Projected Income Statement: Origin Energy Limited

Forecast Balance Sheet: Origin Energy Limited

Fiscal Period: June 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 4,639 2,838 2,877 2,833 4,654 4,777 5,184 5,139
Change - -38.82% 1.37% -1.53% 64.28% 2.64% 8.52% -0.87%
Announcement Date 18/08/21 17/08/22 16/08/23 14/08/24 13/08/25 - - -
1AUD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Origin Energy Limited

Fiscal Period: June 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 500 728 680 1,062 1,699 1,023 668.5 510.7
Change - 45.6% -6.59% 56.18% 59.98% -39.79% -34.65% -23.6%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 840 369 -1,313 1,296 1,207 1,300 1,126 1,278
Change - -56.07% -455.83% 198.71% -6.87% 7.66% -13.31% 13.45%
Announcement Date 18/08/21 17/08/22 16/08/23 14/08/24 13/08/25 - - -
1AUD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Origin Energy Limited

Fiscal Period: June 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 16.93% 14.62% 18.85% 21.86% 19.8% 18.49% 18.73% 18.99%
EBIT Margin (%) 4.46% 3.64% 8.6% 12.03% 11% 9.47% 9.46% 9.76%
EBT Margin (%) -15.26% -6.04% 8.97% 12.41% 9.27% 8.18% 7.9% 7.72%
Net margin (%) -18.94% -9.88% 6.4% 8.66% 8.6% 7.07% 6.56% 6.66%
FCF margin (%) 6.94% 2.55% -7.97% 8.03% 7.01% 7.75% 6.62% 7.37%
FCF / Net Income (%) -36.67% -25.82% -124.45% 92.77% 81.5% 109.64% 100.95% 110.72%

Profitability

        
ROA 1.38% 1.8% 3.48% 6% 7.19% 6.03% 5.9% 5.84%
ROE 2.83% 4.18% 7.91% 12.87% 15.35% 11.35% 11.3% 12.32%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 2.27x 1.34x 0.93x 0.8x 1.36x 1.54x 1.63x 1.56x
Debt / Free cash flow 5.52x 7.69x -2.19x 2.19x 3.86x 3.68x 4.6x 4.02x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 4.13% 5.03% 4.13% 6.58% 9.86% 6.1% 3.93% 2.95%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 24.41% 34.44% 21.89% 30.1% 49.81% 32.98% 20.97% 15.51%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 59.52% 197.29% -51.79% 81.94% 140.76% 78.72% 59.34% 39.96%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 0.5463 0.3028 -0.3678 0.6442 0.2465 0.8816 0.7691 0.8408
Change - -44.57% -221.47% 275.15% -61.74% 257.65% -12.76% 9.33%
Dividend per Share 1 0.2 0.29 0.365 0.55 0.6 0.6048 0.617 0.6278
Change - 45% 25.86% 50.68% 9.09% 0.8% 2.03% 1.74%
Book Value Per Share 1 5.551 5.823 5.166 5.487 5.781 5.792 5.869 5.997
Change - 4.9% -11.28% 6.22% 5.35% 0.19% 1.33% 2.18%
EPS 1 -1.302 -0.815 0.613 0.808 0.859 0.6327 0.6371 0.6656
Change - 37.4% 175.21% 31.81% 6.31% -26.34% 0.7% 4.48%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 1,760,921 1,722,303 1,721,367 1,722,603 1,715,566 1,715,934 1,715,934 1,715,934
Announcement Date 18/08/21 17/08/22 16/08/23 14/08/24 13/08/25 - - -
1AUD
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E ratio 18.2x 18x
PBR 1.98x 1.96x
EV / Sales 1.46x 1.46x
Yield 5.26% 5.37%
More valuation ratios * Estimated data

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
HOLD
Number of Analysts
11
Last Close Price
11.49AUD
Average target price
12.15AUD
Spread / Average Target
+5.78%
Consensus

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

  1. Stock Market
  2. Equities
  3. ORG Stock
  4. Financials Origin Energy Limited