Pantoro Gold's 3Q25 production of 18.3koz missed Ord Minnett's forecast due to delayed stoping at Scotia UG that pushed production into April. The broker forecasts an accelerated production of 23.8koz in 4Q.

If this is delivered, it would lead to free cash flow of $48m based on current spot gold prices and no hedging. The broker expects increased cash flow to be invested organically, resulting in mineral inventory increases at Scotia and Mainfield.

Speculative Buy. Target rises to $3.05 from $3.00 on roll-forward of the model and higher cash flows.

Sector: Materials.

Target price is $3.05.Current Price is $2.78. Difference: $0.27 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If PNR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

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