is not a bad news, okay? We are very happy to have higher minority interest because it means that the net profit is just increasing and we are just sharing a portion with them.
At the end it will be increased, right? Anyway. At the end, it will be increased, right?
Yes. We do expect it to increase because we do expect i-Tail and TFM performance to improve. We have also some other minority interest in our Frozen business, but this is smaller. So the biggest impact is really i-Tail and TFM.
[Interpreted] Question about the sales in Thailand. They're lowering. What situation are you facing? And for the rest of this year, how is it going to be?
Ambient sales?
No, no. Overall sales in Thailand, it decreased in the first quarter. Do you think it will continue to decline for the rest of the year?
No, I think we are quite confident for the overall country to not grow a lot. Our sales were quite good also last year. So the baseline was really low in Europe last year, mostly. Now they're recovering in Europe. We don't expect any significant change in Thailand this year. So we are not concerned about that.
[Interpreted] I'd like to ask about Red Lobster for a few more details, please. I'm not sure right now the process of selling your shares, where are you? And when will it end? -- When there's news about Red Lobster, of course, it's going to worry us from our side. So what is the time line going to be like?
So here, we started the process of selling the shares. It's not a quick process, okay. We told you in Q4, we took the decision to divest. Now the process is effective, has started. We told you it would take a few quarters. We do expect this to be effective in 2024, okay. But I don't think it will be effective in Q2, maybe later in the year, Q4 -- Q3, Q4. This is what we should think about, okay.
Now our exposure is 0 because we put everything at 0, except for our inventories and normal business. So you should not worry about this one. Of course, we want to make sure that we have the right exit, okay? We want to make sure that we don't have any risk of litigation in the U.S. So we are very cautious also.
Is it an easy process? Given the performance of Red Lobster the past few years, you can understand the sales process is not that easy, okay. So we are working very hard here to find a solution with the lenders and with some other potential parties who could be interested also in buying Red Lobster.
She started with Red Lobster, I will continue. So do you think how Red Lobster will end? Is it possible for them, for who, to separate the asset and sell?
So they already sold the restaurants in 2014. They did a huge sale-and-leaseback transaction. So right now they rent the vast majority of the restaurants, back to your question.
So they have no assets, right?
They have a few restaurants [indiscernible]. They have a trademark also which is there. So they still have some assets. But if you talk about the restaurant walls, the vast majority right now, they are already leased.
And so the management right now have no shareholding in the company, right?
They do. They do. So we still have the same shareholding compared to what we had before. We have roughly 15% to 16%. There is no change. So you still have Thai Union owning 49%, Seafood Alliance 30-plus percent, and then the management of Red Lobster. There was no change on that. But we do expect there will be some changes when the exit is effective. Yes, there will be a new shareholding structure for sure.
Okay. If there is no question from the floor, I will move on to the question from online. So right now, we have 5 questions. We will start with the first question. First question. Please provide a percent proportion of committed and uncommitted of unused credit facilities from financial institutions as at the end of March 2024 totaling THB 34 billion?
So here for the timing, we use roughly 20% of our credit line. So this is quite close. We have 80%, which are available. The practice in Thailand is to have mostly uncommitted and committed credit lines, okay. We have never been facing no new renewal of any credit line. So we feel very confident. You've seen also the net debt situation is very strong, okay. Net debt to equity is below 1, and net debt to EBITDA also is now very close to 4. So we don't have any concern at all.
Please keep in mind also that we went to see to get the consent from our lenders earlier in the year because of Red Lobster impairment. We got a very strong support from our lenders. So we do believe a very strong situation, and it's not a concern at all, the access to liquidity or credit facility.
Okay. And for the second question, the question is about the minority interest, which I believe that we touched a little bit previously.
Yes, the minority, you have 3 key components. We mentioned this one, i-Tail. So it's not complicated. You just take i-Tail numbers, multiply by 20 plus, and then you have the minority interest. TFM, 49%, minority interest. So the same, these numbers are public.
