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Market Closed -
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5-day change | 1st Jan Change | ||
| 12.38 AUD | +0.24% |
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-3.21% | +7.75% |
| 04-02 | Origin Energy Ltd Appoints Aleta Nicoll as Executive General Manager, Integrated Gas, Effective July 1, 2026 | CI |
| 03-26 | Australia gas supply crunch pushed out to 2030, market operator says | RE |
Projected Income Statement: Origin Energy Limited
| Fiscal Period: June | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 12,097 | 14,461 | 16,481 | 16,138 | 17,224 | 16,445 | 16,677 | 16,917 |
| Change | - | 19.54% | 13.97% | -2.08% | 6.73% | -4.52% | 1.41% | 1.44% |
| EBITDA 1 | 2,048 | 2,114 | 3,107 | 3,528 | 3,411 | 3,175 | 3,385 | 3,329 |
| Change | - | 3.22% | 46.97% | 13.55% | -3.32% | -6.92% | 6.62% | -1.65% |
| EBIT 1 | 540 | 527 | 1,417 | 1,941 | 1,895 | 1,667 | 1,765 | 1,698 |
| Change | - | -2.41% | 168.88% | 36.98% | -2.37% | -12.03% | 5.89% | -3.84% |
| Interest Paid 1 | -133 | -129 | -143 | -123 | -130 | -154.2 | -225.5 | -239.2 |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) | -1,846 | -874 | 1,478 | 2,003 | 1,596 | - | 1,501 | 1,485 |
| Change | - | 52.65% | 269.11% | 35.52% | -20.32% | - | - | -1.09% |
| Net income 1 | -2,291 | -1,429 | 1,055 | 1,397 | 1,481 | 1,239 | 1,233 | 1,229 |
| Change | - | 37.63% | 173.83% | 32.42% | 6.01% | -16.35% | -0.45% | -0.31% |
| Announcement Date | 18/08/21 | 17/08/22 | 16/08/23 | 14/08/24 | 13/08/25 | - | - | - |
Forecast Balance Sheet: Origin Energy Limited
| Fiscal Period: June | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt 1 | 4,639 | 2,838 | 2,877 | 2,833 | 4,654 | 4,554 | 4,600 | 4,461 |
| Change | - | -38.82% | 1.37% | -1.53% | 64.28% | -2.15% | 1.01% | -3.02% |
| Announcement Date | 18/08/21 | 17/08/22 | 16/08/23 | 14/08/24 | 13/08/25 | - | - | - |
Cash Flow Forecast: Origin Energy Limited
| Fiscal Period: June | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAPEX 1 | 500 | 728 | 680 | 1,062 | 1,699 | 994.1 | 690.4 | 445.3 |
| Change | - | 45.6% | -6.59% | 56.18% | 59.98% | -41.49% | -30.56% | -35.5% |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 | 840 | 369 | -1,313 | 1,296 | 1,207 | 1,974 | 1,665 | 1,649 |
| Change | - | -56.07% | -455.83% | 198.71% | -6.87% | 63.56% | -15.69% | -0.96% |
| Announcement Date | 18/08/21 | 17/08/22 | 16/08/23 | 14/08/24 | 13/08/25 | - | - | - |
Forecast Financial Ratios: Origin Energy Limited
| Fiscal Period: June | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Profitability | ||||||||
| EBITDA Margin (%) | 16.93% | 14.62% | 18.85% | 21.86% | 19.8% | 19.31% | 20.3% | 19.68% |
| EBIT Margin (%) | 4.46% | 3.64% | 8.6% | 12.03% | 11% | 10.14% | 10.59% | 10.03% |
| EBT Margin (%) | -15.26% | -6.04% | 8.97% | 12.41% | 9.27% | - | 9% | 8.78% |
| Net margin (%) | -18.94% | -9.88% | 6.4% | 8.66% | 8.6% | 7.53% | 7.4% | 7.27% |
| FCF margin (%) | 6.94% | 2.55% | -7.97% | 8.03% | 7.01% | 12% | 9.98% | 9.75% |
| FCF / Net Income (%) | -36.67% | -25.82% | -124.45% | 92.77% | 81.5% | 159.36% | 134.97% | 134.1% |
Profitability | ||||||||
| ROA | 1.38% | 1.8% | 3.48% | 6% | 7.19% | 6.9% | 7.12% | 7% |
| ROE | 2.83% | 4.18% | 7.91% | 12.87% | 15.35% | 12.53% | 13.15% | 12.82% |
Financial Health | ||||||||
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | 2.27x | 1.34x | 0.93x | 0.8x | 1.36x | 1.43x | 1.36x | 1.34x |
| Debt / Free cash flow | 5.52x | 7.69x | -2.19x | 2.19x | 3.86x | 2.31x | 2.76x | 2.71x |
Capital Intensity | ||||||||
| CAPEX / Current Assets (%) | 4.13% | 5.03% | 4.13% | 6.58% | 9.86% | 6.05% | 4.14% | 2.63% |
| CAPEX / EBITDA (%) | 24.41% | 34.44% | 21.89% | 30.1% | 49.81% | 31.31% | 20.4% | 13.37% |
| CAPEX / FCF (%) | 59.52% | 197.29% | -51.79% | 81.94% | 140.76% | 50.36% | 41.47% | 27.01% |
Items per share | ||||||||
| Cash flow per share 1 | 0.5463 | 0.3028 | -0.3678 | 0.6442 | 0.2465 | 1.087 | 0.8139 | 0.8499 |
| Change | - | -44.57% | -221.47% | 275.15% | -61.74% | 340.9% | -25.11% | 4.42% |
| Dividend per Share 1 | 0.2 | 0.29 | 0.365 | 0.55 | 0.6 | 0.6059 | 0.6348 | 0.6329 |
| Change | - | 45% | 25.86% | 50.68% | 9.09% | 0.99% | 4.76% | -0.3% |
| Book Value Per Share 1 | 5.551 | 5.823 | 5.166 | 5.487 | 5.781 | 5.781 | 5.904 | 6.006 |
| Change | - | 4.9% | -11.28% | 6.22% | 5.35% | 0% | 2.12% | 1.74% |
| EPS 1 | -1.302 | -0.815 | 0.613 | 0.808 | 0.859 | 0.6903 | 0.7032 | 0.7224 |
| Change | - | 37.4% | 175.21% | 31.81% | 6.31% | -19.64% | 1.87% | 2.72% |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 1,760,921 | 1,722,303 | 1,721,367 | 1,722,603 | 1,715,566 | 1,721,407 | 1,721,407 | 1,721,407 |
| Announcement Date | 18/08/21 | 17/08/22 | 16/08/23 | 14/08/24 | 13/08/25 | - | - | - |
| 2026 * | 2027 * | |
|---|---|---|
| P/E ratio | 17.9x | 17.6x |
| PBR | 2.14x | 2.09x |
| EV / Sales | 1.57x | 1.55x |
| Yield | 4.91% | 5.14% |
EPS & Dividend
Y-o-Y evolution of P/E
Year-on-year evolution of the Yield
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Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise
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