Against this backdrop, it would not be surprising to see the market punish the dividend cut - the first in four years - even if it is only a half-surprise. On the other hand, to Mercedes-Benz's credit, this reduction is mainly the result of a trade-off: rather than dividends, the Group has opted to focus on share buy-backs.

It bought back no less than EUR7 billion of its own shares in 2024 - EUR4.8 billion during the financial year, and EUR2.2 billion in the weeks following its closing. This brings the total capital returned to shareholders to EUR12.5 billion for the year, a genuine all-time record.

The automaker made the - rational - choice to cannibalize itself in what was - again unsurprisingly - a rather dismal year. Operating profit fell by 31% and free cash flow from industrial activities by 19% in 2024. Conversely, investment in fixed assets rose by 8%.

An illustration of the sometimes bloody operating leverage in the automotive sector: in the automotive segment, sales volumes are down by just 3%, but operating profit is down by 39%. Speaking of segments, Mercedes-Benz's luxury category is in steep decline, with sales down 14%.

Sales are also down on all continents, with a particularly worrying drop in China. This dynamic is a cause for concern, given the strategic importance of the Middle Kingdom market for Mercedes-Benz, which the company's management calls "our second home" and where it sells almost a third of its vehicles.

The introduction of customs barriers in the United States - promised by Trump, but which curiously do not yet seem to have panicked investors - would be another blow. Between overly restrictive European regulations, the blocking of the Russian market and uncertainties in China and North America, the German automotive sector is caught in a vice.

This is tarnishing the results of the restructuring program launched in 2019. Over the course of the program, Mercedes-Benz sales prices rose by 39%, while the fixed-cost structure fell by 19%. The gains are less noticeable on the investment side, as savings on fixed assets have been largely offset by higher R&D costs.

Faced with these challenges, it's fortunate that Mercedes-Benz - like BMW and Volkswagen - is well capitalized, and ready to weather the storm. This has not prevented the company from returning EUR30 billion to its shareholders over the last five years, including EUR23 billion in dividends in addition to the EUR7 billion in share buy-backs mentioned above.

Relate these amounts to the company's market capitalization of EUR57 billion and its valuation of six times earnings, and you'll realize that it will take more to curb investors' extreme and persistent pessimism.