Yes. [indiscernible] we own 51%, so the minority is 49%. Okay? So if you want to assess whether the minority part is 49%. And we have also TUF, which is one of our components of our frozen business, okay?
But again, if it is increasing, it just means the net profit before allocation is increasing also. And of course, we keep 80-plus percent of i-Tail, we keep 51% of TFM and the same for TUS. So we don't have any concern with the minority interest. The higher it is, the best it is for us, yes.
Okay. Third question. Please explain the source of fund for debenture maturing in October 2024 of THB 3.5 billion.
So here, this is just normal funding, just normal refinancing. We have been doing a refinancing of THB 12 billion earlier in Q4 last year. So here it's THB 3.5 billion remaining at the end of the year. Nothing to worry about. Very normal one.
Okay. Question #4, please share the recent development of the joint venture with RBF Group.
[Interpreted] RBF, we have 10%, 1 Board seat. And so far, the outlook for this year is good. We're seeing good growth. RBF, aside from in Thailand, there is also investment in Indonesia, in Vietnam, and also in India, where we have helped RBF. There is potential -- good potential for growth. And at the moment, RBF is in the process of building a factory right now in India.
And they are selling by exporting products from here, which is, of course, higher cost. So with their own factory in India, there will be more growth potential.
Okay. Fifth question, what's the utilization rate of value-added business? And what's the outlook? The growth of new customers, new market. And have we reached the breakeven point of operating profit? If not yet, then when?
So it's a bit complicated because the value-added business, it's an accumulation of very different businesses. Again, we have packaging, we have our Ambient and Frozen value-added. We have our supplement, we have our ingredient business. So overall, the percentage of utilization is good. You can see the traction over the past few years and the percentage in our total sales has been increasing. And definitely, we want to push further the weight of the PetCare and also the value-added business.
I'm not sure to understand the last part of the question, when you asked breakeven for the OP. It's a very profitable business, our value-added category, okay? If you look at the gross profit margin, this is one of the highest within the whole Group. We have a few components in this one where, indeed, we have some new business, like the ingredient business. We have a new collagen factory in Thailand. This one, we are in the start-up mode for the time being. So yes, we don't have any positive from that for the time being. But overall, the whole category is positive and with a strong OP margin.
Okay. And we got 2 more questions from online. Number six is a question about tax. Should we assume the effective tax rate in the first quarter of 2024 be a new base for full year of this year?
I think the effective tax rate in Q1 is aligned with our expectation. I told you in Q4, we will get back to a normal situation. The past 2 years where we had some net tax credits were very unusual and only due to Red Lobster. Okay, now Red Lobster is not there anymore. Should we get back to the situation where we were before where we were facing an effective tax rate which was always between 6% to 8%, okay? So this is the guidance I gave you at the beginning of the year. And I think we will be in that range for the whole year.
Depending on the quarters, the profit allocation between countries, region may be a bit different. But for the whole year, we should be very close to this number.
Okay. And question #7. In the first week of May so far, have you seen increasing momentum in tuna price?
[Interpreted] Not yet. The first week of May, no increase yet. But we expect in the second half of May we will begin to see this change. Especially towards the end of May, there will be a tuna conference in Bangkok, and the industry for the entire world will be here in Bangkok. So the price, we will see movement in that period. So the second half of May, that's when we'll see changes.
It will gradually increase. It will gradually increase. Because right now, there is no reason for a sharp increase. There is a lot of tuna in stock, a lot of fish in stock. The factory right now is carrying a stock that is significant. So there's no reason for us to hurry and buy and push the prices up sharply. I think the prices will gradually increase. There's no reason for them to increase drastically at the moment. And there's no need for us to increase our stock. Our freezers, our cold storage are already full.
Keep in mind one thing on the fish price, one of the big driver for the drop over the past few quarters is the level of catches. The level of catches was good. Overall, in the world, we don't see any reason for that to change in the future. And as Kun Thiraphong mentioned, also the level of inventories is higher. So we don't see any reason for a sharp increase.
So we do believe it will be a slight increase. We don't believe it will decrease further compared to the $1,300 that we had at the end of March.
