Projected Income Statement: MonotaRO Co., Ltd.

Forecast Balance Sheet: MonotaRO Co., Ltd.

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 -2,759 1,408 -13,481 -29,391 -33,303 -32,731 -38,552 -52,345
Change - 151.03% -1,057.46% -118.02% -13.31% 1.72% -17.78% -35.78%
Announcement Date 03/02/22 02/02/23 02/02/24 31/01/25 03/02/26 - - -
1JPY in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: MonotaRO Co., Ltd.

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 9,647 11,911 7,959 3,498 23,928 14,433 14,175 10,653
Change - 23.47% -33.18% -56.05% 584.05% -39.68% -1.79% -24.84%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 -2,032 3,572 21,973 25,080 9,798 20,054 29,869 37,638
Change - 275.79% 515.15% 14.14% -60.93% 104.67% 48.94% 26.01%
Announcement Date 03/02/22 02/02/23 02/02/24 31/01/25 03/02/26 - - -
1JPY in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: MonotaRO Co., Ltd.

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 13.85% 13.18% 14.23% 14.86% 15.84% 15.78% 15.98% 15.98%
EBIT Margin (%) 12.72% 11.6% 12.31% 12.86% 13.83% 14.14% 14.35% 14.28%
EBT Margin (%) 12.79% 11.31% 12.1% 12.9% 13.79% 14.13% 14.48% 14.71%
Net margin (%) 9.25% 8.26% 8.58% 9.14% 9.71% 9.8% 9.97% 9.88%
FCF margin (%) -1.07% 1.58% 8.64% 8.7% 2.93% 5.28% 7.08% 8%
FCF / Net Income (%) -11.58% 19.14% 100.73% 95.22% 30.21% 53.9% 71.02% 80.95%

Profitability

        
ROA 27.45% 25.44% 26.27% 19.27% 27.23% 23.73% 23.2% 21.09%
ROE 33.1% 28.4% 27.5% 27.7% 28.7% 28.85% 29.02% 28.32%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) - 0.05x - - - - - -
Debt / Free cash flow - 0.39x - - - - - -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 5.08% 5.27% 3.13% 1.21% 7.17% 3.8% 3.36% 2.26%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 36.72% 40% 22% 8.17% 45.25% 24.09% 21.03% 14.17%
CAPEX / FCF (%) -474.75% 333.45% 36.22% 13.95% 244.21% 71.97% 47.46% 28.3%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 39.65 44.72 53.71 64.6 78.72 87.18 98.36 107.2
Change - 12.79% 20.1% 20.28% 21.86% 10.75% 12.82% 8.98%
Dividend per Share 1 11.5 13.5 16 19 33 37.43 42.85 47.71
Change - 17.39% 18.52% 18.75% 73.68% 13.43% 14.48% 11.34%
Book Value Per Share 1 119.3 145.1 173.9 208.6 246.5 272.5 319.5 364.9
Change - 21.6% 19.87% 19.95% 18.16% 10.55% 17.24% 14.2%
EPS 1 35.33 37.55 43.9 53.01 65.27 75.16 85.25 94.64
Change - 6.28% 16.91% 20.75% 23.13% 15.15% 13.43% 11.01%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 496,831 496,905 496,907 496,907 496,916 491,704 491,704 491,704
Announcement Date 03/02/22 02/02/23 02/02/24 31/01/25 03/02/26 - - -
1JPY
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E Ratio 24.1x 21.2x
PBR 6.64x 5.67x
EV / Sales 2.26x 2.02x
Yield 2.07% 2.37%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
AA
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
HOLD
Number of Analysts
11
Last Close Price
1,811.00JPY
Average target price
2,172.73JPY
Spread / Average Target
+19.97%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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