[Interpreted] Are there any further questions?
[Interpreted] Could I please ask?
I think with the mic, it will be easier.
Please give more details or outlook about the 2 factories that you start COD in the second quarter of this year. The culinary and ingredients business.
Yes. So very happy to have finally these factories being ready. So we have -- you're right, the culinary and ingredients, they will start in Q2. We have been working on this over the past 3 years. So very happy that now we are at the end of this one. These are very large investments we have been doing. Culinary, it was more -- THB 1 billion, and you can see the ingredient also.
Culinary, if you remember, these are very different topics. Culinary, we have been consolidating 3 old factories in a new one, okay? It's not a new activity for us, except that we have -- it's much more automated, and we do believe it will be much more efficient. But this is not a new business for us. We know how to operate this one.
Now talking about the ingredients. Here we produce some collagen, tuna collagen, and we produce also some protein. This is a completely new business for us, okay? We don't have anything equivalent in the rest of the group. So this will take more time. This is the first time that some tuna collagen would be produced also. So we need to make sure that the operations are under control, it will take a bit of more time. And then in terms of sales, we are completely new in the market. We are new in the market of the collagen.
So this one is much more middle term. We do believe the culinary will be much more short term. We have already accessed the customers. They already know us, we have been working with them since many years. So the impact of culinary would be quicker compared to the collagen one. The collagen one, very clearly, we do expect some losses for the whole year because it's a new factory. We have some start-up costs. You need to work on the efficiency, the yield. All of this is normal and this is factored already in our guidance. But very happy to see finally this project being live.
[Interpreted] Our culinary factory, as soon as it is open, we can commercialize, because it's a combination of our 3 old factories, TUF, in [indiscernible], altogether under packed food. These 3 factories are now in -- as one. We closed the former -- the old factories. So it will become more efficient. From 1,500 strong labor force, we have decreased this number. It will be more automated. We have new facilities. The latest product that is the dessert from Panda Express in the U.S., and it's doing very well.
And this new factory will enable us to approach global customers, whether it's McDonald's, KFC, and other customers at the same level, Nestle as well, Unilever, for instance. And this factory is ready to run.
[Interpreted] But these 2 factories, their sales, they are in the value-added category, right? And value-added -- could you tell us about the value-added business, the #1 product, the second product, the third product, what's most important or has the most impact, for instance?
So here in the value added, the first one will be the packaging business, okay? In the packaging business, we are producing some cans, mostly for Ambient business and also some plastic packaging. By contribution, this is #1 within the value-added.
Number 2 contribution will be the value-added portion of our Ambient and Frozen business. I'll give you some examples. We are producing in Ambient some salads, okay, the salads, we consider this one to be value-added business. They will be presented in this category. And the same for the Frozen business. All the frozen value-added will be together with this one. So the value-added Ambient and frozen is the second big component of this one.
Number 3 will be the ingredient business, okay? What we've been doing around the crude oil, the refined oil and [indiscernible] the collagen will also be together with our ingredient business. We have also our supplement business TUL life science, which is also in this category. We have some other businesses, our byproduct business, our fish meal product also, they're also in this category, but in terms of contribution, they are smaller. Just for you to keep in mind, the 2 biggest one will be the packaging one and the value-added business.
And the gross margin of this business is quite high? So the -- the one that make it high is the #1, right?
Number 1 and #2. Yes, that's correct.
[Interpreted] The packaging, you use it for your own -- your own company. You're charging yourself?
Not only, yes, we have also some customers from the outside. We always pay a lot of attention to make sure the prices we are charging are at [ arm's length, ] okay? Keep in mind also that some of the profit we are doing in [ Thai Co. ] will be classified also together with the ambient. So we are very careful not to pollute, not to increase. Because if you just increase the prices of your packaging, then the GP margin of the ambient factories will drop. So for us, it's just right pocket, left pocket. Okay? But we are not selling only in [ Thai Co. ]. Our packaging, we have a lot of sales also to third party.
So overall, your packaging, how many percent you -- it's come from this internal operation?
I think from our factories in Thailand, the vast majority, the move we have been doing over the past few years, now Europe is buying a lot also from this facility because it's very efficient. And we want also to do the same for the U.S. moving forward, okay? So now the vast majority of our packaging in Thailand coming from our own operation.
Europe, it's moving on. We have been building also 1 factory in Seychelles, that [ APC ] is also helping to operate on this one. So more and more because it's so efficient, and we are very strong there, we are gradually increasing in Europe and the U.S.
So right now, I would say, from what I have in my mind, I would say, at the Group level, it will be 60%, because also we cannot provide all types of packaging, okay? So we need also to buy some of those coming from the outside. But we do expect this percentage to grow further. Okay? We are not covering all the countries in Europe for the time being for different reasons.
[Interpreted] Two questions, please. The first is just to make sure about the formula for your pricing for the Ambient segment. When the tuna increases or decreases, how do you calculate this? How do you account for this?
And I'm not sure also, if we take a look at only tuna, how much stock do you have? How many months worth? And how long do you keep the inventory? And I'd also like to ask about the other businesses. What business has a put option for your partner where they can buy -- could buy their stake like LDH? Are there any other partners like this?
[Interpreted] First of all, the formula for our prices, it's raw materials plus the conversion cost, mainly. And this is the -- how we come to our prices. We usually -- at the market price, not the cost price. We do market pricing, not cost pricing. That's correct.
And for our stock, inventory will be at about 2 months' worth. The price of fish has been very low, so it might be -- it might increase to 3 months, somewhere around there. And we don't have a policy to buy too much inventory or stock. And another factor is we need to have the storage as well. We have to have cold storage, enough cold storage for the fish, but all of our cold storage is completely full, up to capacity.
And in terms of the minority stakes or put option or option to buy back, we don't have any other partners like that. And this is an investment in -- it's an investment in Europe, let's say, yes, it's a legacy. There's nothing to be concerned about there. But there is no problem. We actually sold at profit and the business continues on, and we continue to trade or continue to do business with LDH.
Just to add on this one. We have a few options, which [indiscernible] on very small businesses, okay? And this is mostly options for us to buy back the minority, okay? We have [indiscernible] which is one of the examples. We have another one in Aegir, a company in Iceland. And this is very small for the business. We had a very large one 2 years ago, it was Rugen Fisch at that time in Germany, and we did execute the option 2 years ago. But apart from that, we don't have a significant put-and-call in the options for the whole Group.
But you're right, Kun Thiraphong is right, this is a very old agreement we had. We have been very happy overall with the LDH investments. Now we cannot refuse when they say we want to execute the option. That was agreed from the beginning. What is important for you is, in terms of business, it will not change anything, okay? Because we have a new trade agreement with them that will contribute to distribute our products in the U.K.
Okay. And due to the time, maybe this is the last question. Question from online. As Thai Union has the investment in Vietnam, can you share the production potential in Vietnam and potential products? And what is medium-term and long-term view for the further expansion either in Thailand or overseas?
[Interpreted] In Vietnam, we have a factory that's known as Yueh Chyang Canning, and that factory produces the tuna canning. There's -- they have 80 to 100 tons. They plan to expand to 150 tons. Vietnam, there's a lot of potential there because they can sign more [ FTEs ] than even Thailand can. And this is the main reason. Thailand right now, we are falling behind others because of our tax issues, tax benefits. So Vietnam will be a base for us for the tuna -- canned tuna.
Just one point, sorry. Keep in mind also Vietnam, they are benefiting from lower duties with Europe. So it's one way for us also to use Asia-based factory to export. You don't have everything which is exempted from duties, but you have some quotas, you have some volumes of finished products that you can export to Europe with lower duties. So this is also one point of attraction for Vietnam.
Okay. Due to the time, I would like to thank everyone for joining us today. And we will now take a 10-minute break and followed by the TFM analyst meeting. And as for me, I'm looking forward to seeing all of you in the next quarter. Thank you.
Thank you.
[Portions of this transcript that are marked [Interpreted] were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]
